Why house prices are certain to fall

lostinrates

new_home_owner wrote: »

In other words some of the people who are hoping for 50 percent fall, might be able to get a really cheap house now, however if its a nice house in a nice area i doubt they will get anywhere near a 50 percent drop now, or in the very near future.

In my area its the epensive (over £650k) houses that seem to have fallen the hardest.

Hover, there does seem to be there is more movement ATM (this wasn't relly being reflected before). A lot sems to be under offer, quite a few have sold recently. Two £850k+ houses I've been keeping an eye on have been withdrawn from sale ''for the time being''.

mewbie_2

new_home_owner wrote: »

In other words some of the people who are hoping for 50 percent fall, might be able to get a really cheap house now, however if its a nice house in a nice area i doubt they will get anywhere near a 50 percent drop now, or in the very near future.

Let's see where we are in three years time, eh?

new_home_owner_3

mewbie wrote: »

Let's see where we are in three years time, eh?

yes lets see, maybe we should ask that derren brown??

Shatners_Bassoon

I can't see them falling much more, it's all about supply and demand and there's not enough houses out there for people to buy simply because people are not moving as much as they used to because they cannot borrow like they used to,

It's not until interest rates start to rise again that the mortgages will become available again (at decent rates) and then first time buyers can start buying. As soon as the first timers buy then the wheel will start turing and the housing market will become to recover and houses will appreciate once again.

Hold tight it could be a long ride!

mewbie_2

Shatners_Bassoon wrote: »

it's all about supply and demand

No, it's about a bubble. And hopefully a return to normality.

the_ash_and_the_oak

Shatners_Bassoon wrote: »

It's not until interest rates start to rise again that the mortgages will become available again (at decent rates) and then first time buyers can start buying. As soon as the first timers buy then the wheel will start turing and the housing market will become to recover and houses will appreciate once again.

Hold tight it could be a long ride!

not sure about this tbh. feeling that those with larger deposits are making up a larger percentage of current buyers right now (not because there are more of them now, but because transaction levels have dropped as the bulk of ftbs are excluded from the market now).

these more standard buyers (w/out luxury of larger deposits) would normally be less competitive in the market as have access to less funding and would be offering lower amounts. currently they are not offering at all. not sure this section of the markets return will necessarily be the boost you might imagine

the wheel might start turning again but not necessarily at a rate to make prices rise

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

the wheel might start turning again but not necessarily at a rate to make prices rise

Prices are rising now. And have been since February.

Cat695

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Prices are rising now. And have been since February.

Depends how you look at things I guess......they have fallen more than they have risen!!

and seeing as we're coming into the usual winter slump I certainly won't be expecting them to suddenly rise with any great flare

the_ash_and_the_oak

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Prices are rising now. And have been since February.

while this is correct I was responding to Shatners suggestion that a proper return of FTBs to the market would help to boost prices. My response to this is that this currently excluded section of the market would be the section to bid lower (or they would not currently be excluded) - therefore not entirely sure how this section will start to boost prices (bidding lower instead of not at all)

especially if, as you state, prices have risen without them, perhaps they are no longer necessary. not entirely sure current levels of supply or demand would consitute 'the wheel turning again' tho tbh

chucknorris

mewbie wrote: »

No, it's about a bubble. And hopefully a return to normality.

Why on earth do people keep saying this? Are they blind? Is it that they see just what they want to see?

House prices for the last 50 years or so have risen then eventually got above affordability levels and crashed back, recovered then increased again. This is normality right now, we are just near the bottom of the crash part of the cycle, next we will be in the stagnation phase (if not in it already) then we will see gentle (sustainable increases) followed by more substantial increases. Eventually probably in about 15-20 years someone else (or maybe you again) will be saying on this website thank god prices are crashing and we will go back to normality, but this is normality.