August Mortgage Lending drops 13%

zappahey

According to the ticker along the bottom of BBC News 24, CML says 13% drop in August.

http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/2401

(I hate being off sick and watching daytime TV!)

IveSeenTheLight

From the link you provided

Gross lending estimated at £12.6 billion in August

18 Sep 09
Gross mortgage lending totalled an estimated £12.6 billion in August, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders. This represents a decline of 13% from July's revised total of £14.5 billion, but a seasonal fall in lending activity in August is to be expected. Estimated gross lending in the month was 37% lower than last August's total of £19.9 billion.
Despite the seasonal decline in activity, underlying lending levels appear to have stabilised during the summer, with stronger lending for house purchase balanced by lower levels of remortgaging. This trend is unlikely to change for the rest of this year, with a pick-up in housing market activity checked by continuing funding constraints and a lack of ability or incentive to remortgage.
In the CML monthly market commentary published today, CML economist Paul Samter says:

"The likelihood of a significant pick-up in lending remains weak, but the prospects for wholesale funding markets are improving. This could result in a gradual easing in constraints on the supply of funding over time. However, demand from consumers and a prudent approach to lending criteria are likely to mean that the market remains subdued."

We all know the market changes over the winter months.
It is interesting that the estimated lending is lower than August 2008 as well, however the article infers that this is down to lower levels of remortgaging.

It's a cautious market out there and the YoY indicators need to be more deeply looked at than just the heading stat.

inspector_monkfish

zappahey wrote: »

According to the ticker along the bottom of BBC News 24, CML says 13% drop in August.

http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/2401

(I hate being off sick and watching daytime TV!)

09:27 18Sep09 CML: UK ESTIMATED AUG GROSS MORTGAGE LENDING GBP12.6 BLN



LONDON - U.K. gross mortgage lending in August was 13% lower than in July, the Council of Mortgage Lenders said Friday.

Gross mortgage lending - which includes lending for house purchases and remortgaging - fell to an estimated GBP12.6 billion from GBP14.5 billion in July. In August 2008, gross lending was GBP19.9 billion.

The CML said lending in August is usually weaker as Britons take their summer vacations.
"Underlying lending levels appear to have stabilized during the summer, with stronger lending for house purchase balanced by lower levels of remortgaging," the CML said.

The industry body said it's likely to become easier for lenders to raise the funding they need to make mortgage loans.

"This could result in a gradual easing in constraints on the supply of
funding over time," said Paul Samter, an economist at the CML. "However, demand from consumers and a prudent approach to lending criteria are likely to mean that the market remains subdued.

CML Web site: www.cml.org.uk

zappahey

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

From the link you provided

This made me go and explore that site and July's press release was interesting. This little graph shows that the change between July and August 2007 was minimal and make me wonder which pattern is more typical - the 2007 pattern or the 2008/2009.

skap7309

zappahey wrote: »

This made me go and explore that site and July's press release was interesting. This little graph shows that the change between July and August 2007 was minimal and make me wonder which pattern is more typical - the 2007 pattern or the 2008/2009.

A good visual indicator of just how bad things still are and we are still some way of from the green shoots nonsense being rallied by the media. We aint out of the woods yet and i for one am a bear still sh*tting in them.

ruggedtoast

It seems clear to me that aside from the odd probate sales, there is a particularly entrenched view amongst most people that with houses in Greater London you pay £100k per bedroom.

Most new instructions around Middlesex are now being priced back at peak levels. I'll be interested to see how this works out considering how tight mortgage availability is now.

IveSeenTheLight

skap7309 wrote: »

A good visual indicator of just how bad things still are and we are still some way of from the green shoots nonsense being rallied by the media. We aint out of the woods yet and i for one am a bear still sh*tting in them.

Maybe time to look beyond the trees though.

The market is different. The article infers that there is less re-mortgaging.
Simply put, people are still within their tie-in period or are choosing at this time to drop on to SVR's.

When those on SVR's suddenly re-mortgage if they see signs that the rates are increasing, will this be your indicator to stop sh!tting your self

StevieJ

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

From the link you provided



We all know the market changes over the winter months.
It is interesting that the estimated lending is lower than August 2008 as well, however the article infers that this is down to lower levels of remortgaging.

People are not (in general) going to remortgage when the new rate is likely higher than the old rate with a fee on top :eek:

IveSeenTheLight

StevieJ wrote: »

People are not (in general) going to remortgage when the new rate is likely higher than the old rate with a fee on top :eek:

But they will when rates rise.
We'll see a compounded requirement for re-mortgaging.
How will that affect skap's indicator?

geoffky

37% less than august last year!! but the bulls tell me things are improving?? they don't lie do they?

System

Anyone else starting to cringe whenever geoff posts?