Prices to fall as "irrational" rally ends

sjaypink

dunno, always thought i knew what side i was on but ive got splinters up my ar*e the last week or so

a surprising number of people i know have announced they are buying- i dont know whether theyve actually secured a mortgage, but the intent is certainly there

not saying i think further increases, just not sure about another crash (the 'w')

Masomnia

"However, there will be some great bargains for anyone with a few iodine pills, a radiation suit and a flamethrower. So it's not all doom and gloom."

Amcluesent is sorted then!

macaque_2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages-and-homes/house-prices/article.html?in_article_id=490604&in_page_id=57&expand=true#StartComments
Only time will tell I guess, but this is the side of the fence I'm most certainly sitting on.

Graham

Whilst I agree with the underlying sentiment of your post, I think this rally is entirely rational.

Our schools have turned out a generation of people who move their fingers across the page when they read and can only count to 20 with their shoes are off.

The banks meanwhile are selling these bright young things 'time bomb' mortgages at irresitable rates of interest. They forget to mention that 'affordability' changes with the interest rates.

On the other side of the equation 'savvy' house sellers with IQ's of 40 are absorbing the hype with relish and hanging on to their second and third homes in the belief that house prices will double again over the next 5 years.

So there we have it. One bunch of idiots trying to buy for the wrong reasons off another bunch of idiots who refuse to sell for the wrong reasons.

Meanwhile, sneaky lenders are exploiting the situation by shifting their lending portfolios from flakey borrowers to people with large deposits.

It seems the tulip season is with us for another year or two.

JonnyBravo

macaque wrote: »

It seems the tulip season is with us for another year or two.

So there we have it. The 70% club is defunct.

Their cheerleader is now predicting 70% rises as a minimum it would seem.


For 2 years!

:j

:rolleyes:

nearlynew

Beware of the bull trap.

tommy75

nearlynew wrote: »

Beware of the bull trap.

macaque wrote: »

another year or two.

I'm getting tired of this, im going in my cryogenic capsule. Can someone press the de-ice button on it when houses are nearly affordable again and I can get a good mortgage rate without a massive deposit. Wait, I could use the time machine instead..

Generali

StevieJ wrote: »

I must say when I see turkeys forecasting Christmas and smiling I wonder what is in it for them

HSBC put out a research note once regarding a Turkish election in late December entitled, 'Turkey Votes for Christmas'.

Something is going to have to give in the UK housing market at some point. Sales can't remain at the current depressed levels indefinitely as ultimately people will need to sell to move jobs, have kids and release equity so they can retire as well as the forced sales of probate and repossession.

At present, the banks either can't or won't lend enough money to people to support higher levels of transactions at current prices as we can see through the roughly static M4 money supply numbers (that is the money supply including credit creation by banks). If the housing market is going to start functioning again, either lending is going to have to be loosened or prices fall. As the total amount of lending available at present isn't enough to support transactions at current prices if volumes rise.

LeeSouthEast

Dead cat bounce.

Generali

LeeSouthEast wrote: »

Dead cat bounce.

You can't have a dead cat bounce where you can't go short.

LeeSouthEast

Dead hamster bounce then.