Debate House Prices
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MSE News: Inflation falls to lowest level since November 2004
Former_MSE_Guy
Former MSE 1.7K Posts
This is the discussion thread for the following MSE news story:
"Inflation slid to its lowest level in almost five years during August, official figures showed today ..."
"Inflation slid to its lowest level in almost five years during August, official figures showed today ..."
Read the full story:
Inflation falls to lowest level since November 2004
Inflation falls to lowest level since November 2004
0
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LONDON, Sept 15 - British consumer price
inflation slowed less than expected in August as transport
costs rose, partly offsetting a downward impact from utility
bills and food prices, the Office for National Statistics said
on Tuesday.
*********************************************************
CPI KEY FIGURES
AUG JULY F'CAST
CPI %YY 1.6 1.8 1.4
RPI %YY -1.3 -1.4 -1.5
RPI-X% YY 1.4 1.2 1.2
KEY POINTS
- Lowest annual CPI rate since January 2005
- Lowest annual rate of food and non-alcoholic beverages
inflation since June 2006
- Lowest annual rate of services inflation since August 2006
ANALYST COMMENTS:
STEPHEN LEWIS, MONUMENT SECURITIES
"Obviously it is not as good as expected and there is no
tendency for core CPI rate of inflation to moderate which must
be worrying to the MPC because it casts doubt on their
forecasts. Looking at the components this month, we seem to have
more of a bounce back in furniture and household equipment after
seasonal July sales than is usual."
(MSE Andrea says ok!)
CPI 1.6% down from 1.8%
RPI -1.3% up from -1.4%
RPIX 1.4% up from 1.2%
"UK inflation slows less than expected in xxx"
Also are benefits linked to RPI in Sept each year - do we expect to see them fall ?
Moneyweek, December 2005
I assume that this will have little/no bearing on the chances of interest rate increases?
Why is it worrying for the MPC?
09:30 15Sep09 UK AUG CPI ALL GOODS +0.6% YY, ALL SERVICES+2.9% YY, LOWEST SERVICES RATE SINCE AUG 2006
09:30 15Sep09 ONS- BIGGEST DOWNWARD EFFECT FROM GAS, ELECTRICITY, FOOD; BIGGEST UPWARD IMPACT FROM TRANSPORT
Sept 15 - The Office for National
Statistics released the following consumer price indices:
AUG JULY
CPI (HICP)
Mth-on-mth (pct) 0.4 UNCH
Yr-on-yr 1.6* 1.8
Core CPI (ex- energy, food,
(alcohol and tobacco)
Mth-on-mth (pct) 0.6 UNCH
Yr-on-yr 1.8 1.8
RPI
Mth-on-mth (pct) 0.5 UNCH
Yr-on-yr -1.3 -1.4
Index 214.4 213.4
RPIX (RPI ex-mortgages)
Mth-on-mth 0.5 UNCH
Yr-on-yr 1.4 1.2
NOTE - Consensus forecasts: (in percent)
mth/mth yr/yr
CPI 0.3 1.4
RPI 0.2 -1.5
RPIX 0.2 1.2
COMPONENTS OF CPI (pct):
AUG YR/YR JULY YR/YR
Food & non-alcoholic bevs -0.6 2.2** -0.4 4.1
Alcoholic bevs & tobacco 0.4 4.1 0.3 4.1
Clothing & footwear 1.3 -8.2 -3.2 -8.1
Housing,water,elec,gas,fuels 0.2 3.3 0.1 5.2
Furniture, hhold equip, main.1.5 3.0 -2.7 2.4
Health 0.5 2.9 0.7 2.5
Transport 1.6 0.3 1.7 -1.4
Communication -0.1 1.2 UNCH 1.5
Recreation & culture 0.2 1.8 0.1 2.0
Education UNCH 8.6 UNCH 8.6
Restaurants & hotels 0.1 2.0 0.1 2.0
Misc. goods & services 0.1 2.0 0.4 2.1
All goods 0.5 0.6 -0.6 0.7
All services 0.4 2.9*** 0.7 3.1
Fuels and lubricants 1.0 -10.0 0.7 -15.1
RPI housing component 0.4 -11.2 0.4 -11.3
* Lowest annual CPI rate since January 2005
** Lowest annual rate of food and non-alcoholic beverages
inflation since June 2006
*** Lowest annual rate of services inflation since August 2006
(MSE Andrea says ok!)
I'm gonna look at this for the next 6 hours, then post to see if I've come anywhere near understanding it!;):D
sorry, it doesn't paste very well !!
(MSE Andrea says ok!)
Don't worry about that, I'm grateful to you for sharing the information.
Just gotta work out how to read it!;):cool:
I bain't no city high flyer!
It might be easier to read here:
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/cpi0909.pdf
What's complicating things is that prices were falling last year but are rising now. If you look at the rise in the index over the last 6 months, it's about 1.5% up, around 3% annualised. So, in theory, if nothing changes, annual inflation in 6 months will be 3%, over the 2% target.