Halifax HPI due at 9.00am Thursday

inspector_monkfish

16:19 09Sep09 Halifax Aug HPI due at 9.00am on Thur, pre-BoE

15:18 GMT - The [HALIFAX AUG HPI] has now been confirmed for release at 8.00GMT tomorrow and is likely to post another strong m/m increase of around 1% that would result in the y/y rate improving to 10.1% from -12.1% in Jul.

According to the lender, higher demand combined with the low levels of
properties available for sale is boosting sales activity at present,
though from very low levels. Last month's survey also found that the
house price to earnings ratio, a key affordability measure, had declined
from a peak of 5.84 in Jul 2008 to 4.36 in Jul 2009, just above the l/t
avg of 4.

Separately, ex-BoE/MPC member and arch dove [BLANCHFLOWER] has
been talking rather negatively on UK recovery prospects, saying they
remain fragile and in his view the CB will deliver more QE as a result.

He also suggests the BoE made the recession worse than it would have been and that he was close to resigning due to economic outlook differences.

moonshine

inspector_monkfish wrote: »

that would result in the y/y rate improving to 10.1% from -12.1% in Jul

from -12.1% to 10.1% (as in +10.1%)? :eek:

or is that not what you meant

Graham_Devon

Are we doing guesses?

+23.4%

Afriend_2

Individual month of month movements fluctuate too much to be particularly significant. What's worrying is those buying homes now through fear of missing the boat may not be able to afford the repayments when QE stops, tax rises or unemployment worsens.

mewbie_2

Afriend wrote: »

What's worrying is those buying homes now through fear of missing the boat may not be able to afford the repayments when QE stops, tax rises or unemployment worsens.

I must admit to laying awake at night, [STRIKE]mastur[/STRIKE] worrying about it.

FungusFighter

Afriend wrote: »

Individual month of month movements fluctuate too much to be particularly significant. What's worrying is those buying homes now through fear of missing the boat may not be able to afford the repayments when QE stops, tax rises or unemployment worsens.

But the recession's over mate, don't you read the papers?

Next boom due feb 2010 (:rotfl:)

Afriend_2

FungusFighter wrote: »

But the recession's over mate, don't you read the papers?

Next boom due feb 2010 (:rotfl:)

As I have said before; Until my woolies have been frequented the country is not out of recession.

mewbie_2

Afriend wrote: »

As I have said before; Until my woolies have been frequented the country is not out of recession.

Is that incredibly rude? Or is it the Fungus effect?

Jonbvn

Isn't the BoE IR announcement tomorrow also?

Surprisingly, I have seen a mention of a possible cut.........

Afriend_2

If the BoE committee members are desperately trawling through these threads to learn how the economy works; we would like negative interest rates. Cheers.

IveSeenTheLight

Afriend wrote: »

Individual month of month movements fluctuate too much to be particularly significant. What's worrying is those buying homes now through fear of missing the boat may not be able to afford the repayments when QE stops, tax rises or unemployment worsens.

You worry that individuals who have recently bought may not be able to afford the repayments when: -

QE stops - How will this affect the mortgage they have agreed?

Tax rises - Surely tax rises would affect the majority, not only recent house purchasers. If you meant Interest rate increases, then there is a strong possibility anyone purchasing recently would have seriously looked at a long term fix with the rates being so low.

Unemplyment worsens: - This would possibly only affect those directly made unemployed. With the estimates of the unemplyment figure reaching 3 million (a further 600,000), I would envisage that the number of these additional 600,000 who have recently purchased may be quite small

In general, I see the stories of QE stopping, unemployment, interest rate rises, tax rises etc as scaremongering. Sure, take the factors into consideration the belief that there will be so many in trouble is just not so likely.