OECD: UK will miss start of recovery

Graham_Devon

The global economy may recover earlier than first thought, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has said.

But it said the UK economy would shrink by 4.7% this year, compared with its earlier forecast of a 4.3% contraction.

That is also worse than the 3.5% decline the UK Treasury has predicted.

The OECD expects both the US and the eurozone to exit recession in the third quarter, saying developments in recent months had been "mostly favourable".

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8235763.stm

Did we miss the boat?! Anyway, would this point to the OECD maybe thinking 3rd quarter GDP may not be positive?

Masomnia

Maybe it's because people are saving and paying down debt rather than spending?

Does sound like they're sceptical about Q3 growth here. I reckon there'll only be a few 0.something% in it anyway, ie. a small decline, or a small amount of growth; not enough either way to be noticed by the man on the street.

Hehe I think anyone on here could tell them things were going to be worse than the treasury's prediction!

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Anyway, would this point to the OECD maybe thinking 3rd quarter GDP may not be positive?

No, sorry.

Graham_Devon

Masomnia wrote: »

Maybe it's because people are saving and paying down debt rather than spending?

Does sound like they're sceptical about Q3 growth here. I reckon there'll only be a few 0.something% in it anyway, ie. a small decline, or a small amount of growth; not enough either way to be noticed by the man on the street.

Hehe I think anyone on here could tell them things were going to be worse than the treasury's prediction!

It's just been widely reported that the recession COULD be over. But this prediction from the OECD states in the 3rd quarter, Germany and France are likely to come out of recession and into recovery. No mention of us. But they also predict a further contraction for us.....which points to them, with their data, seeing us as negative in the third quarter.

Maybe not much, but I personally was expecting to be out of recession this 3rd quarter, which, if were all honest, I reckon a lot of people on this forum were, looking at the news.

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

IGermany and France are likely to come out of recession and into recovery.

France and Germany are out of recession.

mbga9pgf

For how long?

Really2

mbga9pgf wrote: »

For how long?

At least 6 Months.

mbga9pgf

very good point. Thats the problem with those definitions, they are biased for recovery and not evenly skewed.

Really2

mbga9pgf wrote: »

very good point. Thats the problem with those definitions, they are biased for recovery and not evenly skewed.

It is because overall growth is the norm, otherwise any dip would be a recession, it is very rare for 2 X 1/4 of falls are not followed by another 1/4 (most recessions tend to be 6 quarters)

It seems to be quiet a good yard stick for judging a recession from a dip.
(EG the dotcom bust)

mbga9pgf

Your right of course. The problem is, that isnt how the stats are read by the wider audience. The perception is that once the recession is over, we are back to roses. Most dont realise that most of the pain comes AFTER the recession has finished.

Really2

mbga9pgf wrote: »

Most dont realise that most of the pain comes AFTER the recession has finished.

I think the most would be the ones that have never been affected by one.

One thing is for sure it is better to be coming out of one than getting deeper in to one.