A question for the optimists

System

Something's not right there as the figure on the right goes up when it says -0.2

Cannon_Fodder

see my edit...

chucky

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

Getting confused, thought it was said to be 6 after Nationwides August figures...?

Now re-reading the Nationwide release, its only 4...?

seasonally adjusted it's 4.
taking the index as it is un-adjusted it's 6 months rising.

don't forget it's only the nationwide... and it's only mortgage approvals bla bla bla

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

Getting confused, thought it was said to be 6 after Nationwides August figures...?

Now re-reading the Nationwide release, its only 4...?

What are you basing 7 on...?


Edited to add; I see it, you are taking non seasonally adjusted, just because it suits your spin.

Spin???

Non seasonally adjusted prices (ie, the actual spin-free prices) rose for the last 7 months.

Perhaps you need to adjust your perception of reality.... The non-seasonally adjusted prices are the real deal, reflecting what people are paying in the market. The seasonally adjusted ones are the "spin"...

I think we need to have a "its not 6 or 7 months really, but only 4 months" thread, it is after all the headline figure that matters to sentiment...

By all means start your thread, as I'd love to see you humiliate yourself further by stating non seasonally adjusted prices are "spun".:rotfl:

And as prices have in fact risen every month ofr 7 months, I'd suggest sentiment is just fine at the moment.

Cannon_Fodder

Its fine to mix between seasonal and non-seasonal here, with analysis, debate and argument etc. I'm not trying to say "real" prices don't exist.

My point is that for sentiment to be affected, "improved" as you would term it, the "good news" of 7 months prices rises has to get out to the general populace.

Instead of which, we have had;

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article13034.html "The price of a typical house rose for the fourth consecutive month in August"...

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages-and-homes/house-prices/article.html?in_article_id=490112&in_page_id=57 "The report from Britain's biggest building society recorded its fourth month in a row of rises"

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/aug/27/uk-house-prices-rise "The lender said prices rose for the fourth month running in August"


I'm sure that 4 months is enough for some people to think its back to normal, full steam, etc...just not as many as if it was widely reported as 7 months...

Hopefully it will still be enough that the temporary shortage in nice properties is halted by owners being sufficiently encouraged to come to market...

chucky

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

Its fine to mix between seasonal and non-seasonal here, with analysis, debate and argument etc. I'm not trying to say "real" prices don't exist.

you're both looking at two different things.

the bottom of the market 'was' February. 'real' house prices have gone up every month since then.

seasonally adjusted they've gone up for 4 months which can imply that the bottom of the market was only 4 months ago which isn't the case as it was 2 months before.

it all depends on the point that you're making because you're making different points and are both right.

Cannon_Fodder

Thanks, chucky. It wouldn't be the first time writing at cross purposes...!

But I don't think even Hamish is saying that sentiment was wonderful in Feb/Mar, so people went out and bought because of it.

More the case, that some people - possibly bored of two years waiting, or seeing their savings deteriorate - decided "time to get on with it", perhaps to get ahead of the "usual" spring bounce, despite the absence of one in 2008.

That extra volume of interested parties, in a market where decent houses maybe didn't appear in the numbers they otherwise might, led to an upward bounce. At least for the 1 index, possible due to the London effect, etc etc...

A couple of months of that got word out on the grapevine, after all some buyers do fall for EA patter otherwise they would save their breath...and then sentiment started to shift leading to a continuation.

Presumably the next stage is that positive sentiment reaches the sellers, brings more "nice" properties to the market - which could lead to further rises if mortgages can be obtained, or could lead to price drops if the cash/good credit people already bought/are deliberately staying out of the market, leaving the low deposit/poor credit people unable to get a mortgage in sufficient numbers to support prices...

Out,_Vile_Jelly

Cleaver wrote: »

Down south then. I have no idea how anyone affords a house. No idea. Kent, Surrey, London, the whole of the South West; I have no clue how young people get a place in most of the towns and cities. Maybe that's just the impression I get, but it looks mental down there. So I don't really understand how anyone buys a house south of Oxford.

If you're not earning significantly above the London/SE average, you almost certainly need to be a dual income household. BoMaD will be providing varying proportions of the funding.

I am only ever going to be able to buy in London if I enter into some Jane Austen-esque marriage of convenience in order to get a two salary mortgage, or if I change my job, lifestyle, hobbies and personality and move out to the dreary but cheap suburbs. Or stop working in Education and start sucking corporate todger. I suppose frenzied home-lust might come upon me and I might want a house badly enough to follow one of these options, but not at the moment thanks.

Although maybe if I went out with someone just to afford a house, perhaps I could earn some ££££s through writing about all the amusing Mr Collins moments in a column for one of the Sunday supplements?

Cleaver

Out,_Vile_Jelly wrote: »

Or stop working in Education and start sucking corporate todger.

Loving that phrase. I'm going to steal it and use it in my everyday parlance if that's okay with you?