BBA mortgage approvals up to 38.2K from 35.2K

chucky

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Fewer people have taken foreign holidays this summer. This could be giving the UK economy a boost while aiding savings.

Close friends are saving in general. Expectations of job losses, higher taxes etc are making people more wary. There is a real unkown haning over us all at the moment.

we can't deny that there is an unknown future but these fgures are positive (some may say unfortunately).

the number of new mortgages for house purchases is at it's highest point since Feb 2008.
the last few months have left a few bearish people in a bit of shock...
what will they be saying when it as high as 2007? :rolleyes:

until unsecured borrowing starts to increase peoples general lending appetite will not return... this will be reflected in the expectations of job losses, higher taxes etc starting to disappear...

Thrugelmir

chucky wrote: »

we can't deny that there is an unknown future but these fgures are positive (some may say unfortunately).

the number of new mortgages for house purchases is at it's highest point since Feb 2008.
the last few months have left a few bearish people in a bit of shock...
what will they be saying when it as high as 2007? :rolleyes:

until unsecured borrowing starts to increase peoples general lending appetite will not return... this will be reflected in the expectations of job losses, higher taxes etc starting to disappear...

Remember NR lent up until February 2008. Only as the main lenders such as HSBC, and more latterly NR itself, have made more money available has the approvals market picked up.

The main lenders still have money available. So approvals could pick up further. The real determing factor is confidence. It wouldn't take much to undermine the fragile confidence there is.

Most people only buy one house. So there is a demand factor that wil slowly come into play. FTB's were kept of the market in recent years. So are now buying but there will still be a price threshold for some.

chucky

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Remember NR lent up until February 2008. Only as the main lenders such as HSBC, and more latterly NR itself, have made more money available has the approvals market picked up.

NR at their peak (only) had 8% of the mortgage market, i doubt that the new lending they have taken out is remotely near this. Lloyds, HBOS and Natwest will soon have a bigger impact on the mortgage market. the government controlling state will force this to happen unless Lloyds look at the rights issue option

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The main lenders still have money available. So approvals could pick up further. The real determing factor is confidence. It wouldn't take much to undermine the fragile confidence there is.

Most people only buy one house. So there is a demand factor that wil slowly come into play. FTB's were kept of the market in recent years. So are now buying but there will still be a price threshold for some.

confidence is key for any improvement in mortgage lending and even house prices...

new mortgage approvals apparently make up 5% of house purchases, we're probably around the 3% level now...

Thrugelmir

chucky wrote: »

NR at their peak (only) had 8% of the mortgage market, i doubt that the new lending they have taken out is remotely near this. Lloyds, HBOS and Natwest will soon have a bigger impact on the mortgage market. the government controlling state will force this to happen unless Lloyds look at the rights issue option



confidence is key for any improvement in mortgage lending and even house prices...

new mortgage approvals apparently make up 5% of house purchases, we're probably around the 3% level now...

NR had 14.5% market share in the second half of 2006 and 18.9% in the first half of 2007.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6994099.stm

The impact of Northern Rocks lending policies on the mortgage market can't be underestimated.

I doubt that HBOS itself is in a good position to lend. Lloyds will use its dominance to rebalance the group mortgage book, and lend on sensible criteria.

The problem for both RBS and LloydsHBOS is the lack of wholesale funding. And I'm not talking about a couple of billion either. They both have massive holes in their balance sheets that need to filled by either more deposits, repayment of capital from existing borrowers or net reduction in lending.

Both RBS and Lloyds have issues to resolve with the EEC. Which may hurt those wishing to borrow. If the EEC decides that shareholders must share the pain further. This cost will be passed on.

chucky

Thrugelmir wrote: »

NR had 14.5% market share in the second half of 2006 and 18.9% in the first half of 2007.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6994099.stm

The impact of Northern Rocks lending policies on the mortgage market can't be underestimated.

it looks like that there mortgage share may vary... but if we're seeing HBOS as 20%, we have to take NR as the same way to show market share. we can't look at net lending :rolleyes:

Share of UK gross mortgage lending of 8.3%, with share of redemptions of 5.9% - generating a net market share of 13.4%. Closing share of stock of UK mortgages of 7.1%.

http://companyinfo.northernrock.co.uk/investorRelations/results/stockEx070124.asp

Northern Rock said that in the first 5 months of 2007 their share of UK gross mortgage lending was around 10%, up from 8.3% in the whole of 2006. However their share of net lending was a phenomenal 19%, compared with last year’s 13.4%, itself an excellent figure, bearing in mind that Northern Rock’s share of UK mortgage assets at the end of 2006 was 7.1%.

http://www.charcol.co.uk/knowledge-resources/ray-boulgers-blog/article/view/city-gets-northern-rock-wrong/509/

Thrugelmir

chucky wrote: »

it looks like that there mortgage share may vary... but if we're seeing HBOS as 20%, we have to take NR as the same way to show market share. we can't look at net lending :rolleyes:


http://companyinfo.northernrock.co.uk/investorRelations/results/stockEx070124.asp


http://www.charcol.co.uk/knowledge-resources/ray-boulgers-blog/article/view/city-gets-northern-rock-wrong/509/

What this shows is how much NR was driving for new business. Interest only mortgages bundled up and securitised through Granite.

The lenders that remain. Such as Lloyds , Barclays and HSBC. Lent on more traditional risk models. Capital repayment being one.

HBOS problems relate to its self certified income model. Which will take Lloyds a few years to unravel. Question marks must hang over the level of bad debt and fraud in their mortgage book.

The lack of securitisation is why net lending is now so low. The securitised i/o mortgage market has gone forever. We are heading back to pre 1999 days I suspect. A more normal credit rationed market. The NR securitised book stood at £127 billion after 8 years in 2007, and NR still now has £90 billion of assets on its books. So thats say £210 billion of debt still outstanding. This still over 16% of total outstanding mortgage debt.

mewbie_2

Testing. Just want to see if you babies have got me ppr'd yet?

edit: oh no. apparently not.

chucky

Thrugelmir wrote: »

With net lending at its lowest for 9 years. This bull market may be running out of steam.

Enjoy the news.

With rising unemployment you would not expect people to be paying of debts.

Consumers also continued to boost their savings levels, depositing £2.5bn in July, the second highest figure this year.

Pretty impressive for these economic times

chucky

Really2 wrote: »

Do they have to be the same as the hight of a boom to be stable?

chucky wrote: »

no apparently 45,000 is price neutrality for the current volume of house sales.

price neutrality is happening now... :rolleyes:

80,000 monthly approvals aren't needed for current sales volumes

mewbie_2

Quote:
Originally Posted by Really2
Do they have to be the same as the hight of a boom to be stable?

Quote:
Originally Posted by chucky
no apparently 45,000 is price neutrality for the current volume of house sales.



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