But, but, but.... they said it was a bull trap.

ruggedtoast

chucky wrote: »

the only one that i really house price wise is NW London - for me the cheapest value wise is somewhere around Maida Vale, Lisson Grove (next to St Johns Wood) that have had some good price hits. anywhere your specifically likeing?

but i think the 'better' properties are being snapped up quite quickly.

Ah - no , no chance of affording those areas, I dont even look there - well a flat maybe - not much fun with a baby though.

We did go see some places for £187,000 in Epsom yesterday but the street was all rusting cars on bricks and boarded up shops. Still even those were going for £225,000 a year ago.

I have to be able to get to my job in West London unfortunately, otherwise we could just move somewhere cheap like Kent and commute to London Bridge like everyone else.

Yakubu22

chucky wrote: »

two things, they're both only my opinion

1. Mortgage rates will be higher. the total price of buying a house will be more expensive. an example, paying 2% more interest on your mortgage on a £160k property is £16k more you pay in mortgage interest - that's 10% extra your paying.

2. Prices have risen 7.5% since February. That needs house prices to drop more than 7% plus the mortgage interest plus your rent to have justified you not buying a house. so you need another 20% off for this to be in your favour for you to have made a good move - are you expecting more than 20% to fall of house prices and them worth £127,000... not in my opinion...

This is just my opinion and i'm not saying buy now as people do have different circumstances and some only need a small mortgage...

I take your point, but you've assumed a 2% IR increase. Given such an increase I think this could trigger faster price falls in itself.

When you buy your house initially, you're paying mostly just interest anyway. If i can save £600 a month for a year thats an extra £7000-£7500. Which could equate to around £15,000 off over the term of an average mortgage.
If prices are only stagnanting at best then i'm happy to sit tight, build up a bigger deposit and then buy. Meanwhile i can rent somewhere cheap and cheerful in the knowledge I can move anytime I want.

again, just my take on things and not a suggestion to everyone

chucky

Yakubu22 wrote: »

I take your point, but you've assumed a 2% IR increase. Given such an increase I think this could trigger faster price falls in itself.

you've had mortgage rates go up 0.9% on Fixed rates since Feb and there have been price increases an no falls. i'm not talking base rates here but the interest cost of your mortgage.

i agree when you're talking base rates but the lenders don't work like that.
they're not going to advertise everywhere that they've increased rates.
they close the product and release a new product with a different rate.

Yakubu22 wrote: »

When you buy your house initially, you're paying mostly just interest anyway. If i can save £600 a month for a year thats an extra £7000-£7500. Which could equate to around £15,000 off over the term of an average mortgage.

sort of right but you're delaying/adding the initial 4-5 years that you're paying the larger amounts of mortgage interest to your mortgage life.

Yakubu22 wrote: »

If prices are only stagnanting at best then i'm happy to sit tight, build up a bigger deposit and then buy. Meanwhile i can rent somewhere cheap and cheerful in the knowledge I can move anytime I want.

you have to believe that mortgage rates won't affect you here and the cost of getting the finance won't go up.

one thing that you haven't mentioned that is in your favour is how much you can save, increasing the deposit and reducing the amount of mortgage and also future interest repayable. i'd say that you'd have to work out if this in your favour too...

Harry_Powell

StevieJ wrote: »

I wouldn't, not impressed with that guy particularly (except for the ruck of dosh he trousered from the sale of H&l :eek:).

You might not be too impressed with him compared with other financial pundits and experts but I can happily say that I'd listen to his views over the likes of Hamish.

Saying that, I have nothing against any of the so called 'bulls and bears' on here, even the more extreme ones. It's all good fun and whatever they say has absolutely zero impact on wider events. The forum merely passes the time while I find a house I like and buy it.

Conrad

The perma - pessimists are vastly out numbered by the general optimism in the populace.
As such, recovery is guaranteed.

Conrad

Harry_Powell wrote: »

You might not be too impressed with him compared with other financial pundits and experts but I can happily say that I'd listen to his views over the likes of Hamish.

Mmm, a bunch of amateurs over on HPC predicted the credit crunch back in 2004. IMO experts are pretty much the last to smell the coffee. Too much rear view stat analysis - too little real world nouce.

StevieJ

Harry_Powell wrote: »

You might not be too impressed with him compared with other financial pundits and experts but I can happily say that I'd listen to his views over the likes of Hamish.

Saying that, I have nothing against any of the so called 'bulls and bears' on here, even the more extreme ones. It's all good fun and whatever they say has absolutely zero impact on wider events. The forum merely passes the time while I find a house I like and buy it.

You are good I will give you that.

StevieJ

Conrad wrote: »

Mmm, a bunch of amateurs over on HPC predicted the credit crunch back in 2004. IMO experts are pretty much the last to smell the coffee. Too much rear view stat analysis - too little real world nouce.

Too much CYA

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Yakubu22 wrote: »

Some of the bulls here have forgotten what they posted on another thread only yesteday. They claimed that prices had further to fall in the short term.

I said prices will probably dip over next winter, but they won't dip to the lows already seen last winter.

So why buy anything that will be worth less over the coming months?

If you're going to use that logic, you'll never buy.

Prices fluctuate. Nothing goes up in a straight line.

Harry_Powell

StevieJ wrote: »

You are good I will give you that.

Sorry, you lost me with that comment. Good at what? Quoting HL? I do have original thoughts, only the HL article said what I was thinking in a more concise way than I ever could.