5 year fix @ 4.24%

heart_not_head

Hi, I booked this deal in June to drawdown early next year as I owe £120k on one income and wanted security of a ceiling on payments.
Alternative is I stay on 3.69 variable rate and gamble on mortagages becoming more competitive after the election.

Or the Co Op +1.98 3 yr tracker
Or the HSBC -1.45 2 year discount

Grateful for opinions plse

Cannon_Fodder

BoE have based their justification for QE on there being 4% base rate by 2012, which means 6%-ish mortgage rates...and they have under-estimated inflation 9 times in the last year...

To me, that makes it a major gamble to hope that rates will be anything like as good as that 4.24% deal after the next election.

rammster

keep the 4.24 % deal

heart_not_head

I know the bank predicted around 4% by 2013

But recent reports

suggests BR @ 0.5 until 2013 and the end of Kings governership of BoE

(Not allowed to paste the link to Guardian 19th Aug)

This would give trackers the edge?

Cannon_Fodder

Not sure I trust the BoE much more than the Gaurdian, but as their Inflation Report and models for the future were based on 4% by 2012, it presumably means;

Either;

- It will be as forecast, their models will work, the out-turn with be as planned and base rates will be as specified.

or

- It will NOT be as forecast, their models will be irrelevant and either;

- inflation will be under target, i.e. little growth with which to recover from recession, resulting impact on Govt revenues etc, higher taxes etc, or
- inflation will be over target, which will mean interest rates above where expected.