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Crash crash crash part 2!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!
RDB
Posts: 872 Forumite
Dr Jean-Paul Rodrigue's Manias and Bubbles.
As you can see, it's a virtual mirror of our own housing index (below).
Our housing market has played out right to the script.
http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/property/uk-house-prices-will-plummet-look-at-this-scary-chart-14664.aspx
As you can see, it's a virtual mirror of our own housing index (below).
Our housing market has played out right to the script.
http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/property/uk-house-prices-will-plummet-look-at-this-scary-chart-14664.aspx
Graham_Devon wrote: »All the indicators are now pointing to crash part 2.
Surprising how things can change in a matter of a couple of months.
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The line labelled "mean" is very obviously not the mean trendline of that graph. I'm not sure whether that matters or not.Do you know anyone who's bereaved? Point them to https://www.AtaLoss.org which does for bereavement support what MSE does for financial services, providing links to support organisations relevant to the circumstances of the loss & the local area. (Link permitted by forum team)
Tyre performance in the wet deteriorates rapidly below about 3mm tread - change yours when they get dangerous, not just when they are nearly illegal (1.6mm).
Oh, and wear your seatbelt. My kids are only alive because they were wearing theirs when somebody else was driving in wet weather with worn tyres.
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:rotfl:
Oh dear, not this discredited bear meme again.....
I note your graphs of HPI don't show the market until today, ie, August 2009.
They also don't show the mean value over the last few decades until today.
Nor do they show the attempted bull trap bounce in 2008 that is clearly visible on a combined HaliWide 5 year graph, but was thwarted by the exceptional withdrawal of credit that resulted in a forced and time compressed crash this time around.
Gee, I wonder why....
Ahhh, thats right, it's because we already dipped below mean, and are now in the reverting to mean phase of the bubble graph.:rolleyes:
Epic Fail. Must try harder.;)“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
The line labelled "mean" is very obviously not the mean trendline of that graph. I'm not sure whether that matters or not.
DING DING DING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Someone wins a prize.
Well done you.
We have already dipped below mean in this cycle and are now reverting to it.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »DING DING DING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Someone wins a prize.
Well done you.
We have already dipped below mean in this cycle and are now reverting to it.
No they haven't that is a downright lie. Just like how you lied saying rightmoves July figures dropped. :rolleyes:0 -
:exclamatiScams - Shared Equity, Shared Ownership, Newbuy, Firstbuy and Help to Buy.
Save our Savers
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Errrr, the graph goes back 36 years so we're not looking at this bubble, we're looking at house prices over a very long period. If you're looking for correlation with the famous graph, you have to take maybe the last 8 years maximum, otherwise you lose resolution on the Y axis.
As has been noted before, if you superimpose a long term trend line on that graph of 2.9% compounded HPI, we are now below trend again, so the bubble graph doesn't apply in the form that is being claimed.
The really laughable thing is that if there were indeed a means of predicting the future from graphs we'd have a lovely new paradigm and we'd all be rich.0 -
Dear god, not this graph again. With a Moneyweek quote included no less.
At least you've lowered yourself to the standard of the original thread :rolleyes:0 -
It really is beyond me why people keep trying to explain why this doesn't work. Let those who want to believe get on with it. They are not going to listen to any rational argument as to why it is wrong, so give up on trying to convince them.0
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JonnyBravo wrote: »It really is beyond me why people keep trying to explain why this doesn't work. Let those who want to believe get on with it. They are not going to listen to any rational argument as to why it is wrong, so give up on trying to convince them.
Who died and left you in charge?"I can hear you whisperin', children, so I know you're down there. I can feel myself gettin' awful mad. I'm out of patience, children. I'm coming to find you now." - Harry Powell, Night of the Hunter, 1955.0 -
From an article today.
If you're going to continue to make your own forecasts, try not to fall into the usual traps of getting patterns to fit how you want them to and of ignoring counter-arguments. Do your best to consider all the evidence, not just evidence that suits what you want or supports your existing views. Indeed, try to play devil's advocate for a while to take your view apart.0
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