Sellers drop asking price as competition for house buyers heats up

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

FallenAngel9898 wrote: »

Why, what's going to happen after next winter ?, surely you don't think there will be any serious HPI do you ? Seriously you gotta be kiddin' me.

Roughly?

2010 3%

2011 5%

2012 7%

And that may be conservative.

With 250,000 households being created a year, and only 100,000 new houses being built, there are already going to be 25 people competing for every 10 houses.

Given that affordbaility today is better than any time since 1996, and that in 1996 there was nowhere near the imbalance that exists today regarding shortage of houses versus buyers.....

HPI is locked in and guaranteed.

A more perfect environment for HPI would be hard to imagine.

Prices will double in the next 10 years in real terms, and double again before the next crash.

shakerbaby

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1-mU-YSk32I
:beer:

dfh

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Roughly?

2010 3%

2011 5%

2012 7%

And that may be conservative.

With 250,000 households being created a year, and only 100,000 new houses being built, there are already going to be 25 people competing for every 10 houses.

Given that affordbaility today is better than any time since 1996, and that in 1996 there was nowhere near the imbalance that exists today regarding shortage of houses versus buyers.....

HPI is locked in and guaranteed.

A more perfect environment for HPI would be hard to imagine.

Prices will double in the next 10 years in real terms, and double again before the next crash.

That is the best joke of 2009.

baileysbattlebus

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Don't just mean the stockmarket. (I know you werent suggesting that).

I mean sentiment. The type of reports we are now seeing from those with VI even include a statement of "but hings could get worse" or similar, like some sort of clause they are popping in now to cover themselves. That guy from the BOE (David Blanckflower was it?) even warning not to listen to the hype.

I think in the run up to christmas, unemployment and people struggling with mortgages will be the biggest type of story when talking about houses.

The sun will dissapear and people will start to see through the spin, especially about things like the perfected "best" average wage these "houses are so affordable" are actually based on.

Also places like DSG now wanting a scrappage scheme because sales of white oods have all but diminished. If sales of white goods have diminished because of recession, personally I feel we can take a lot from that. If people aint buying as many white goods, they sure won't be buying as many houses.

All these little stories of how we are coping are giving me more reason to feel as if these low mortgage applications and turnover are held up only by those who are wealthy anyway, not the average joe. Just the other day there was a news report saing deposits by FTB's had jumped from 10% to 23% in 6 months. That's not normal, thats just wealthy FTB's.

People aren't buying as many white goods because they aren't buying as many houses.

Most white goods are bought by first time buyers through necessity when they buy their first property. Even if the property is new and comes with white goods - they have to have been bought by the builder through some form of retailer - they don't make their own.

Next are people people buying new white goods when they move house - a lot of people replace stuff when they move. Again if they move into new property that comes complete with wihite goods, they have to have been bought from somewhere.

And last are the white goods buyers who buy because things need replacing.

If you are a householder, whether tenant or owner you normally replace white goods as they need replacing - not because you fancy a change of washing machine or fridge or cooker. You don't normally think to yourself - I've gone off that fridge - I'll buy a new one, or do you? It's normally something like "oh sh*t, the washers gone again, we'll have to get a new one"

White goods aren't really like consumer electronics, where people might upgrade their TV or computer - you don't normally upgrade your fridge or washing machine, unless you want the latest green machine.

I would imagine the "replacement" market - the likes of me and probably you, is largely unchanged. Unless you want to do your washing in the bath.

A lot of furniture and white goods retailers rely on the housing market, first itme buyers and movers, for a large proportion of their sales, a slump in the housing market means a slump in their sales.

One retailer who will doing well now, will be B&Q, as people will be spending money on their existing houses instead of moving. I haven't looked - but if you look at Kingfisher Group profits - I'd be surprised, very surprised if they weren't up this year. It's what you would expect during a recession and a housing downturn.

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Fixed that for you.

Don't mind what you call it, your agreeing, which is the main thing

Graham_Devon

baileysbattlebus wrote: »

People aren't buying as many white goods because they aren't buying as many houses.

Most white goods are bought by first time buyers through necessity when they buy their first property. Even if the property is new and comes with white goods - they have to have been bought by the builder through some form of retailer - they don't make their own.

Next are people people buying new white goods when they move house - a lot of people replace stuff when they move. Again if they move into new property that comes complete with wihite goods, they have to have been bought from somewhere.

And last are the white goods buyers who buy because things need replacing.

If you are a householder, whether tenant or owner you normally replace white goods as they need replacing - not because you fancy a change of washing machine or fridge or cooker. You don't normally think to yourself - I've gone off that fridge - I'll buy a new one, or do you? It's normally something like "oh sh*t, the washers gone again, we'll have to get a new one"

White goods aren't really like consumer electronics, where people might upgrade their TV or computer - you don't normally upgrade your fridge or washing machine, unless you want the latest green machine.

I'd have to agree with the first part and disagree with the second part.

We have just gone through a consumer based boom. Fridges were replaced needlessly as much as other items. I remember an item on the news a while bak, gotta be a good 3 years, where we were having problems with scrapping white goods, mainly fridges and freezers because of the high turnover.

We've just lived through possibly the biggest ever home improvement, debt fuelled decade, where people revamped their kitchen when they felt like it. Whey suddenly silver goods were the thing to have, which had to all match, or an American freezer was the thing to be seen with.

So like I say, I'd agree with the first bit in that FTB's and movers helped, but I do think we consumed a lot of white (and silver) goods for the sake of matching goods up, or searching for the latest look.

System

Isn't the the same story as the other thread, but with some assumptions wrapped round it?

chucky

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Bear food.......... Bulls if you haven't cashed in after recent rises. You've missed the boat. :rolleyes:



http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/property_and_mortgages/article6798312.ece

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The stock market changes in minutes.

But equities are tradeable , property is illiquid. As some people have yet to find out.

are you seriously taking one months asking price figures as a prediction of what is going to happen in the future... :rolleyes:

in a further post, then acknowledging that property is illiquid which throws the conclusions drawn from asking prices (yes just asking prices) dropping one month in London (during August the quietest month of the year) as the future trend... :rolleyes:

i'm sure there is better bear food than that, by the number of peope thanking your post it's obviously what people want to hear instead of it actually being a reality... sounds quite desperate to leverage so much from asking prices... :rolleyes:

Thrugelmir

chucky wrote: »

are you seriously taking one months asking price figures as a prediction of what is going to happen in the future... :rolleyes:

in a further post, then acknowledging that property is illiquid which throws the conclusions drawn from asking prices (yes just asking prices) dropping one month in London (during August the quietest month of the year) as the future trend... :rolleyes:

i'm sure there is better bear food than that, by the number of peope thanking your post it's obviously what people want to hear instead of it actually being a reality... sounds quite desperate to leverage so much from asking prices... :rolleyes:

Very observant. :cool:

I was rather tired of reading Hamit's ramblings last night. :rotfl:

So thought I would throw some food into the ring.......:rolleyes:

chucky

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Very observant. :cool:

I was rather tired of reading Hamit's ramblings last night. :rotfl:

So thought I would throw some food into the ring.......:rolleyes:

but i am classed as bull which i believe i am not - just a realist...