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Telegraph - HPC not over yet
LydiaJ
Posts: 8,083 Forumite
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/edmundconway/100000472/sorry-the-house-price-crash-isnt-over-yet/
So is the house price crash really over? I’m afraid not - at least not as far as I’m concerned. This is not to say there won’t be plenty of rises as well as falls over the next few years. As this chart from Nick Parsons of National Australia Bank shows, in reality, house price crashes aren’t all about consistently falling prices; during the early 1990s, prices rose quite sharply in some months, but over a three year period they tended to fall that little bit more than they rose.
Halifax monthly house price changes during the latter years of the last slump
The housing market is not like the equity market. Whereas share prices tend to fall sharply earlier than most other asset prices and then recover rather quicker, property behaves more sluggishly, usually dropping gradually and spending a long time at the bottom before slowly gathering pace some time later. A property crash usually lasts five years or so. The reason is that house prices are particularly sensitive to increases in unemployment. When people lose their jobs they sometimes have to move house or, if the worst comes to the worst, have their homes repossessed. It is almost unheard of for the property market to bounce back when unemployment is still rising at a fair whip.
Do you know anyone who's bereaved? Point them to https://www.AtaLoss.org which does for bereavement support what MSE does for financial services, providing links to support organisations relevant to the circumstances of the loss & the local area. (Link permitted by forum team)
Tyre performance in the wet deteriorates rapidly below about 3mm tread - change yours when they get dangerous, not just when they are nearly illegal (1.6mm).
Oh, and wear your seatbelt. My kids are only alive because they were wearing theirs when somebody else was driving in wet weather with worn tyres.
Tyre performance in the wet deteriorates rapidly below about 3mm tread - change yours when they get dangerous, not just when they are nearly illegal (1.6mm).
Oh, and wear your seatbelt. My kids are only alive because they were wearing theirs when somebody else was driving in wet weather with worn tyres.
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he's got it horribly wrong when he says 'A property crash usually lasts five years or so'... in the mid 70s recession there was no house price drops and in the 80s recession there was back to peak prices in less than a year - that isn't 5 years... in the 90s crash it took 6ish years to get back to peak with most of the drops in the first 15 months...
it all depends if you pick the 90s recession or any of the others and they suit your viewpoint.
ps. the 90s recession has the least to do with the current recession...0 -
thought there was one in the 70s but that it was hidden by inflation - ie v little of the drops appeared as nominal?Prefer girls to money0
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the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »thought there was one in the 70s but that it was hidden by inflation - ie v little of the drops appeared as nominal?
yes - that's why i gave all of the HPC's... but in the article he claims they always last 5 years0 -
just meaning there were real price drops rather than nominal price drops (guess it depends on your POV whether these count as drops or not)Prefer girls to money0
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Yay it's Edmund again! Go Edmund!This is a system account and does not represent a real person. To contact the Forum Team email forumteam@moneysavingexpert.com0
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Quite clearly it's not over yet. You don't need the Telegraph to tell you that!
When was the last crash that ended in the middle of a, as the BOE put it, deep recession?
When was the last time that a large part of the population were struggling to pay their mortgage as histrorically low interest rates, that when the interest rates inevitably went up, suddenly, everyone was fine?0 -
Graham_Devon wrote: »
When was the last time that a large part of the population were struggling to pay their mortgage as histrorically low interest rates, that when the interest rates inevitably went up, suddenly, everyone was fine?
2 Parts to that.
1) Well a large part are not struggling it is less than 5% of mortgage holders considering unemployment is higher than 5% I could not call it a large part, a large part would be bigger than those not struggling.
Unemployment is the cause of people struggling not the IR.
2) When was the last time they put the IR up during or towards the end of a recession.0 -
Graham_Devon wrote: »When was the last time that a large part of the population were struggling to pay their mortgage as histrorically low interest rates, that when the interest rates inevitably went up, suddenly, everyone was fine?
that's actually 2.5% of the population that are in arrears- can we call that a large part of the population??
no didn't think so...
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I said struggling.
I didn't say missing payments or in arrears.
You don't need to be near bankrupt or in arrears to be struggling.0 -
rate of struggling SOARING innit0
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