House prices cannot "recover", simple common sense!

boltonangel

my first home in 2002 was bought for £36k, sold in 2004 for £69k and is now up for sale (with no alterations) for £90k.........so no, i don't think prices have dropped the way everyone is making out.

fc123

Cleaver wrote: »

Okay, well for us late twenty somethings who have maybe have a vague interest in property ten years ago, then a desire to buy maybe 6 to 8 years ago, all we've seen is rise, rise, rise. For the first time ever in our buying life, we've seen a drop. And a considerable one.

The media and public sentiment of "they'll never drop" suddenly isn't the case now. So maybe 'bargain' isn't the word, but seeing something suddenly a lot cheaper than you maybe ever thought it would be is quite a strong lever to buy, I imagine.

Things repeat themselves over time. OK, each time there are variations but history does have this habit of repeating stuff.

Was chit chatting to old aquaintance from SE London recently. He recalls panicking in 1987 and buying crud flat for £58k with then girlfriend.

They split up mid 90's and couldn't even get £35k for flat (they did try) so rented it out. Eventually, they sold it for £52k in 1998.

We bought in 1990 after first round of price drops (which I still don't regret lifestyle wise) and seemed , not a 'bargain' but deffo more 'reasonable'...plus we could just about afford it. It was 3 times salary in those days.

I remember not even looking at house prices for a few years.......the internet has a lot to answer for.....can encourage 'OCD' checking on things ...but prices fell further and no-one knew when the bottom would be.
A wannabe 'developer' opposite bought a repo (empty before we moved into area in 1990) in 1993, did a do up bodgit job then couldn't get price.

He then let it our 3 times, each time a disaster. The final disaster was letting it to the homeless man who lived on The Common and always tried to get somewhere for the winter.
He moved in his mates and a brazier (he got cut off) and burnt it down one night after a 'White Lightening session'. The whole front burnt out.

OH and I are trying to remember what he paid and sold for. We think he paid £55k (we paid £60k and were smaller) and sold for £45k after the fire damage was repaired.

fc123

boltonangel wrote: »

my first home in 2002 was bought for £36k, sold in 2004 for £69k and is now up for sale (with no alterations) for £90k.........so no, i don't think prices have dropped the way everyone is making out.

I read (but am not really qualified to comment) about quantitive easing, inflation da de da on here and I feel the 'ticket price' will stay static for a few years (which makes people feel better) but, in real terms, prices are still dropping.

Same as my aquinatance in SELondon. They paid mortgage for 11 years (and yes, it was an endowment) and sold for a lot less in real terms than the ticket price.

carolt

Cleaver wrote: »

Okay, well for us late twenty somethings who have maybe have a vague interest in property ten years ago, then a desire to buy maybe 6 to 8 years ago, all we've seen is rise, rise, rise. For the first time ever in our buying life, we've seen a drop. And a considerable one.

The media and public sentiment of "they'll never drop" suddenly isn't the case now. So maybe 'bargain' isn't the word, but seeing something suddenly a lot cheaper than you maybe ever thought it would be is quite a strong lever to buy, I imagine.

Didn't realise you were so young, cleaver.

I can see that for early 20's, never-known anything-else then drops of 20% musr seem quite exciting, but not really that earth-shattering. Drops round me only take it back to 2004 ish prices. How many people in a position to buy a house can't remember life more than 5 years ago?

People's memories are short, but not that short.

Cleaver

carolt wrote: »

I can see that for early 20's, never-known anything-else then drops of 20% musr seem quite exciting, but not really that earth-shattering. Drops round me only take it back to 2004 ish prices. How many people in a position to buy a house can't remember life more than 5 years ago?

People's memories are short, but not that short.

I didn't say earth shattering or exciting. I was just stating a fact that people my age (and probably many other ages for that matter) just want somewhere to live and are using this price drop as an opportunity to buy somewhere. The friends of mine buying now aren't stupid and don't think they are getting some amazing bargain. They are just bored of living with parents, sick of renting a place and, with a shrug, may as well buy and get on with life.

People must be doing this, otherwise how do you explain recent prices rises?

carolt

Well, not many people, otherwise numbers buying wouldn't be less than a third of normal levels.

Maybe it is just you and your mates, single-handedly moving the property market.

I don't personally know anyone buying or selling at the moment, unusually.

Know a good few stuck where they are due to negative equity, and worried about meeting the mortgage, bought at/near peak.

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boltonangel wrote: »

my first home in 2002 was bought for £36k, sold in 2004 for £69k and is now up for sale (with no alterations) for £90k.........so no, i don't think prices have dropped the way everyone is making out.

I've highlighted the critical part of this statement.

Tassotti

I think the combination of the 'spring bounce' and experts on Bloomberg saying we are no recovering may affect things.

Blips are unfortunate for the many who will now buy (my ex-tenant who's Mummy bought it for him :mad:)

Still going down in my opinion

smk77

Max_Headroom wrote: »

Coupled with the continuing effects of BTL, immigration, shared equity and the rest...House prices will be higher than ever before we know it..

I completely agree with this.

My opinion:

There is a shortage of housing. There is an increasing number of young people who feel as though they'll never get on the housing ladder. Prices are dropping. When houses start to show signs of an increase there will be a desperate rush to jump in to grab a "bargain". The rush will come from those haven't been able afford a house (new builds will be available on shared equity or 25% deposits paid by the builder) and those who think that there will be a huge increase in house prices and jump in - driving the house prices higher.

So, the banks have no money to lend. They will once the money is moving and the first time buyers have their deposits available from sources other than savings...

Cleaver

carolt wrote: »

Well, not many people, otherwise numbers buying wouldn't be less than a third of normal levels.

Maybe it is just you and your mates, single-handedly moving the property market.

I don't personally know anyone buying or selling at the moment, unusually.

But those people buying seeming to be doing so at higher prices though. For some reason(s).

Well, I'm not buying anywhere, happy where we are at the mo. Have quite a few friends who have recently decided to buy, but that doesn't really mean anything of course, and certainly wasn't provding it as evidence of the housing market being a flurry of activity. Was originally just pointing out people's mentalities.

carolt wrote: »

Know a good few stuck where they are due to negative equity, and worried about meeting the mortgage, bought at/near peak.

Yup, know a good few of them too.