The Four Horseman of the BTL Apocalypse.

julieq

No Ad, I've given a number and explained my underlying assumptions. That can be checked and refined. Even with a hypothetical number you can see how the result reduces well below the number in the headline very fast.

And I meant fission. Fission exists now and can be got going within the required timescale if required.

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julieq wrote: »

No Ad, I've given a number and explained my underlying assumptions. That can be checked and refined. Even with a hypothetical number you can see how the result reduces well below the number in the headline very fast.

And I meant fission. Fission exists now and can be got going within the required timescale if required.

Ok, well I think this debate has played out, and we'll agree to disagree. On the energy issue I will be very happy to be proved wrong.

nearlynew

Back on topic................

Whether there are sufficient liar loans "out there" to contribute to a crash is not my point.

My argument is that liar loans played a significant part in inflating the property bubble leading to massive and unsustainable house price inflation.

It was the bubble inflating due to cheap and easy credit that was the problem.
The subsequent bursting and the havoc it is causing is part of the solution.

julieq

The question is whether that hypothesis is borne out by the numbers. It can only have been 45% maximum of loans, so truthful loans were in the majority in inflating the market. Can't be otherwise.

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nearlynew wrote: »

Back on topic................

Whether there are sufficient liar loans "out there" to contribute to a crash is not my point.

My argument is that liar loans played a significant part in inflating the property bubble leading to massive and unsustainable house price inflation.

It was the bubble inflating due to cheap and easy credit that was the problem.
The subsequent bursting and the havoc it is causing is part of the solution.

I agree with this, although I believe there is little havoc yet in the market, in fact some believe it's all over, the real havoc will start after the election. I can honestly say that even if my money wasn't tied up I would never buy a house now unless it was for cash with 35% off peak price.

Pobby

chucky wrote: »

i'm yet to see any evidence that this played the alleged "huge" part in the contribution to HPI in the UK apart from on this site and HPC.co.uk. it obviously happened but no where near the scale that posters on these sites think.

Talking to a friend in the USA, who is a mortgage broker, she said that in her opinion, most of her clients lied in order to get the mortgage they required. Not saying it happened here, but from what I understand, very little was done to check the validity of mortgage applications.

chucky

Pobby wrote: »

Talking to a friend in the USA, who is a mortgage broker, she said that in her opinion, most of her clients lied in order to get the mortgage they required. Not saying it happened here, but from what I understand, very little was done to check the validity of mortgage applications.

i'm sure that was the case in the US, even people between jobs were granted mortgages allegedly... hence the sub-prime issues that they have had...

it has happened here also but not on the scale or even close to how it developed in the US. you just have to look at the large number of equity houses and small banks that have shut down in the US to see that it doesn't compare.

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chucky wrote: »

i'm sure that was the case in the US, even people between jobs were granted mortgages allegedly... hence the sub-prime issues that they have had...

it has happened here also but not on the scale or even close to how it developed in the US. you just have to look at the large number of equity houses and small banks that have shut down in the US to see that it doesn't compare.

Although I agree subprime may not be quite as bad here as in the US, the situation has been 'outed' in the US because people in the majority of States can simply walk away if the payments got too much. What we have here is people cannot do that so are doing everything possible to pay their debt, they are also being helped by low SVR's that many people have fell on to, this of course will change over the next year or two.

the_ash_and_the_oak

both of the previous posts are only 'kind of' true though. many states in the US didn't have a subprime problem and didn't even develop a housing bubble. Also I think it was less than half of the states that had non-recourse mortgages where it was possible to walk away

carolt

http://www.lovemoney.com/news/the-property-ladder/its-a-buytolet-apocalypse-3732.aspx?source=1000415