House prices 'to recover slowly' - BBC Article

Cleaver

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8178214.stm

House prices in England will fall this year and next before recovering, the National Housing Federation forecasts.

It expects prices to fall 12.2% in 2009 and 4.6% next year, before stabilising in 2011 with a 1.1% rise and continuing to climb in the following years.

It predicts that, by 2014, house prices will be 20% higher than current values.

"Our research shows that, while house prices are falling in the short term, they will inevitably increase in the long term because of a fundamental under-supply of housing," said NHF chief executive David Orr.

Bah, anyone can do this malarkey.

House prices in England will fall this year before rising, then falling again, before another little rise, Cleaver forecasts.

He expects prices to fall 7.4% in 2009, before stabilising on 4th February 2010, then rising for exactly eight months, with a 3.1% fall over the next six months before going up and down a bit from then on in.

He predicts that, in the future, house prices will be higher and sometimes lower than current values.

"My research shows that, whilst we all like graphs, speculation and discussion, no one has any real clue. I'd like to bet they will always go up and down quite a lot, with the general trajectory always being slightly upwards over the very long term." said Cleaver, chief executive.

mr.broderick

Cleaver wrote: »

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8178214.stm



Bah, anyone can do this malarkey.

House prices in England will fall this year before rising, then falling again, before another little rise, Cleaver forecasts.

He expects prices to fall 7.4% in 2009, before stabilising on 4th February 2010, then rising for exactly eight months, with a 3.1% fall over the next six months before going up and down a bit from then on in.

He predicts that, in the future, house prices will be higher and sometimes lower than current values.

"My research shows that, whilst we all like graphs, speculation and discussion, no one has any real clue. I'd like to bet they will always go up and down quite a lot, with the general trajectory always being slightly upwards over the very long term." said Cleaver, chief executive.

Morning sir.

Cleaver

mr.broderick wrote: »

Morning sir.

Hello Mr B. How's tricks? I'm a bit jet-lagged so I'm on here and watching a Sky At Night special where Patrick Moore is telling me about something crashing in to Jupiter. I always prefered him on Gamesmaster.

mr.broderick

Cleaver wrote: »

Hello Mr B. How's tricks? I'm a bit jet-lagged so I'm on here and watching a Sky At Night special where Patrick Moore is telling me about something crashing in to Jupiter. I always prefered him on Gamesmaster.

Where have you been ?. Wife dropped a bombshell this evening, her sister is getting married in turks & caicos in may next year, my daughter is going to be a bridesmaid, just priced it up, £7900!!.

1984ReturnsForReal_2

Cleaver wrote: »

He expects prices to fall 7.4% in 2009, before stabilising on 4th February 2010, then rising for exactly eight months, with a 3.1% fall over the next six months before going up and down a bit from then on in.

He predicts that, in the future, house prices will be higher and sometimes lower than current values.

"My research shows that, whilst we all like graphs, speculation and discussion, no one has any real clue. I'd like to bet they will always go up and down quite a lot, with the general trajectory always being slightly upwards over the very long term." said Cleaver, chief executive.

100% spot on... :T

julieq

Cleaver wrote: »

Hello Mr B. How's tricks? I'm a bit jet-lagged so I'm on here and watching a Sky At Night special where Patrick Moore is telling me about something crashing in to Jupiter. I always prefered him on Gamesmaster.

If things can land on Jupiter, they can land here :eek:

I hear there's an unexplained white spot on Venus too :eek:

We're all definitely doomed. Except Patrick Moore who appears to be immortal.

As for the original post, it's surprisingly easy to predict the future with extraordinary accuracy, it is done all the time in the business world. In fact I'm doing precisely that this morning.

On the other hand it's spectacularly difficult to get any of it right. That doesn't matter though because you can always blame it on something unpredictable

themanbearpig

It expects prices to fall 12.2% in 2009

Even I am struggling to see how that is possible.

According to Nationwide
Jan 150,501
Feb 147,746
Mar 150,946
Apr 151,861
May 154,016
Jun 156,442
Jul 158,871

Prices have risen 5.2% this year. So for them to fall by 12.2% in 2009, they need to fall by 3.5% a month from now on! I'm pretty bearish, but that's just silly.

System

They probably aren't using the Nationwide index then.

julieq

It's also a bit mad in that within 5 years they're suggesting 20% increase on current prices with the first couple of years being a fall and a stagnation. So it'll be from a standing start to say 25% from now in three years.

That simply isn't credible.

Unless you can see the assumptions behind the numbers it's just speculation.

julieq

OK, done some digging, in fact the 20% is not until the end of 2014, so in fact this is a 6 year period.

http://www.housing.org.uk/default.aspx?tabid=212&mid=828&ctl=Details&ArticleID=2312

Really2

It looks like they are baseing it on LR pricing (which is sensible) but I still think -12.2% still sounds a bit low, but we shall see.

This report is more like I thought at the end of last year. If I had to predict now I would not predict -12.2% more like -5-7.5%