House prices are still falling - David Blanchflower

ad9898_3

At last, a newspaper article with some realism attached to it, by none other than David Blanchflower. Interesting that four out of the last six months on the Halifax have been down, who would have thought that if you had been reading the Daily Express.

Three of the last seven months of data from Nationwide have been down and four up. The latest data from the Halifax show four down months and only two up. So what is going on?
First, these data are seasonally adjusted by both the Halifax and the Nationwide. That is to account for the fact that there are regular monthly patterns every year. This is a problem now as patterns in the past when house prices were rising aren't very helpful in a period of falling prices.

Over the period June 1989 to July 1995 there were 23 months where prices increased and three where they were flat and 48 when they fell.

House prices probably have a good way to drop yet. Lots of people may tell you otherwise − estate agents, mortgage brokers and bankers − because they have something to gain. My advice is just to look at the data.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/5957481/House-prices-are-still-falling.html

chucky

interesting article - the journalist is using the seasonal adjusted figures...

why would the journalist compare 7 months on the Nationwide and only 4 months on the Halifax - surely he's not trying to give the impression that house prices in the past few months haven't been rising :rolleyes:

just to add balance...
here are the Nationwide since March - a 5.25% increase in house prices

Mar £150,946
Apr £151,861
May £154,016
Jun £156,442
Jul £158,871

and here are the Halifax since March - a 2.25% increase without the July numbers that are also predicting another increase

Mar £156,509
Apr £157,554
May £161,747
Jun £160,054

i'm confused why low sales volumes are important now when prices have increased, when house prices were dropping volumes did not matter...

Degenerate

ad9898 wrote: »

At last, a newspaper article with some realism attached to it, by none other than David Blanchflower. Interesting that four out of the last six months on the Halifax have been down, who would have thought that if you had been reading the Daily Express.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/5957481/House-prices-are-still-falling.html

God knows why he is is bringing up seasonal adjustment, without it the rises would have been bigger.

carolt

Great article - let's see chucky et al try to claim the writer's some vested interest 'cretin' who has no idea what he's talking about. :rotfl:

As he points out,

"House prices probably have a good way to drop yet. Lots of people may tell you otherwise − estate agents, mortgage brokers and bankers − because they have something to gain. My advice is just to look at the data."

ruggedtoast

chucky wrote: »

interesting article - the journalist is using the seasonal adjusted figures...

why would the journalist compare 7 months on the Nationwide and only 4 months on the Halifax - surely he's not trying to give the impression that house prices in the past few months haven't been rising :rolleyes:

just to add balance...
here are the Nationwide since March - a 5.25% increase in house prices

Mar £150,946
Apr £151,861
May £154,016
Jun £156,442
Jul £158,871

and here are the Halifax since March - a 2.25% increase without the July numbers that are also predicting another increase

Mar £156,509
Apr £157,554
May £161,747
Jun £160,054

i'm confused why low sales volumes are important now when prices have increased, when house prices were dropping volumes did not matter...

Its David Blanchflower.

Probably campaigning for zero percent interest rates forever again.

chucky

carolt wrote: »

Great article - let's see chucky et al try to claim the writer's some vested interest 'cretin' who has no idea what he's talking about. :rotfl:

As he points out,

"House prices probably have a good way to drop yet. Lots of people may tell you otherwise − estate agents, mortgage brokers and bankers − because they have something to gain. My advice is just to look at the data."

nothing like trying to make a thread personal...

looking at the data in Post 2 tells you what you don't want to see...
here it is again... please try and keep it on topic btw...

chucky wrote: »

interesting article - the journalist is using the seasonal adjusted figures...

why would the journalist compare 7 months on the Nationwide and only 4 months on the Halifax - surely he's not trying to give the impression that house prices in the past few months haven't been rising :rolleyes:

just to add balance...
here are the Nationwide since March - a 5.25% increase in house prices

Mar £150,946
Apr £151,861
May £154,016
Jun £156,442
Jul £158,871

and here are the Halifax since March - a 2.25% increase without the July numbers that are also predicting another increase

Mar £156,509
Apr £157,554
May £161,747
Jun £160,054

i'm confused why low sales volumes are important now when prices have increased, when house prices were dropping volumes did not matter...

ruggedtoast

The data hes talking about is the affordability ratios and the wider economic picture.

Personally in my area all I'm seeing are drops still. But then these properties that dont sell dont affect the mortgage approval figures.

chucky

ruggedtoast wrote: »

The data hes talking about is the affordability ratios and the wider economic picture.

Personally in my area all I'm seeing are drops still. But then these properties that dont sell dont affect the mortgage approval figures.

house price affordability is still high - some regions are very close to the average you would be surprised, not the South East or London though...
Halifax has it at 4.34, average is 4.02.
Nationwide is at 4.2, their average is 3.3

mortgage affordability is much lower than the 1990s - salary vs mortgage required

carolt

chucky wrote: »

house price affordability is still high - some regions are very close to the average you would be surprised, not the South East or London though...
Halifax has it at 4.34, average is 4.02.
Nationwide is at 4.2, their average is 3.3

mortgage affordability is much lower than the 1990s - salary vs mortgage required

What a load of cobblers.

chucky

chucky wrote: »

mortgage affordability is much lower than the 1990s - salary vs mortgage required

carolt wrote: »

What a load of cobblers.

oh dear...

1991 Average House Price = £53,635, 14% Mortgage rate - to make you look better it was a couple of % higher then too
Interest Repayment was £626 a month on 1991 average salary (however you'd like to calculate it - median, mode, mean)

2009 Average House Price = £154,066 , 4.64% Average SVR
Interest Repayment is £595.72 a month on today's average salary (however you'd like to calculate it - median, mode, mean)
http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical.htm

carolt

As if either (a) mortgage rates were at 14% for more than a couple of months!!! or (b) today's 0.5% base rate were here to stay long term!!! :rotfl:

You really are a joker, chucky.