BBC: Homes 'May rise in value in 2009'

nearlynew

Dan: wrote: »

No, we need stable prices.

Yes.

But stable at a lower level.

Dan:_4

Graham_Devon wrote: »

We need affordable prices before stability.

No good having stable prices well above the affordability line....as with that at some point, yet again, something has to give.

People can afford current prices.

Cannon_Fodder

Graham_Devon wrote: »

We are just playing artificial games with absolutely everything right now. Surely this has to stop sometime?!

The money tap will be turned off after the General Election.

Then it will be pay it back time.

Graham_Devon

Dan: wrote: »

People can afford current prices.

Not getting into this discussion on this thread.

"Some" people can afford house prices. The majority of my generation can not. Not without mummy and daddies equity.

Dan:_4

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Not getting into this discussion on this thread.

"Some" people can afford house prices.

This has always been the case

Graham_Devon

Dan: wrote: »

This has always been the case

Yes Dan, I know, but

Actually, nah, I can't be bothered going into this

It's obvious you are stating the obvious, but not willing to scratch the surface.

dgl1001

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Not getting into this discussion on this thread.

"Some" people can afford house prices. The majority of my generation can not. Not without mummy and daddies equity.

Im not sure what role the people who can't afford a house will play in sustaining house prices? It only needs "some" people who are able to purchase to increase/ sustain houseprices

chucky

"It is unlikely the price increases can be sustained for long at the very strong rate observed over the last few months," he said.

Thrugelmir wrote: »

and in the same article

they're referring to the increases over the last few months

Mar-09 +1.1%
Apr-09 -0.3%
May-09 +1.3%
Jun-09 +1.0%
Jul-09 +1.3%

those 1% plus monthly increases are not sustainable.
anything around 0% to +0.5% is more likely to be sustainable.

IveSeenTheLight

Batchy wrote: »

i dont understand why everyone is getting so excited... they are still falling by over 6% annualised.

GREAT... lets open the champagne.... :S

You choose one timeframe YoY which is widely accepted as a good comparison, but what bout other timeframes, monthly, 6 monthly, 6 years, 60 years etc would all show different results

One problem with only going with anualised guides, is that you are a year out before you see what has happened in the year before.

Now realistically, we will see some drops in the next 6 months, but likely the YoY figure will be close to 0%, so potentially, you would see the stagnation but reflect on drops in the previous months and then dismiss it as a time to buy when in reality spring will be back again with potential rises again.

It's a strategy that means you could be looking at the wrong data. (Again always concentrate on local stats)

There is a chance that we are hitting stagnation and if so, is there a point in waiting a year or two till you start to see continued YoY growth? If you do so, there could be a chance that you are then competing with many others also waiting for THE ideal time to buy.

Graham_Devon

dgl1001 wrote: »

Im not sure what role the people who can't afford a house will play in sustaining house prices? It only needs "some" people who are able to purchase to increase/ sustain houseprices

You need people to buy the starter homes in order to relieve those outgrowing the starter homes to move up.

In other words, you need a First Time Buyer continual influx.

We have not had this for the last 5 years, and it's not about to start now. If we havent had it for the last 5 years, it's not going to happen when 125% mortgages have been pulled and 75% are norm.

Like I said, you need to scracth the surface instead of stating the obvious of "some people can afford houses"....cus some people will always be able to afford houses. Some people will be able to afford whole streets.