The GDP stats were wrong...

Crash_Over

Says Indy

So everythings OK, we can all stop worrying ~ recessions as good as over. :rolleyes:

Graham_Devon

Written by somone called Hamish.

Nuff said.

purch

There is a real puzzle here. Those figures feel wrong

...thats a really persuasive argument.

The GDP figures were wrong, because they feel wrong :eek:

The Headline claims that the figures were wrong, but the article is just a load of drivel trying to back his 'hunch'

It's a shame that the once 'quality' Independant newspaper has come to printing stuff like this !!!!

mbga9pgf

Yep!unbelievable the difference between the sentiment ratings and actual metrics.

Its almost as if the B*llshit labour have fed us for the past 10 years means we are somehow optomistic every step of the way!

1984ReturnsForReal_2

but I do expect these estimates to be revised upwards as more data comes in. Why?

but I do expect these estimates to be revised downwards as more data comes in. Why?

BECAUSE NEARLY EVERY SET OF DATA THE GOVERNMENT HAS PRODUCED ON THE RECESSION OVER THE LAST 12 MONTHS HAS BEEN REVISED DOWNWARDS.

Just a hunch mind you...

Rochdale_Pioneers

I think we all agree with the premise that the GDP stats as currently stated will be proven to be wrong. By how much and possibly in which direction remains to be seen, but when McRae says his gut feel is that they're wrong, can anyone argue with him and say that they're right?

mbga9pgf

Yes. Put Quite simply. All real metrics point to falling GDP. Sentiment may point elsewhere. How does it feel to be a party voice for a party that is electorally dead for the next 20 years?

Rochdale, how you going to feel when Labour come in behind the Lib Dems at the next General Election? Even the Tories in 1997 didnt have to face that shame.

DiggerUK

A good measure of how accurate the GDP figures are is to compare them to unemployment stats.

Correlation not proving causality.... etc.etc.
But it does seem that from the 1930's to now, as unemployment goes up, GDP goes down.
But as we all know "past performance is no guide to.... etc.etc."

Or are the unemployment figures wrong?

mbga9pgf

Or are the unemployment figures wrong?

You need to make sure you are measuring like for like. For example, how was unemployment measured in the 1930s? Claimant count or guesstimate? You also need to factor in things like after 6 months, claimants drop off the far end as they lose their dole entitlement I believe (may be wrong on this though)

Important point though, its not only what you are measuring, its also how you measure it!

Rochdale_Pioneers

mbga9pgf wrote: »

Yes. Put Quite simply. All real metrics point to falling GDP. Sentiment may point elsewhere. How does it feel to be a party voice for a party that is electorally dead for the next 20 years?

Rochdale, how you going to feel when Labour come in behind the Lib Dems at the next General Election? Even the Tories in 1997 didnt have to face that shame.

And neither will we. Have you seen how the LibDems are getting on at the moment?

mbga9pgf

Yes, second I believe in the Lib dems nearly beat labour in a former Labour safe seat in Norfolk last week....