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Euro-Zone CPI Posts First Annual Fall On Record

10:00 15Jul09 EURO-ZONE JUN CPI +0.2% ON MO; -0.1% ON YR
10:00 15Jul09 EURO-ZONE JUN CPI FORECAST +0.2% ON MO; -0.1% ON YR
10:00 15Jul09 EURO-ZONE JUN CORE CPI -0.1% ON MO; +1.4% ON YR
10:00 15Jul09 EURO-ZONE JUN CPI EX-TOBACCO +0.2% ON MO; -0.3% ON YR
10:02 15Jul09 Euro-Zone CPI Posts First Annual Fall On Record



LONDON (Dow Jones)--Consumer prices in the 16 countries that use the euro fell on the year for the first time on record in June, the start of what the European Central Bank has predicted will be a short period of deflation, final data showed Wednesday.

Consumer prices rose 0.2% on the month but were 0.1% lower on the year in June, the first drop since annual records began in January 1997, the European Union's Eurostat statistics agency said. In May, consumer prices rose 0.1% on the month and were unchanged on the year.

The figures were in line with the market consensus estimate from a Dow Jones Newswires survey of economists last week. There was also no change in the annual data from preliminary figures released June 30.

The data showed that the core consumer price index - which excludes prices of energy, food and alcohol - dropped 0.1% on the month, which helped the year-on-year core inflation rate ease to 1.4% in June from 1.5% in the previous month.

The ECB has said it expects sharp swings in commodity prices last year to lead to a drop in consumer prices on an annual basis for several months before a return to positive territory by the end of the year. But it has repeatedly said that short-term movements in the inflation rate weren't relevant from a monetary policy perspective.

Economists say falling consumer prices are unlikely to herald deflation, defined as a prolonged period of declining prices. Deflation is bad for an economy because it encourages consumers to put off spending in the hope that prices will fall further.

The detail of the final June inflation figures showed the year-on-year rate was dragged down by a 18.8% fall in the price of fuels for transport and a 39.3% slump in heating oil costs. A 3.0% drop in the price of milk, cheese and eggs and a 13.4% fall in the cost of audio-visual equipment also weighed on the index.

However, inflation picked up on the month due to a 5.2% increase in the cost of fuels for transport and 2.1% rise in tobacco prices, Eurostat said.
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