House prices will stay in the doldrums for years.

ad9898_3

Not completely doom ridden, but also free from the VI spin you see in many articles served up by the press. It's particularly interesting that PWC see that there is a good chance that 2008 prices are not likely to see the light of day again until 2020. In the last crash it was a decade before we saw prices hit previous levels, with this one being worse, a little over a decade seems a reasonable assumption.

• Estate agent survey a false dawn says consultancy
• Buyers not confident enough to join market

Britain's housing market will stay in the doldrums until the middle of the next decade, and there is a 30% chance that prices will take until 2020 to return to their peak before the crash, a consultancy firm predicts.
PricewaterhouseCoopers said recent signs of a recovery in the market which had been detected by a fresh survey of estate agents were a "false dawn". John Hawksworth, the chief economist at PWC, said prices would experience a gentle decline for the next 18 months and then pick up slowly over the following years

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/jul/14/pwc-house-prices-recovery

Graham_Devon

Just heard this on the BBC who's headline is: Economy 'to dampen house prices'.

The sluggish UK economy is likely to mean that house prices will not see any "meaningful" recovery for some time, two separate surveys suggest.
There will be no "sustained" upturn until mortgages become more available, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) says.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8148528.stm

I read it saying to myself "have they nicked this stuff from some of us on MSE?!"

It sounds like one of the bears rants

worldtraveller

I'll pop in for my six monthly post on house prices which I've felt all along would fall from peak to trough by an average 30-40%, a view I have held for the past few years and continue to do so.

IMHO Estate Agents are hallucinating if they really believe that we are anywhere near the end of falls in house prices, which are still far too high.

Tens of thousands of homeowners are still losing their jobs, consumers are still up to their eyeballs in debt, banks are still tightening credit, repossessions are still soaring, more & more are getting behind on mortgage payments, wages are declining, taxes are likely to rise considerably and the economy is likely to be in the doldrums for years. That's without even taking into account the large rise in inflation and corresponding interest rate hike which is highly likely, IMHO, in the course of the next couple of years.

Hardly any reasons for any sustained move north?

Graham_Devon

And may I just say, worldtraveller was one of the first over 2 years ago predicting everything that has happened now, before even the news was picking up on things.

Worth listening to!!!

kennyboy66_2

ad9898 wrote: »

Not completely doom ridden, but also free from the VI spin you see in many articles served up by the press. It's particularly interesting that PWC see that there is a good chance that 2008 prices are not likely to see the light of day again until 2020. In the last crash it was a decade before we saw prices hit previous levels, with this one being worse, a little over a decade seems a reasonable assumption.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/jul/14/pwc-house-prices-recovery

I like that word "Doldrums".

Seems a perfectly fair view this - and far more chance of being right than either the uber bulls or uber bears.

worldtraveller

Graham_Devon wrote: »

And may I just say, worldtraveller was one of the first over 2 years ago predicting everything that has happened now, before even the news was picking up on things.

Worth listening to!!!

Thank you for that comment Graham!

Graham_Devon

worldtraveller wrote: »

Thank you for that comment Graham!

No probs. I'll delete it if you start on about pensions

worldtraveller

Graham_Devon wrote: »

No probs. I'll delete it if you start on about pensions

I kinda knew that there would be a downside! :rotfl:

StevieJ

Negative headline but the sentiment overall appears to be changing, no crash bang wallop and more use of gently also is that 2020 forecast only a 30% possibility meaning that we have a 70% possibility of returning to 2008 real prices. 'It's the way you tel em'

He added that house prices were likely to fall by a further 5-10%.

PWC said it was more likely than not that real house prices in 2015 could still be below average levels seen in 2008, after adjusting for inflation. Even in 2020, after five years of relatively strong growth, the consultancy saw a 30% chance that real house prices could be below 2008 levels.

Anyway thanks AD for the useful post.

Graham_Devon

LOL, I've thanked you for that Stevie, just for putting so much effort in

purch

I like that word "Doldrums".

Ditto

I know it's boring, but probably hanging around not doing much for a few years is the best thing for this particular market !!!