Lloyds to writeoff £13bn!

chucky

Generali wrote: »

Does anyone really believe that the day-to-day movement in the level of the FTSE100 is a predictor of how the UK's economy is likely to perform over the next few years?

i think that you may have replied to the wrong post or mis-read mine because mine was in reply to a couple of posters predicting carnage on the stock market today. they posted this yesterday and it looks nothing like carnage today - banks and miners doing especially well.

maybe the carnage will be another day.

Generali wrote: »

For a start, the vast majority of the economy isn't represented by the FTSE100 - almost half the economy is Government spending and a goodly part of the rest is 'SMEs' (Small and Medium-sized Enterprises).

why mention the FTSE 100?
my link was against the FTSE All Share, that represents nearly 99% of the UK capitilisation.

Thrugelmir

Generali wrote: »

Does anyone really believe that the day-to-day movement in the level of the FTSE100 is a predictor of how the UK's economy is likely to perform over the next few years? For a start, the vast majority of the economy isn't represented by the FTSE100 - almost half the economy is Government spending and a goodly part of the rest is 'SMEs' (Small and Medium-sized Enterprises).

Can I add that the majority of the top companies income is derived from abroad. So is more reflective of the global economy not the UK's.

The banking sector has far less impact on the indices than it did in 2007.

We have lost Abbey, B&B, NR, B&B, A&L and HBOS.

The market capitalisations of HSBC, Barclays, Lloyds and RBS are a fraction of what they were.

The oil price has more of an impact on the market , ie BP and Shell , on a daily basis. Than a piece of banking news that professional investors in banks would be factoring in, in deciding whether Lloyds is a good long term buy.

Generali

chucky wrote: »

i think that you may have replied to the wrong post or mis-read mine because mine was in reply to a couple of posters predicting carnage on the stock market today. they posted this yesterday and it looks nothing like carnage today - banks and miners doing especially well.

maybe the carnage will be another day.

I was making a point, not really replying to you old chap.

chucky wrote: »

why mention the FTSE 100?
my link was against the FTSE All Share, that represents nearly 99% of the UK capitilisation.

I didn't click the link so I didn't se which index you linked to. My mistake.


Even the FTSE All Share Index represents a very small proportion of the total value of UK assets (e.g. land, property, debt, savings, patents, copyright, trademarks etc). Do you think that the day-to-day movement in the FTSE All Share Index is a good predictor of the future level of UK GDP? I don't FWIW.

chucky

Generali wrote: »

Even the FTSE All Share Index represents a very small proportion of the total value of UK assets (e.g. land, property, debt, savings, patents, copyright, trademarks etc). Do you think that the day-to-day movement in the FTSE All Share Index is a good predictor of the future level of UK GDP? I don't FWIW.

FTSE day-to-day movements don't tell you anything.

the FTSE All Share is an indicator of the capitalisation of nearly all the UK capitalisation - it's much better than comparing it to the DAX 100 as an indicator for the UK for example.

the FTSE cannot be the sole indicator of economic climate of the UK due to the everything you say above but it is an indicator nevertheless.

FoxtonsRIP

chucky wrote: »

FTSE day-to-day movements don't tell you anything.

Why in heaven's name did you post this then?

chucky wrote: »

FTSE is up today

chucky

FoxtonsRIP wrote: »

Why in heaven's name did you post this then?

because it had been posted that it would be 'carnage' today.

i'm sure that should have been clear for EVEN for you to understand...
it's quite simple really, apologies in advance if you don't understand.

julieq

Joeskeppi wrote: »

I agree with you 100%, out of interest, do you have any idea/guesses as to why people do this?

I think there are a few reasons. One is that people like the idea of an apocalypse, that's why apocalpytic ideas are always so popular. It's really not just the world economy, it's things like Y2k, mad cow disease, asteroid strikes, swine flu, a mega tsumani, yellowstone park exploding, nuclear terrorism, and so on. There are loads of other examples. The ideas horrify and fascinate. Popular writers and TV programme makers know this and they feed the hunger directly.

The idea of any sort of terminal "meltdown" is compelling, and it attracts disciples before it happens, the disciples are told in the lead in they're overdoing it, so when things move in the direction they're prophesying you get a switch where the doommongers appear to be being borne out by events. This feeds a sense of infallibility, so eventually only information supporting the model gets processed, anything else is ignored or shouted down because it cannot possibly be true. Or as in the case of the swine flu thread the absence of really bad news is dismissed as being part of a conspiracy to hide the truth.

You can see that process happening quite clearly here (in general) and in respect of the Lloyds news specifically. Even when you point out what ACTUALLY happened, you are accused of living in a fantasy world. It's quite funny really.

Graham_Devon

julieq wrote: »

I think there are a few reasons. One is that people like the idea of an apocalypse, that's why apocalpytic ideas are always so popular. It's really not just the world economy, it's things like Y2k, mad cow disease, asteroid strikes, swine flu, a mega tsumani, yellowstone park exploding, nuclear terrorism, and so on. There are loads of other examples. The ideas horrify and fascinate. Popular writers and TV programme makers know this and they feed the hunger directly.

The idea of any sort of terminal "meltdown" is compelling, and it attracts disciples before it happens, the disciples are told in the lead in they're overdoing it, so when things move in the direction they're prophesying you get a switch where the doommongers appear to be being borne out by events. This feeds a sense of infallibility, so eventually only information supporting the model gets processed, anything else is ignored or shouted down because it cannot possibly be true. Or as in the case of the swine flu thread the absence of really bad news is dismissed as being part of a conspiracy to hide the truth.

You can see that process happening quite clearly here (in general) and in respect of the Lloyds news specifically. Even when you point out what ACTUALLY happened, you are accused of living in a fantasy world. It's quite funny really.

Well I hope you are going to stop claming your not an optimist now