UK Poised To Exit Recession Before Euro Zone

inspector_monkfish

11:57 01Jul09 EURONOMICS: UK Poised To Exit Recession Before Euro Zone

LONDON--The U.K. appears poised to pull out of recession ahead of the 16-country euro zone, where a protracted manufacturing slump and rising jobless rolls drag on recovery, according to data released Wednesday.

The purchasing managers' index for the U.K. manufacturing sector rose to 47.0 in June from 45.4 in May, Markit Economics and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply reported Wednesday.

The move lifted the indicator to a 13-month high and closer to the 50-point level that would indicate that business activity has ceased contracting. Readings above 50 indicate economic expansion.

"Add in the likelihood of increases in both the construction and service sector PMIs on Thursday and Friday and it looks as though we could see positive GDP [gross domestic product] in the third quarter of this year," said James Knightley, U.K. economist at ING.

Some economists remained cautious, pointing to an economy emerging from its sharpest decline in more than 50 years in the first quarter, a lingering credit crunch, rising unemployment and a depressed housing market.

In the euro zone, the manufacturing PMI showed recovery proceeding at a slower pace, rising to a revised reading of 42.6 in June from 40.7 in May and still far away from passing the 50-point threshold.

"Pressures to cut employment also clearly remain intense across the region, as firms struggle in the face of falling demand," said Chris Williamson, the chief economist at Markit.

Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, said last month the ECB doesn't expect the euro zone to return to growth until the middle of 2010.

There were also marked differences in the pace of recovery in the region's largest economies, with Germany and Italy still suffering sharp downturns in manufacturing, while France inched closer to stabilization.

Data released Wednesday by Germany's statistics office also showed retail sales in Europe's biggest economy edged up for the third consecutive month in May, but only very slightly, with rising unemployment dampening the scope for further improvements. Retail sales rose a real 0.4% on the month in May, but were still down 2.9% from a year ago.

German retail industry group HDE said Wednesday it was cutting its forecast for nominal retail sales this year to a 2% drop from previous prediction of flat or 1% decline.

Weak demand in Germany's big machinery sector also suggests more dreary months ahead. Orders for German machinery and plant-equipment fell 47% in the three-month period through May from the same period a year ago, the sector's industry lobby, known by its German acronym VDMA, said Wednesday.

VDMA said the data indicates that total output in the important,
export-driving industrial sector will be 20% lower in 2009 than last year.

Rochdale_Pioneers

More proof that
- Britain is uniquely placed to do worse than everyone
- Its only the UK suffering and its all Brown's fault
- There are no green shoots because everything Brown's done has been rubbish

etc etc if you live in Brown-frother land.

purch

Calm down, Roch.

Take a 'chill pill' :cool:

I think it's pretty clear that unless they take some drastic and unpalatable measures, EuroLand will be in a mess economically for far longer than they (as a whole) need to be.

inspector_monkfish

purch wrote: »

Calm down, Roch.

Take a 'chill pill' :cool:

I think it's pretty clear that unless they take some drastic and unpalatable measures, EuroLand will be in a mess economically for far longer than they (as a whole) need to be.

we can all see that, but how comes all those in charge have their heads in the sand???


...there may be trouble ahead......:eek:

halight

Im glad that we are not in euro land.

If The countrys that are in the euro take longer to come out. How will this effect us? We export quite a bit to them if thay stay in reseshion longer than us thay will be buying less from us. Will that make our recoverey slower?

Rochdale_Pioneers

purch wrote: »

Calm down, Roch.

Take a 'chill pill' :cool:

I am entirely calm - lambasting lying idiots is not a stressful activity! :T

I have posed the question several times to the frothers and not had an intelligent answer - if the recession in the UK is down to Brown's actions, what explains identical recessions across Europe and the rest of the world, especially in countries like Germany who have done the exact opposite of what Brown allegedly did wrong?

slipthru

Rochdale_Pioneers wrote: »

I am entirely calm - lambasting lying idiots is not a stressful activity! :T

I have posed the question several times to the frothers and not had an intelligent answer - if the recession in the UK is down to Brown's actions, what explains identical recessions across Europe and the rest of the world, especially in countries like Germany who have done the exact opposite of what Brown allegedly did wrong?

But who else would you blame if not brown?

chucky

Rochdale_Pioneers wrote: »

I am entirely calm - lambasting lying idiots is not a stressful activity! :T

I have posed the question several times to the frothers and not had an intelligent answer - if the recession in the UK is down to [STRIKE]Brown's[/STRIKE] the govt's actions, what explains identical recessions across Europe and the rest of the world, especially in countries like Germany who have done the exact opposite of what [STRIKE]Brown[/STRIKE] the Govt allegedly did wrong?

you should re-write that and take out Brown.
it would be an even better point

StevieJ

slipthru wrote: »

But who else would you blame if not brown?

I will open with Greenspan

System

StevieJ wrote: »

I will open with Greenspan

I'll go with the Romans!