What shape will this recession be in the end?

sabretoothtigger

What shape will this recovery be?:think:

Not to be taken too seriously, not a public poll. V shape recovery would be like a tennis ball hitting the ground hard and bouncing back just as quickly and so on.
Soros thinks an inverted √ http://www.reuters.com/article/wtUSInvestingNews/idUSTRE53537D20090406

V-Shaped Recessions:dance:

V-shaped recessions are recessions that begin with a steep fall but then quickly find a bottom, turn back around and move immediately higher. A V-shaped recession is a best-case scenario.

The recession of 1990 to 1991 and the recession of 2001---both of which only lasted eight months---are considered to be V-shaped recessions.

U-Shaped Recessions_pale_

U-shaped recessions are recessions that begin with a slightly slower decline but then remain at the bottom for an extended period of time before turning around and moving higher again.

The recession from 1971 through 1978---when both unemployment and inflation were high for years---is considered a U-shaped recession.

W-Shaped Recessions:huh:

W-shaped recessions are recessions that begin like V-shaped recessions but then end up turning back down again after showing false signs of recovery. W-shaped recessions are also called "double-dip recessions" because the economy drops twice before a full recovery is achieved.

A W-shaped recession is painful because many investors who jump back into the markets after they believe the economy has found a bottom end up getting burned twice---once on the way down and then once again after the false recovery.

The recession of 1980 that double dipped in 1981 and 1982 is a great example of a W-shaped recession.

L-Shaped Recessions:doh:

L-shaped recessions are recessions that fall quickly and fail to recover. An L-shaped recession is a worst-case scenario because they offer no hope of recovery.

The Japanese recession that began in the early 1990s is considered an L-shaped recession.

http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewarticle/articleid/3236440



http://www.wordspy.com/words/X-shapedrecovery.asp

treliac

My bet goes on a U if it can be managed properly. The longer this govt meddles, though, the more it looks like becoming an 'L'.

Was the 90's a 'V'? I remember the effects lingering on until around 1996, in respect of house prices anyway.

But what do I know. Over to someone with some theory to back their ideas.

1984ReturnsForReal_2

Darlings napkin sketch!

ad9898_3

I have voted L shaped, my reason is not so much that I'm a doom monger, it's that fact that after the extensive reading I have done over the last five years about energy depletion and the rise of the Chinese and Indian economies, we simply do not have the required energy resources to live the decade of 1997-2007 again at this time.

Make no mistake, the reason for the exponential growth of the world's economies over the last 60 years is down to cheap and easy oil extraction, we are now nearing the end game of this particular era, easy oil has gone, what we have left is much more difficult and expensive to extract, adjustments in our way of life will have to be made, there is no other option at this particular point in time.

abaxas

How about a 'that prostitute from total recall' shaped recession?

WV

mbga9pgf

W with not much of a bounce back after the second dip. We need to get used to the reality of paying for stuff instead of putting it on the never-never.

Graham_Devon

W. We have done too much meddling and now have no cards left to play.

So when we can no longer artificially keep things on life support, it will fall again. Gordon and Co. are just hoping life support with bodge it until after the election.

halight

L Shape for me,

I think that we will bump along the bottem for a few years before anything gets any better.

treliac

Graham_Devon wrote: »

W. We have done too much meddling and now have no cards left to play.

So when we can no longer artificially keep things on life support, it will fall again. Gordon and Co. are just hoping life support with bodge it until after the election.

But it hasn't really recovered.

Gordy's just there with his back against the tide, desperately trying to hold it back long enough, in the vain hope he might get elected before he gets drowned in the overwhelming swell.

Andrew64

Has anyone considered a W followed by an L? This recession isn't like any others so anything could happen.

chucky

A W-shaped with the second part not as deep followed by a short/medium L.