Uk 1q gdp drop largest quarterly decline since 1958

kennyboy66_2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Second quarter data is not going to match first quarter or be worse.

Which means it will be the end of the recession, as one quarter of "less negative" growth means recession ended.

So if we get negative growth of -2.1% in quarter 2, the recession is officially over.

That in itself with pave the way for endless green shoots reports.

You have got this hopelessly wrong.

Graham_Devon

kennyboy66 wrote: »

You have got this hopelessly wrong.

Why? Tell me.

kennyboy66_2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Why? Tell me.

Because if the economy contracts in Q2 we are still in recession, it is nothing to do with having to beat Q1's record.

kennyboy66_2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Why? Tell me.

If it helps this is what the recession might look like, using a starting point of 1000 'GDP units'



Start ing GDP 1000

Q3 2008 995 -0.50%
Q4 2008 976 -1.90%
Q1 2009 953 -2.40%
Q2 2009 945 -0.80%
Q3 2009 937 -0.80%

It would only be in Q4 2009 if GDP units were 937 or above that we could say that we were officially out of recession, even though the pace of decline is not as steep in Q2 & Q3 2009 as it was in the previous quarters.

Hope this helps.

Graham_Devon

kennyboy66 wrote: »

Because if the economy contracts in Q2 we are still in recession, it is nothing to do with having to beat Q1's record.

Funny you should say that when it was only you telling me just a month ago:

kennyboy66 wrote: »

You only need 1 quarter of growth for the recession to officially end.

So if I have it "hopelessly wrong" it was because I was taking my advice from yourself

I'm wrong here, I'm wrong the other way round, though seems your right either way!

inspector_monkfish

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Funny you should say that when it was only you telling me just a month ago:



So if I have it "hopelessly wrong" it was because I was taking my advice from yourself

:eek::eek::eek: STALKER ALERT !!! :eek::eek::eek:

System

Oh dear Graham.

-2.4% in one month, does not mean -2.3% the next is growth. It's a slowing of the contraction.

Recession ends when we post 0% or greater.

purch

Which means, recession ended. Even if we get negative growth of -2.3%

Since when has negative growth equalled positive growth ?

michaels

inspector_monkfish wrote: »

09:30 30Jun09 UK 1Q GDP REVISED TO -2.4% QQ; LAST ESTIMATE -1.9% QQ
09:30 30Jun09 UK 1Q GDP REVISED TO -4.9% YY; LAST ESTIMATE -4.1% YY
09:30 30Jun09 UK 1Q GDP FORECAST AT -2.2% QQ; -4.4% YY
09:30 30Jun09 UK 1Q GDP DROP LARGEST QUARTERLY DECLINE SINCE 1958
09:30 30Jun09 UK RECESSION NOW SHOWN STARTING IN 2Q 2008


(story to follow)

Assume 95% employment going in to the recession. A 5% drop in output and assume no change in productivity suggests that 5% of those employed will no longer be needed = a 4.75% increase in the number unemployed.

In reality productivity gains are likely to make this figure even larger.

Plus just because we are down 4.9% so far doesn't mean that's it.

Degenerate

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I'm wrong here, I'm wrong the other way round, though seems your right either way!

You're very confused. One quarter of growth will end the recession. One quarter of less severe contraction will not.