most mainstream forcasters failed to see the crash

thriftybabe

geoffky wrote: »

most mainstream forecasters failed to see the crash .so why should we take any of their ramblings as gospel.. its just like the ones on here who were saying there will not be a house price crash two months before the market went tumbling and are now saying we are near bottom..........i f they could not get such a thing right that many on here and over at hpc.co.uk got spot on what does it say about the drivel that are coming out with now..

I can only say thank goodness we listened to MSE. There are plenty of guys on here who have got it right. I read the news and then check what is getting said over here as I believe more what is on here than anywhere else!

michaels

It is theoretically impossible for the majority to predict correctly when a bubble will collapse as if you know a collapse is going to happen you will sell first and if everyone tried to sell just before they knew the crash was coming then the crash would happen sooner...the crash comes when the balance of opinion turns negative and then self-perpetuates via a feedback loop.

Some will call it right, others will sell too early and miss some of the upside, others too late and ride the downslope. Calling it right is almost certain to be luck, for it it were skill then others could replicate the call and thus the buble would have defalted sooner as described.

StevieJ

Graham_Devon wrote: »

That was a select few, NOT the whole of HPC as a collective.

On a collective scale, they were out, as they all have different opinions, like we do on here. So "HPC" in itself, could never be right as a whole.

I meant the main people on the site not the 'also rans' HPC was set up in 2003 as far I am aware and presumably were predicting that house prices were going to crash well before that. Well if I had bought a house in 2003 I would be 20% in the money after the recent drops, how can they have been proved correct (based on Nationwide calculator for the UK)

Graham_Devon

StevieJ wrote: »

I meant the main people on the site not the 'also rans' HPC was set up in 2003 as far I am aware and presumably were predicting that house prices were going to crash well before that. Well if I had bought a house in 2003 I

I take it you had no idea what you were rambling on about either so simply gave up mid sentence!? Good call

StevieJ

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I take it you had no idea what you were ramblin

Actually I didn't expect you to understand it

macaque_2

geoffky wrote: »

most mainstream forecasters failed to see the crash .so why should we take any of their ramblings as gospel.. its just like the ones on here who were saying there will not be a house price crash two months before the market went tumbling and are now saying we are near bottom..........i f they could not get such a thing right that many on here and over at hpc.co.uk got spot on what does it say about the drivel that are coming out with now..

Dogs bark before earthquakes. Macaques (the smartest of all the primate species) however predict market crashes with witty and accurate internet posts. I along with a few of the smarter humans predicted the unfolding events several years ago.

Graham_Devon

StevieJ wrote: »

Actually I didn't expect you to understand it

You appear to be confused between the starting of the webiste and the actual crash.

I could start a website about how we will all be using electric cars.

Doesnt mean I'm under the illusion were all driving around in electric cars right now.

Stevie, you are getting more desperado by the day, so of course I can't understand it, as I doubt you can understand what you are trying to spin either!

vivatifosi

I'm surprised that nobody has mentioned VI before now. I remember sitting in the boardroom of an investment bank prior to the crash and discussing this. But what would it have said to the market if the people at any bank were that open? I'm talking here about crashes in the broader sense rather than the HPC component, though VI could be involved there too.

I'd be interested to hear from the likes of Gen who worked in the markets at the time, my sense is that the workers in the city were sensing market changes early on, but they weren't necessarily being reported. Or perhaps the magnitude of the impending downturn was not appreciated.

StevieJ

Graham_Devon wrote: »

You appear to be confused between the starting of the webiste and the actual crash.

I could start a website about how we will all be using electric cars.

Doesnt mean I'm under the illusion were all driving around in electric cars right now.

Stevie, you are getting more desperado by the day, so of course I can't understand it, as I doubt you can understand what you are trying to spin either!

I really do wonder about goes on between those ears of yours

tomterm8

michaels wrote: »

It is theoretically impossible for the majority to predict correctly when a bubble will collapse as if you know a collapse is going to happen you will sell first and if everyone tried to sell just before they knew the crash was coming then the crash would happen sooner...the crash comes when the balance of opinion turns negative and then self-perpetuates via a feedback loop.

Some will call it right, others will sell too early and miss some of the upside, others too late and ride the downslope. Calling it right is almost certain to be luck, for it it were skill then others could replicate the call and thus the buble would have defalted sooner as described.

I think a lot of people thought there was a bubble... certainly, I thought that in 2003 and it was pretty obvious by 2005... but, timing the market as you describe it is virtually impossible. Especially the housing market.