House prices bottomed ?

Thrugelmir

StevieJ wrote: »

Then again we are not making a successful living from it like they are, BTW I think the credit shortage has been around for a while.

What credit shortage? If you can afford a mortage and meet the criteria. The money is still easily available to borrow.

I am refering to a contraction in available funds at competitive rates.

inspector_monkfish

don't know if you heard - but apparantly michael jackson is dead:eek:

prowla

House prices decline again in May, according to the BBC.

StevieJ

Thrugelmir wrote: »

What credit shortage? If you can afford a mortage and meet the criteria. The money is still easily available to borrow.

I am refering to a contraction in available funds at competitive rates.

What with a 25% deposit ?

Bluebirdnick

This is simplistic, but as a residential property developer, don't they buy land and sell houses?

Call me a cynic, but I hardly find it surprising that a company that would benefit from lower land prices and higher house prices is suggesting that land prices may fall, whilst house prices will not.

StevieJ

Bluebirdnick wrote: »

This is simplistic, but as a residential property developer, don't they buy land and sell houses?

Call me a cynic, but I hardly find it surprising that a company that would benefit from lower land prices and higher house prices is suggesting that land prices may fall, whilst house prices will not.

Fair point
Then again here we have 35 presumably independent analysts who see house price falling only 4% more than Berkeley


Average house prices are seen falling 8 percent this year, after already sinking 16 percent in 2008, but are likely to remain flat in 2010, the poll of 35 analysts at banks, investment firms and consultancies found.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKLNE55O02U20090625

FoxtonsRIP

It's totally pointless quoting House Builders' views on the housing market. Firstly they have a strong vested interest in talking the market up. Secondly they were utterly clueless in seeing the slump coming in the first place so how can anyone give their views any credibility.

MrDT

Bluebirdnick wrote: »

This is simplistic, but as a residential property developer, don't they buy land and sell houses?

Call me a cynic, but I hardly find it surprising that a company that would benefit from lower land prices and higher house prices is suggesting that land prices may fall, whilst house prices will not.

I like your no-nonsense posting style. You'd think this would be absolutely bleedin obvious to all wouldn't you?

Thrugelmir

StevieJ wrote: »

What with a 25% deposit ?

Before wholesale funding and the demutilisation of the building societies into banks. A 25% was much the norm.

As building societies relied on depositors for funds. They have limited capacity to lend. Also they wanted people to save with them for a period ( minimum as low as a year) before advancing a mortgage. The people saving, helping someone else on to the ladder. It takes around a 100 depositors to fund one mortgage.

By saving regularly it demonstrated financial discpline. Switching from saving to paying a mortgage is then an easy transition.

This is where the affordability multiples are misleading. As its the finite amount of money to be lent that determines lending multiple not the ability to repay.

I realise that this may seem alien to you. As the past 15 years have seen a transformation of the UK mortgage market. All the demutalised building socities, with the exception of NR, have disappeared.

Yet we are returning back to the way things where. In a sense normal market conditions.

My personal views on the property market are not determined by self interest, yield etc. But core fundamentals such as money supply, interest rates, debt levels and the wider economy.

Bluebirdnick

StevieJ wrote: »

Fair point
Then again here we have 35 presumably independent analysts who see house price falling only 4% more than Berkeley


Average house prices are seen falling 8 percent this year, after already sinking 16 percent in 2008, but are likely to remain flat in 2010, the poll of 35 analysts at banks, investment firms and consultancies found.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKLNE55O02U20090625

I'm not going to be buying one until there is a serious reduction in house prices. And I'm a would-be FTB. I don't speak for all FTBs, but my friends are the same as me - we are going to wait until the market gets itself back to an affordable level. There has been a massive shift in the last year - we're just not going to rush to get involved, whereas we were trying to in 2007 as we were afraid that if we didn't get in young, we would never be able to afford a house.

And that's the issue. Without new people entering the market, prices have to come down as demand will drop. Quite a few of us will lose our jobs in the coming months too, further reducing the likelihood that this wave of potential FTBs will be darkening the doorstep of an estate agent any time soon.