The Great 2003-2005 Crash in Britain’s Housing Market

Masomnia

He was wrong...

Lots of people predicted a fall, it was going to happen sooner or later. Markets move in cycles like that. Boom follows bust follows boom, despite what Gordon would have us believe.

I predict house prices will rise in 2010. If it happens two years later will you all say 'Yeah fair enough, maybe that Masomnia bloke is more clever than we gave him credit for'? No. And nor should you.

GDB2222

PasturesNew wrote: »

He hadn't factored in liar loans, BTL frenzy, property investment seminars and their "15% deposit paid" deals on off plan property.

But he was right without those.

Neither did I, which is why I was constantly surprised that prices continued to rise beyond then. In the end, when the crash actually occurred, it came as a bit of a surprise also.

StevieJ

tommy75 wrote: »

Simply because of a spend spend Labour government destined to ruin the UK economy. Remember what happened in 2007? He made a good call and maybe if the bubble burst at the end of 2003 after the ridiculous house price rises of that year and the previous, we wouldn't be bailing out every tom !!!!!! and harry with even higher taxes to come. The pain has not even begun yet..

When house prices don't fall another 50% are you all going to be saying 'we didn't expect this' and 'didn't expect that'

michaels

Property actually started to level off midway through 2004. Labour panicked for the election due in Spring 2005 or 6 and came up with a cunning wheeze - let btl and other investors hold residential property as a pension asset. House prices duly took off again, the election was held spring 2005 and then the govt changed its mind again and decided the property market didn't need even more support and pulled the idea before its planned implementation in April 2006. Not bad, moving the markets without actually costing a bean in reduced taxation,. Obviously those who had reorganised their business affairs to take advantage of the tax change announcement were pretty p~~d off but with this govt it is not about policy that makes sense but what plays well with the focus groups.

1echidna

michaels wrote: »

Property actually started to level off midway through 2004. Labour panicked for the election due in Spring 2005 or 6 and came up with a cunning wheeze - let btl and other investors hold residential property as a pension asset. House prices duly took off again, the election was held sprign 2005 and then the govt changed it smind again and decided the property market didn't need even more support and pulled the idea before its planned implementation in April 2006. Not bad, moving th emarkets without actually costing a bean in reduced taxation,. Obviously those who had reorganised theri business afairs to take advantage of the tax change annoiuncement were pretty p~~d off but with this govt it is not about policy that makes sense but what plays well with the focus groups.

I think there is still some underestimation of the gov't and other vested interests power to pull levers to keep the housing market from deflating further. It will be very interesting to see what wheazes they come up with in the next year or so.

tommy75

michaels wrote: »

Property actually started to level off midway through 2004. Labour panicked for the election due in Spring 2005 or 6 and came up with a cunning wheeze - let btl and other investors hold residential property as a pension asset. House prices duly took off again, the election was held spring 2005 and then the govt changed its mind again and decided the property market didn't need even more support and pulled the idea before its planned implementation in April 2006. Not bad, moving the markets without actually costing a bean in reduced taxation,. Obviously those who had reorganised their business affairs to take advantage of the tax change announcement were pretty p~~d off but with this govt it is not about policy that makes sense but what plays well with the focus groups.

They also dropped the BOE base rate by 0.5 didn't they?

openside

sell up and rent is still good advice IMHO

the bottom of this recession/depression is still a long way off 5 million unemployed and 15 years till house prices start to rise again I reckon

have a look at japanese property prices since 1990

StevieJ

openside wrote: »

sell up and rent is still good advice IMHO

the bottom of this recession/depression is still a long way off 5 million unemployed and 15 years till house prices start to rise again I reckon

have a look at japanese property prices since 1990

Much discussed, the situations are totally different.

openside

The japanese have a much more robust balanced economy than we do in many ways, didnt help them though

The idea that UK PLC 'has' to rebound isnt a law set in stone

Our fundamentals are pretty dire

Now we could of course slash 1 million public sector jobs (without too much upheavel it has to be said apart from the fact the poor !!!!!!s would have lost their livelyhoods) cease to pay index linked pensions to the ones left, halt immigration privatise the health service/post office etc and start to play a role in world affairs that our position (a small mid ranking northern atlantic nation) merits, with the attendent savings that would entail


But it aint going to happen

StevieJ

openside wrote: »

The japanese have a much more robust balanced economy than we do in many ways, didnt help them though

The idea that UK PLC 'has' to rebound isnt a law set in stone

From what I remember from the debate the Jap house prices were that extreme that they required cross generational mortgages to support them something like 50 years or more.