Autumn will be the time when price will fall long way

Dan:_4

lostinrates wrote: »

opinions aren't necesairly nonsense, where as stats nd facts can appear to be. We're adiscussion board not the IMF

we complain that its insular and argumentative then we slate people for daring to submit opinions. Frankly, even with ''facts'' I accept that its hard to take without reservation, opinion from board members as ''truth'' because who the hell knows who the person is its discussion, not policy creation. Therefore while factual discussion is of course very differnt to opinion discussion, surely there is a place for both?

The problem is, and what I find very irritating, is when people pass on personal opinion as FACT.

mitchaa

Yoshua wrote: »

Wait until its cold and grey and wet AND interest rates are shooting up and people cant pay their mortgages.

Is this all you bears have left, this very very weak assumption? Just who will not be able to pay their mortgage? Give me a couple of scenarios;)

Couple come off a fixed rate of 6% and straight onto SVR at 3%, they now have an extra £500pm to hammer away at their mortgage. 6 months later BOE BR's shoot up say 3% over night, their SVR is now at say 5.5%, so they are still up £100pm or so.

Just who is going to take a hammering away from their norm? I pay £1200pm fixed at the moment, i budget for that every month without fail. If i were to revert to a SVR and find myself having to only pay £500pm, i'd still have that £700pm buffer back to the norm so interest rate rises would only effect me if it were to go back above £1200pm. I would never re structure my finances around the new £500pm figure, i dont think anyone with half a GCSE would, so why do you and a lot of other bears on here think this way?

Like i said if that is the only hope you guys have left.....Well....Have you heard the 1 about the boat;)

inspector_monkfish

Dan: wrote: »

The problem is, and what I find very irritating, is when people pass on personal opinion as FACT.

was that a FACT ?
or just your opinion
i'm so confused

inspector_monkfish

mitchaa wrote: »

Just who will not be able to pay their mortgage? Give me a couple of scenarios;)

how about someone who has just been made redundant
could be quite a few of them still over the coming months

Dan:_4

inspector_monkfish wrote: »

how about someone who has just been made redundant
could be quite a few of them still over the coming months

To be fair, this is a risk that can happen any time over the duration of a mortgage.

You could always take out a mortgage protection policy for piece of mind.

inspector_monkfish

Dan: wrote: »

To be fair, this is a risk that can happen any time over the duration of a mortgage.

You could always take out a mortgage protection policy for piece of mind.

to be fair, in the current economic climate, there is a much greater chance of redundancy

izzybusy23

inspector_monkfish wrote: »

does the OP need any facts ?

Yeah its funny how Dan always asks people for the FACTS but when he is challenged to provide the FACTS he never does...

izzybusy23

Dan: wrote: »

The problem is, and what I find very irritating, is when people pass on personal opinion as FACT.

Erm thats funny Dan, in no part of the OP's discussion did I hear the word FACT mentioned... you speculating again?

Cannon_Fodder

mitchaa wrote: »

Is this all you bears have left, this very very weak assumption? Just who will not be able to pay their mortgage? Give me a couple of scenarios;)

Couple come off a fixed rate of 6% and straight onto SVR at 3%, they now have an extra £500pm to hammer away at their mortgage. 6 months later BOE BR's shoot up say 3% over night, their SVR is now at say 5.5%, so they are still up £100pm or so.

Just who is going to take a hammering away from their norm? I pay £1200pm fixed at the moment, i budget for that every month without fail. If i were to revert to a SVR and find myself having to only pay £500pm, i'd still have that £700pm buffer back to the norm so interest rate rises would only effect me if it were to go back above £1200pm. I would never re structure my finances around the new £500pm figure, i dont think anyone with half a GCSE would, so why do you and a lot of other bears on here think this way?

Like i said if that is the only hope you guys have left.....Well....Have you heard the 1 about the boat;)

A couple of scenarios...

What about those scraping by on 4%, drop to SVR 2%, overpaying barely dents the NE since the crash,...rates go up to 5%, NE prevents then re-mortgaging away from SVR, they're b_ggered.

What about those splitting up - several threads on the Mortgages board if you want to get the sad details - crash puts them in NE, borderline mortgage affordability, drop to SVR, survive but want to get on with their lives, but cannot re-mortgage on their individual salaries, then rates go up, and being in NE, they cannot re-mortgage away from the SVR either, meanwhile they want to get on with their lives with new partners, they rent it out but it doesn't cover the mortgage...so are paying for the losses...how long can they afford to do that...? B_ggered.


Just as Bulls like to deflect debates by saying house prices nationally are less important than the detail of the locality, street, house etc...so the mortgage affordability, salary, job security, relationship situation, etc etc within EACH individual house is what makes EACH individual house a potential future entrant to the house market.

Your, or my, situation is just that. Yours and mine. Others are suffering, or not suffering at all, to differing degrees. Just because you do not know anyone, or choose not to notice them, in these situations, does not make their absence true nationwide, or even just around the corner.

mitchaa

inspector_monkfish wrote: »

how about someone who has just been made redundant
could be quite a few of them still over the coming months

1) Redundancy pay
2) Partner still employed with income sufficient enough
3) Benefit system (ISMI pays your mortgage interest after 3months JSA)

We have 2.2m people unemployed at the moment so an increase of 700k or so from the norm with an expected 800k or so more to see their P45's in the future.

Not all the 1.5m will be housing market linked, some will live in social housing, some will be older and already have bought their houses outright and some will be protected by the 3 measures i highlight above.

Not as clear as ....Job loss > Interest rate rise > House reposession > Housing market plummets.

Sure some will follow that path upto house reposession but i doubt the numbers will have any significance to housing market data. (1.5m increase in unemployment out of a work force of 30m = 5%, those that will fall into 1/2/3 above will in my opinion equate to the majority and perhaps leaving leaving 1-2% of the market that genuinely will lose their homes)

Only my opinion of course.