US government securities worth US 134.5 billion seized from Japanese nationals

chewmylegoff

simplest and most likely explanation to me is that they are just fakes.

don't see how the second scenario that this is some kind of covert dumping of $ debt by china is particularly likely - what would china gain from it. they might as well just throw the bonds in the bin, they'd make as much money.

Generali

chewmylegoff wrote: »

simplest and most likely explanation to me is that they are just fakes.

don't see how the second scenario that this is some kind of covert dumping of $ debt by china is particularly likely - what would china gain from it. they might as well just throw the bonds in the bin, they'd make as much money.

I wonder a little about the idea that the (possible) fakes are hard to tell from originals. How would some Italian flat-foot know the difference? I wouldn't and in theory I'd have a much better idea.

The fact is that if someone comes to you with millions of dollars worth of bonds and wants to exchange them for cash (let alone billions) then you're going to do a fair amount of due dilligence, even if they are bearer bonds.

mbga9pgf

Generali wrote: »

I wonder a little about the idea that the (possible) fakes are hard to tell from originals. How would some Italian flat-foot know the difference? I wouldn't and in theory I'd have a much better idea.

The fact is that if someone comes to you with millions of dollars worth of bonds and wants to exchange them for cash (let alone billions) then you're going to do a fair amount of due dilligence, even if they are bearer bonds.

The fact that they were caught kinda suggests to me they may be real; unless they were actually trying to cash them in in which case they could well be fake.

Interesting they were caught with them in transit though, outside a neutral country...

As someone else has suggested, the only people holding these are states, which kinda leads me down the path that if they are real, one very big nation is secretly dumping its reserves of cash for something else... perhaps raw materials?

Generali

mbga9pgf wrote: »

The fact that they were caught kinda suggests to me they may be real; unless they were actually trying to cash them in in which case they could well be fake.

Interesting they were caught with them in transit though, outside a neutral country...

As someone else has suggested, the only people holding these are states, which kinda leads me down the path that if they are real, one very big nation is secretly dumping its reserves of cash for something else... perhaps raw materials?

Anything is possible. Fewer things are likely.

The thing that nags at me is that these people were caught. I reckon I could smuggle a few pieces of paper across a boarder that were worth billions in an incredibly cost effective and secure way.

Is this a random check? It seems unlikely to me although clearly possible.

Either they were dobbed in or someone is trying to make a point????????

chewmylegoff

Generali wrote: »

Anything is possible. Fewer things are likely.

The thing that nags at me is that these people were caught. I reckon I could smuggle a few pieces of paper across a boarder that were worth billions in an incredibly cost effective and secure way.

Is this a random check? It seems unlikely to me although clearly possible.

Either they were dobbed in or someone is trying to make a point????????

dunno, the dodgy people on "nothing to declare" and "UK border force" always seem to be pretty easy to spot.

chewmylegoff

mbga9pgf wrote: »

one very big nation is secretly dumping its reserves of cash for something else... perhaps raw materials?

china buying the rights to pokemon?

Mr_Mumble

bubblesmoney wrote: »

US government securities seized from Japanese nationals

why the f*ck doesnt such stuff ever come to view first in the FT, bloomberg, bbc etc when it is of such a massive scale and in hundreds of billions of dollars worth.

Because serious news organisations know unregistered/bearer bonds are little more than a lazy hollywood plot devices - any attempt to smuggle or sell them covertly in large amounts is a scam. At most it should be an "and finally" news story.

1. The world's largest depository (the Fed's DTC which holds $10tn in assets) only holds $3.5bn in US Treasury bearer bonds and only deals with 700,000 coupons a year (a decline of 98.5% since 1991).
2. No bearer bonds have been issued since 1982.
3. Most outstanding bearer bonds have been called early because of high coupon rates.
4. Almost all bearer bonds will be out of circulation by 2013.

http://www.investmenthouse.investopedia.com/articles/bonds/08/bearer-bond.asp?Page=2

dopester

Mr_Mumble wrote: »

Because serious news organisations know unregistered/bearer bonds are little more than a lazy hollywood plot devices - any attempt to smuggle or sell them covertly in large amounts is a scam. At most it should be an "and finally" news story

Does that include Treasury Bills and Certificates of Deposit, and other securities or bills of exchange? You are really confident that there are no securities which are payable to the bearer?

This is the latest amendment version I can find for (PDF file):

The Treasury Bills (Amendment) Regulations 1999

*If this blank is not filled in, the Bill will be paid to bearer.

bubblesmoney

these bearer bonds were caught in transit at the swiss border. looks like it was headed to be deposited in one of the swiss banks. someone dealing with those kind of bonds of hundreds of billions of dollars worth would know how to check their authenticity or get someone appropriate to check it. so my bet would be that they would be genuine and italy just got a 40% of the 134.5 billion bonanza from the penalty tax for non disclosure of securities while leaving the country.

these bonds might have been non redeemable by issuer at an early date or perpetual bonds or with no maturity date. the uk issued perpetual bonds, i dont know if usa did the same. if they had a maturity of 30y or more and had built in protection clauses for preventing early call (i dont know the exact term used for that) option by the govt etc then these bonds could still be valid even if the usa stopped issuing such bonds in the 80s. after all there is no point in carrying around this stuff surreptiously if it wasnt cashable.

i guess generalis view that this might have been sold on to these chaps and then someone leaked the info to the authorities for what ever reasons suited them.

bubblesmoney

Bonds are probably smuggled genuine

see link to german news website translated via google language tools