Where is the dream team of economists to tackle the slump?

mewbie_2

Did you know that eight fold can mean eight times?

thor

GeorgeHowell wrote: »

But it's not an exact science.

It is not a science at all. I have never revered economists. The economic 'Gods' are the ones that get lucky with their predictions, nothing more. I regard the subject as nothing more than a pseudoscience much like psychology and astrology. People are unpredictably unpredictable and cannot be modeled.

lostinrates

thor wrote: »

The economic 'Gods' are the ones that get lucky with their predictions, nothing more. .

well, Thor, don't worry, they are not moving in in your territory.

Have you ever heard the joke about when Thor was riding his horse into war?

Strapped

thor wrote: »

It is not a science at all. I have never revered economists. The economic 'Gods' are the ones that get lucky with their predictions, nothing more. I regard the subject as nothing more than a pseudoscience much like psychology and astrology. People are unpredictably unpredictable and cannot be modeled.

I'd love to know what you do for a living Thor (apart from the obvious war and thunder making).

GeorgeHowell

thor wrote: »

It is not a science at all. I have never revered economists. The economic 'Gods' are the ones that get lucky with their predictions, nothing more. I regard the subject as nothing more than a pseudoscience much like psychology and astrology. People are unpredictably unpredictable and cannot be modeled.

It's a social science and therefore in the middle ground, as is psychology. It attempts to discipline itself with methodological conventions and constraints which are analagous to those employed in pure sciences.

Regarding being lucky, no doubt this is true, but it is true of many if not most walks of life -- as Napoleon Bonaparte enquired when a particular General was recommended for promotion, "But is he lucky !" (given the eventual fate of Bonaparte's army, presumably he wasn't !).

In business management in particular luck plays a great part. Jack Welch the ex-GE boss and revered (in some quarters) guru believes that many allegedly successful managements live off the good luck of being in the right place at the right time -- ie when the market demand for their product happens to be in the ascendent, and usually when coupled with an economic boom. But in reality, for many managements, when they make a profit they don't really know how they do it, and when they make a loss they don't really know why either. Even in pure science discovering things by accident -- serendipity -- often plays a big role.

Generali

thor wrote: »

It is not a science at all. I have never revered economists. The economic 'Gods' are the ones that get lucky with their predictions, nothing more. I regard the subject as nothing more than a pseudoscience much like psychology and astrology. People are unpredictably unpredictable and cannot be modeled.

I did an economics degree, worked in banking/hedge funds for 12 years and am now an economics tutor and can say without hesitation that most economists are full of poo and don't know their bell curve shaped &rse from their elbow.

The Dismal Science? That's being nice.

tomterm8

thor wrote: »

I regard the subject as nothing more than a pseudoscience much like psychology and astrology. People are unpredictably unpredictable and cannot be modeled.

To be honest, as someone with no economics training, macro economics has always struck me as a branch of applied sociology*.

* god help us all, but most sociology professors couldn't find their donkey with a global positioning system.

CLAPTON

during the great depression, unemployment in the UK reached 23%.
since the war although unemployment has fluctuated it's probably not been much above 10%

some people would say that a better understanding of economics has allowed governments to keep unemployment down.
some of course wouldn't