Anyone Nervous?

macaque_2

Dan: wrote: »

You are correct, I think prices will stay at around this level (lets say 10% either way) for the next few years - so no significant HPI - it just cannot happen during these times.

I asked the question because many people were banging on about 2009 being much worse then 2008, some people were expecting prices to drop 50% (even 70%) by the close of this year.

This has not happened and we are almost half way through the year - are these people getting nervous and re-thinking their strategy?

As chairman of the 70% society I have to correct you on this. No one in our group has suggested 70% falls by 2009. Splinter groups such as 'continuity 70%' and 'the real 70% club have made a few wild statements but these are extremist group. As spokesman for the society, we do not expect to reach 70% falls for at least 3 years.

Snooze

Dan: wrote: »

It's not because they are expecting further drops, its because of that old thing called the credit crunch - the reduction in the general availability of loans.

If they could, they would be offering 95% and 100% products - and one day they will again.

I disagree. You're not seriously trying to get me to believe that the banks have only got enough cash to lend to a max of 90% LTV and can't stretch to 95% ? :rotfl:

I don't know for sure any more than you do, but it is my belief that the banks have plentttttttttttty of cash on hand to lend to people/businesses/property that are good risks. Lending high LTV on property right now is not a good risk and hence why they require substantial deposits so that the chances of them getting shafted if the property value should drop would be slim.

Rob

Dan:_4

macaque wrote: »

As chairman of the 70% society I have to correct you on this. No one in our group has suggested 70% falls by 2009. Splinter groups such as 'continuity 70%' and 'the real 70% club have made a few wild statements but these are extremist group. As spokesman for the society, we do not expect to reach 70% falls for at least 3 years.

Thanks for clarifing.

Im glad to see the club still going through these uncertain times.

lostinrates

macaque wrote: »

As chairman of the 70% society

who else is in it?

Dan:_4

Snooze wrote: »

I disagree. You're not seriously trying to get me to believe that the banks have only got enough cash to lend to a max of 90% LTV and can't stretch to 95% ? :rotfl:

I don't know for sure any more than you do, but it is my belief that the banks have plentttttttttttty of cash on hand to lend to people/businesses/property that are good risks. Lending high LTV on property right now is not a good risk and hence why they require substantial deposits so that the chances of them getting shafted if the property value should drop would be slim.

Rob

Your right Rob, I agree 100% - which is why I have banged on about ensuring ones credit rating is in top notch over the last 12 months.

This does not mean lenders are expecting [significant] further drops.

Dan:_4

lostinrates wrote: »

who else is in it?

BRIT1234 is the other member.

pickles110564

Dan, to answer your original post I think that Carolt, Brit and addowney and his sockies are getting very nervous and rightly so.
They have been unable to worry everyone in to panic selling so that they can pick up a home of their own.
Lets hope that us Bulls dont keep posting too many good news stories so that they dont have to many sleepless nights.
Lets face it though they should still have a couple of years of low interest rates to set up a sensible mortgage.
I have been trying to keep them informed of the increasing speed of the recovery and will continue to do so, I just hope they heed this information so that they dont have to wait for another 10 to 15 years for the next crash.

Thrugelmir

Dan: wrote: »

It's not because they are expecting further drops, its because of that old thing called the credit crunch - the reduction in the general availability of loans.

If they could, they would be offering 95% and 100% products - and one day they will again.

If I was a banker I would prefer the bulk of my loan book on a 75% LTV basis at say 4% interest rate than 95%/100% LTV at 5.5%. Whilst the higher lending rate obviously suggests a higher profit. Factoring in defaults which unfortunately occur whatever the economic situation why should I take excessive risk.

As you say there is a reduction in available loan finance. Which any remaining lenders in the market can use to now to improve theit profit margins without taking excessive risk.

Thrugelmir

Dan: wrote: »

Are we now at the bottom of this recession?

• Pound Rising on signs that the worst of the recession is now over
• FTSE recovering
• Interest rates at 0.5% and cheap mortgage deals

Has Gordon done it?


Is the 'feel good factor' back among the general public and home owners?

Would you consider buying now, or risk another decade of paying someone else's mortgage?

Are you confusing recession with the economy? Yes we may be coming out of the recession. As for the economy its in a pretty sick state that in many ways hasn't come close to the bottom yet.

Someone will nerves of steel has to yet address the issues of the Public Sector. Tough decisions have to be made.

Yes I am nervous. As it feels like the lull before the storm. The news has been dominated by trivial nonsense about moats, duck ponds and house flipping. Where's the debate on how this country rebuilds its finances?

As for buying a house. Its totally down to ones own situation and circumstances.

neas

If i was in a situation to buy i prob still wouldnt, just when i first decided not to buy in dec 2007 when prices werent falling rapidly and yoy was still positive and everyone was saying it will rise, then level, then fall just a little ,then fall just a bit, then fall 10%, then fall 15%, then fall 20%, then fall 30%.

I still wouldny buy, because my brain tells me something is weird.

The crash we had now was caused by credit crunch
To solve the credit crunch and repair banks/confidence the BOE reduced interest rates to a RECORD LOW of 0.5%....
Next stage we will start to see those interest rates creep up to 6%+ to reduce inflation during a recession.
The next stage of the crash will happen at this point, even if prices recover during this period it would be about 5% up... then another 20% down again.


In summary the crash we had was an artificial crash, the next crash will be the traditional inflation, everyone crap themselves one.