Halifax +2.6 % MoM

ad9898_3

Kenny4315 wrote: »

I'm 39, and the signs throughout the year have been that the worst is over and the market has stablised around the 17.5 to 22.5% range. It is you who are in ignorant bliss, as the market is showing many positive signs, and the force of the recession is holding back interest rates, and in general things seems to be fairly solid now.

That's great then, I'm sure you'll be fine.

It is impossible for the next 20 months or so to have such catastrohic events on that scale, so why would house prices collaspe, maybe so small adjustments but nothing major

After what has just happened, never say never again. FWIW, I still think you should keep a tidy sum put away to buy up some houses, 30-35% down from peak is still highly likely given the economic outlook.

Don't forget, even if nothing else happens and the recession ended tomorrow, the government is spending on the never never at the moment, making as many people feel 'cushy' as it can (and it's working), to try and buy themselves enough time to win the election, but the bill will have to be paid, out of public sector cuts and your's and my taxes, it will stunt investment and growth in the future.

StevieJ

nearlynew wrote: »

I suggest you do some checking of my post which contains that claim I made.

You mean where you change the rates that are available now to FTBers and others to 'Long Term Average' 8% for convenience and to prove your point.

Kenny4315

ad9898 wrote: »

After what has just happened, never say never again. FWIW, I still think you should keep a tidy sum put away to buy up some houses, 30-35% down from peak is still highly likely given the economic outlook.

Are the economic events of the next 20 months going to be better or worse than the past 20 months or so. In all probability better by a substantial margin, the result will of course be that a collaspe would be out of the question, maybe we'll get up to 25% down on peak, but I doubt much more given the current drop afte all the sh7te that's occurred.

nearlynew

StevieJ wrote: »

You mean where you change the rates that are available now to FTBers and others to 'Long Term Average' 8% for convenience and to prove your point.

No. This one from post #444.............

As an aside, when people talk of 15% interest rates causing the last housing crash of the early 90s they are talking out of their a*se. Without going into the nitty-gritty of what did cause it, rates were at 15 % for one day only. Or even just overnight if I remember correctly. (can't be bothered to look)

baileysbattlebus

StevieJ wrote: »

You mean where you change the rates that are available now to FTBers and others to 'Long Term Average' 8% for convenience and to prove your point.

The Abbey currently offer a 10 years fix at 4.99% - you need 25% deposit - but well worth having.

And obviously the repayments are a lot less for a £200k mortgage at this rate than they are for £100k at 15%.

baileysbattlebus

No. This one from post #444.............


Quote:
As an aside, when people talk of 15% interest rates causing the last housing crash of the early 90s they are talking out of their a*se. Without going into the nitty-gritty of what did cause it, rates were at 15 % for one day only. Or even just overnight if I remember correctly. (can't be bothered to look)

Well look at post 447 - where there is a link to the mortgage rates from the Halifax - mortgage rates are not the base rate.

Rates were between 14.5% and 15.4% for nearly a year.

Did people say 15% mortgage rates caused the last crash?

nearlynew

baileysbattlebus wrote: »

Well look at post 447 - where there is a link to the mortgage rates from the Halifax - mortgage rates are not the base rate.

Rates were between 14.5% and 15.4% for nearly a year.

Did people say 15% mortgage rates caused the last crash?

I didn't mention mortgage rates.

StevieJ

nearlynew wrote: »

I didn't mention mortgage rates.

Base rate was 14.875% for a whole year, Oct 89 -Oct 90.

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/rates/baserate.pdf

nearlynew

I still stand by what I said................

High interest rates did not cause the last crash
and
BOE base rate during the early 90s ERM fiasco went to 15% for 1 night only.

StevieJ

nearlynew wrote: »

I still stand by what I said................

High interest rates did not cause the last crash
and
BOE base rate during the early 90s ERM fiasco went to 15% for 1 night only.

It actually went to 17% but we crashed out of the ERM before it could effect anyone.