Green shoots abound...

ruggedtoast

Spiv wrote: »

Also as stated in the "Nationwide Report" the following:-

“The movement of house prices ultimately depends on the balance of demand and supply of houses on the market. One timely indicator of the supply-demand balance is the ratio of sales to unsold stock, published monthly by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors."

And another one is buyers ability to pay asking prices, which always seems to be overlooked in these types of statements, and is one of the reasons Lamborghinis arent flying off the shelves at any given moment.

You can go on about limited supply all you like in the UK, theres a limited supply of people who can get a mortgage and a 10% deposit to spend £200k on a scuzzy flat in Hackney; which is what would be needed to restore a bubble in the housing market.

In my opinion this is underscored by the very low numbers of current transactions.

But what do I know, whatever happens will happen but personally I think this is a bad time to buy property.

Spiv_2

Yakubu22 wrote: »

What about the estimated 800,000 empty properties in the UK? You only need to look at apartment blocks around Manchester to see this. Towers of almost entirely empty flats. There is no shortage of property.

Can you show me the source for your 800,000 figure? It is entirely possible that too many flats were built in Manchester and elsewhere, but I am not aware that there are 800,000 houses currently empty?

Spiv_2

ruggedtoast wrote: »

You can go on about limited supply all you like in the UK, theres a limited supply of people who can get a mortgage and a 10% deposit to spend £200k on a scuzzy flat in Hackney; which is what would be needed to restore a bubble in the housing market.

In my opinion this is underscored by the very low numbers of current transactions.

But what do I know, whatever happens will happen but personally I think this is a bad time to buy property.

I can't see demand for property falling in Londan can you? London is surrounded by its orginal green belt created in the1930s. This caps London's population at 6 million....instead of 16 or 23 or higher. The Green Belt in London makes property scarce relative to the number who want to live there and therefore high prices come from this scarcity value.....

Wookster

Spiv wrote: »

I can't see demand for property falling in Londan can you? London is surrounded by its orginal green belt created in the1930s. This caps London's population at 6 million....instead of 16 or 23 or higher. The Green Belt in London makes property scarce relative to the number who want to live there and therefore high prices come from this scarcity value.....

London is very price sensitive at the moment. Prices have been buoyed by city wages & the influx of foreign workers. With financial services shrinking permanently and a more burdensome tax regime (50% & the non dom charge) I'd expect to see those trends reverse.

pizzagirl

Spiv wrote: »

I can't see demand for property falling in Londan can you? London is surrounded by its orginal green belt created in the1930s. This caps London's population at 6 million....instead of 16 or 23 or higher. The Green Belt in London makes property scarce relative to the number who want to live there and therefore high prices come from this scarcity value.....

There's alot more than 6 million people in London. Anyway, higher wages is a much more important contributor to higher house prices in the Capital than any alleged scarcity of housing

chucky

Wookster wrote: »

London is very price sensitive at the moment. Prices have been buoyed by city wages & the influx of foreign workers. With financial services shrinking permanently and a more burdensome tax regime (50% & the non dom charge) I'd expect to see those trends reverse.

not sure about that - the banks seem to be finding their feet now.
not sure where you're getting that it's shrinking permanently from. there are quite a few banks recruiting Barcap is major at the moment.

i'm working in the City and there are jobs about.
not as many permenant roles but lots and lots of temp and contract roles out there to be had for those that want to work.

Yakubu22

Spiv wrote: »

Can you show me the source for your 800,000 figure? It is entirely possible that too many flats were built in Manchester and elsewhere, but I am not aware that there are 800,000 houses currently empty?

The Empty Homes Agency;

http://www.bbc.co.uk/homes/property/buying_rescueahouse1.shtml

or

http://www.emptyhomes.com/

I dont believe the problem is unique to Manchester. I understand a lot of major cities have similar areas.

Dan:_4

Yakubu22 wrote: »

What about the estimated 800,000 empty properties in the UK? You only need to look at apartment blocks around Manchester to see this. Towers of almost entirely empty flats. There is no shortage of property.

Yeah, but know one wants to live there.

Spiv_2

Wookster wrote: »

London is very price sensitive at the moment. Prices have been buoyed by city wages & the influx of foreign workers. With financial services shrinking permanently and a more burdensome tax regime (50% & the non dom charge) I'd expect to see those trends reverse.

Good points. LR shows prices are rising in the capital at the moment - agreed?

Spiv_2

pizzagirl wrote: »

There's alot more than 6 million people in London. Anyway, higher wages is a much more important contributor to higher house prices in the Capital than any alleged scarcity of housing

OK - according to wiki it's 7 million.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_London

This creates a cap on London's population and makes property, particularly houses, scarce. I think it could be reasonably be argued that the wages are higher because of the high cost of housing (caused by scarcity) and not the other way around.