House prices FALL -0.3% MoM - Land Registry

Dan:_4

Sig Updated.

The actual figure has increased by a whole £3, so obviously seasonally adjusted.

System

Dan: wrote: »

Sig Updated.

The actual figure has increased by a whole £3, so obviously seasonally adjusted.

THREE pounds! Consider that boat well and truly missed!

StevieJ

Dan: wrote: »

Sig Updated.

The actual figure has increased by a whole £3, so obviously seasonally adjusted.

That is interesting, if they are months behind how do they decide what season they are in

chucky

Dan: wrote: »

Sig Updated.

The actual figure has increased by a whole £3, so obviously seasonally adjusted.

not much movement over the last 4 months on the un-adjusted numbers

February 2009 £153,956
March 2009 £153,359
April 2009 £152,898

ad9898_3

skap7309 wrote: »

I would certainly agree - phase one is drawing to a close. Phase two is when IR / taxes start to climb.

IR/taxes are going to the third leg down I reckon, unemployment will be the second to come into play, look for some hefty falls starting when winter sets in, the third leg won't come into play until after the election, when all the tough decisions are going to be made.

My view is from now on we are going to see a 'normal' crash like the one in the '90s, where only twice did we see falls above 1% per month, think of the 20% so far as 'free HPC', which was delivered by near collapse of the financial system, the next 20% will take much longer, probably 3-4 years.

The second and third legs down will be delivered courtesy of the economic climate followed by tax rises and IR rises. The Spring bounce will be a distant memory come Nov/Dec.

nearlynew

There is no point arguing about it.
Does it matter what some report or other says about tiny increases or tiny decreases?

Or which report is the best or more accurate or more up to date.

As Bob Dylan says:

"You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows"

Dan:_4

nearlynew wrote: »

There is no point arguing about it.
Does it matter what some report or other says about tiny increases or tiny decreases?

Or which report is the best or more accurate or more up to date.

But its fun

StevieJ

nearlynew wrote: »

There is no point arguing about it.
Does it matter what some report or other says about tiny increases or tiny decreases?

Or which report is the best or more accurate or more up to date.

As Bob Dylan says:

"You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows"

Was he not also the author of that new paridigm 'It is different this time'

The times they are a changing

mewbie_2

Apparently we can't read anything into one months figures, or several, or from the media, or indeed any reporting source. All areas vary, and all posters have a vested interest. It is impossible to predict anything, and nor should it be attempted. It may be much better to borrow a lot of money and stick it into BTL without any clue as to what the future may hold.

Californication

Generali wrote: »

Supply is down as economic theory would predict - falling prices often cause a fall in supply.

Generally speaking, 70k completions a month are required for prices to rise. It's a correlation - you can argue the toss about whether it's a cancer causes smoking or smoking causes cancer statistic but this can be shown AIUI.

I'm sure you're correct; however, do you have a source on the regression data for the 70k? It'd be interesting to see the R^2, etc, and what input data was used. Ie, was it just UK or wider and over what period of time.

For instance, the Morgan Kelly regressions on OECD crashes had good predictive power just using length of bubble and amount of HPI during boom.

Thanks
--C