It`s different this time

Pobby

I have been thinking about some of the differences between the recession of the 90s and the one we have now. To start the ball rolling, the major thing that sticks out a mile is that IRs are at an all time low. Last time around they were, for the main part, around low double digits.

MrDT

Personal debt must be way higher than 20 years ago. But I cba looking up the figures.

purch

It`s different this time

The Bumbling Fumbling Idiot, "Shuffley Shoes" Lamont isn't Chancellor...:rolleyes:

.........hang on, the Bumbling Fumbling Idiot "Badger Face" Darling is Chancellor, so plus ca change ??

Mini_Bear

Was unemployment at the same levels as now?
Was there the same level of council/social housing (ie non?)
Was there hundereds of thousands of new graduates looking for skilled jobs?
Were there hundreds of half built housing estates/tower blocks gathering dust?
I was 6 in '91 so cant remember a lot. Dad took voluntary redundancy then and got a massive retirement package at 50 from BT. he used to tell me about the stock markets then and i remember some mums crying outside school to my ma as their husbands had lost their jobs. i couldnt understandfthe fuss as i thought not having a job meant a permananent holiday - ahhhhh the ignorance of youth!

baby_boomer

Graduate debt of £30K is different.

The compelling need for tax rises is different.

The banks' need to rebuild their capital bases (by offering poorer mortgage rates even when interest rates have to rise) is much greater.

dopester

Pobby wrote: »

I have been thinking about some of the differences between the recession of the 90s and the one we have now. To start the ball rolling, the major thing that sticks out a mile is that IRs are at an all time low. Last time around they were, for the main part, around low double digits.

House prices are in another realm. Last crash.. .what.... a home-owner might see the value of their property fall, from say £65,000 to £35,000.

They may even be in negative equity for that £30,000.

This time the drops in value, and other owners lowering their asking prices on Righmove in the hope of finding a buyer, have seen epic sums wiped off value from peak, and the expectation of a lot more to come.

purch

Last crash.. .what.... a home-owner might see the value of their property fall, from say £65,000 to £35,000.

Mine went from £150,000 in 1988 to £93,500 in 1992 :eek:

Luckily I got out of it in 1990 for £133,000 :cool:

mewbie_2

purch wrote: »

Luckily I got out of it in 1990 for £133,000 :cool:

And I expect the buyers at that time thought they'd scored a bargain. Long, long way to go yet.

amcluesent

>I have been thinking about some of the differences between the recession of the 90s<

• The gargantuan private and public debt means demand is always snuffed out by the imperative of repayment of interest and capital (or we default)
• Clown's bungling has left the roads, rail, power infrastructure in tatters and the Nimbys have prevented any renewal Any recovery will mean the power drain is too much and the lights will go out in 2011
• Britain plc has working-age people with even fewer skills (most are cretins) and has too high a cost-base (tax) to be competitive
• The benefits system for IB/HB etc. is so generous no-one wants to work once they've been feather bedded, every chav girl dreams of dropping her brat and getting the council house.
• The bloated public-sector, it's red-tape and army of inspector's is sucking the life out of the economy
• The 'baby boomers' are 15 years older, increasing the expense on the NHS for long term treatment of degenerative illnesses
• The nation's pension-pot has been robbed out, so millions of people will have desperate standard of living when they get the push at 50.
• Unfunded gold-plated public sector schemes will mean today's workers will be slaves to the taxman
• There's uncounted millions of EE immigrants and 'seekers' going feral, crime wave in the making
• We are past peak oil and any recovery will rapidly force us to $200 oil
• 2,000,000 smart people have fled Labour Britain since 1997 taking their skills with them.

purch

Was unemployment at the same levels as now?
Was there the same level of council/social housing (ie non?)
Was there hundereds of thousands of new graduates looking for skilled jobs?
Were there hundreds of half built housing estates/tower blocks gathering dust?

1. Similar
2. Similar......by then most had already been sold off
3. Nowhere near as many as today
4. There were a lot (not anywhere near as many as today) but the clearest sign of the upcoming crash in 1989/90 were the huge amount of overpriced Property Developments (Flats) that suddenly sprung up *. When the same thing was happening in 2005-2007 it was a clear sign that the end was nigh.

*the Flats I bought at auction in 1991 for £40-£45K were selling for £185,000 in 1990.

purch

>I have been thinking about some of the differences between the recession of the 90s<

• The gargantuan private and public debt means demand is always snuffed out by the imperative of repayment of interest and capital (or we default)
• Clown's bungling has left the roads, rail, power infrastructure in tatters and the Nimbys have prevented any renewal Any recovery will mean the power drain is too much and the lights will go out in 2011
• Britain plc has working-age people with even fewer skills (most are cretins) and has too high a cost-base (tax) to be competitive
• The benefits system for IB/HB etc. is so generous no-one wants to work once they've been feather bedded
• The bloated public-sector, it's red-tape and army of inspector's is sucking the life out of the economy
• The 'baby boomers' are 15 years older, increasing the expense on the NHS for long term treatment of degenerative illnesses
• The nation's pension-pot has been robbed out, so millions of people will have desperate standard of living when they get the push at 50.
• There's uncounted millions of immigrants going feral
• We are past peak oil and any recovery will rapidly force us to $200 oil

I'd agree with just about all of that, if it wasn't for the absurd and totally unnecessary bigotry of the second to last point.