A postcard from the 70% club

IveSeenTheLight

macaque wrote: »

HSBC are offering a rate of 2.49% fixed for 2 years but.......... you need to have a deposit of 40%.

Halifax are offering a FTB rate from 5.69% fixed for 5 years but.......... you need to have a 10% deposit

http://www.halifax.co.uk/mortgages/first-time-buyer-fixed-75LTV.asp

StevieJ

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Halifax are offering a FTB rate from 5.69% fixed for 5 years but.......... you need to have a 10% deposit

http://www.halifax.co.uk/mortgages/first-time-buyer-fixed-75LTV.asp

Wish Those sort of deals were available when I first bought a house.

ad9898_3

StevieJ wrote: »

Wish Those sort of deals were available when I first bought a house.

But on the other hand I bet your glad that houses were probably a third or maybe even a quarter of the price that they are now when you first bought.

StevieJ

ad9898 wrote: »

But on the other hand I bet your glad that houses were probably a third or maybe even a quarter of the price that they are now when you first bought.

I dare say my salary was a third or quarter as well especially as we appear to be close to historic multiples.

Max_Headroom_3

So just to be clear.

The "70% Club" believe that a perfectly average family house that was selling on average for £150,000 will soon be typically and averagely for sale for £45,000?

Have I got that right?

StevieJ

Max_Headroom wrote: »

So just to be clear.

The "70% Club" believe that a perfectly average family house that was selling on average for £150,000 will soon be typically and averagely for sale for £45,000?

Have I got that right?

Yep, you got that right, don't forget though wages are going to be falling back to 1990 levels.

ess0two

Max_Headroom wrote: »

So just to be clear.

The "70% Club" believe that a perfectly average family house that was selling on average for £150,000 will soon be typically and averagely for sale for £45,000?

Have I got that right?

Yep thats right,takes Dopesters advice sell up and buy 2 properties within the next 5 yrs.

JonnyBravo

Max_Headroom wrote: »

So just to be clear.

The "70% Club" believe that a perfectly average family house that was selling on average for £150,000 will soon be typically and averagely for sale for £45,000?

Have I got that right?

I have to admit I'm unclear what macaque means... and having read the original thread macaque doesn't make it clear which of the options outlined below he means. Perhaps he's hedging his bets! Coward!

Does he really mean 70% off peak or is he referring to this section of the original article?

Research by professor Morgan Kelly of University College Dublin shows that house price bubble across the world have similar characteristics. On average prices lose 70% of the gains made from trough to peak before bottoming out. This research is backed up by an international study made by the Bank of International Settlements in 2004, which found a strong positive correlation between the size of a housing bubble and the subsequent fall.
The doomsday scenario?
So if Professor Kelly's 70% figure is accurate, where would that leave UK house prices? The last downturn in the housing market ended in July 1995, when average prices according to the Halifax were £61,000. That gain, trough to peak over 12 years, is £139,000. So if this is a typical bubble, the fall would be 70% of that, £97,000, taking the price of the average house at the low to just £103,000.

Quite a lot of difference I'm sure you'll agree.
I have to say I don't think either is likely tocome to pass but clearly the prediction outlined above is much more likely.... just as it is more expensive for FTBers :rolleyes:


As for my response to his "postcard".....

"Come on in.... the (homeowning) water is lovely!!!"

macaque_2

JonnyBravo

My first reference to 70% pre-dates that article by many months.

Max headroom

I have made no references to 'perfectly average family house' and I have not used the word 'soon'.


It is common sense guys:

1. If house prices are struggling to stabilise at base rates less than one tenth of the long term average, it stands to reason that a return to normal interest rates will cut the legs from the housing market.

2. Interest rates have to go up if the government wants to go on borrowing at current levels.

3. We have falling incomes and the prospect of more than a million job losses on the way,

The housing market is looking increasingly like the 'Black Knight' in Monty Python and the holy grail. With both arms and legs sliced off at the trunk, the Knight screamed "come back and fight you cowards". The best propaganda machines in the world cannot keep the housing bubble inflated with all its limbs decapitated.

StevieJ

Same old crap from the monkey, like he makes out that FTB rates are closely linked to base rate and no mention that that banks are repairing balance sheets and not lending normally at the moment. Ignoring the fact that many mortgage holders are busy reducing mortgage balances with the savings from low interest rates. Also the fact that not many distressed sellers and estimates for reposessions are being cut from the 75k that were earlier forecast.

"Despite technical issues this quarter affecting our ability to compare arrears and possession rates with earlier periods, it is clear that mortgage arrears continued to increase. So did repossessions, but not as much as our 75,000 forecast figure for the year would suggest. So our forecast now looks pessimistic and we expect to revise it over the next month or so. ,