What the EU Thinks of the UK Economy (Cert 18)

Generali

Thanks for your kind words everybody - it looks like things are starting to come together. I've applied for well in excess of 100 jobs so it's about time.

The way things are at the moment, I have a job as a mortgage broker (commission only), a job as a train driver that I believe that I just have to pass a medical to secure and an interview to be a bank manager. It's taken a long time to get to this position!

PasturesNew

Generali wrote: »

Thanks for your kind words everybody - it looks like things are starting to come together. I've applied for well in excess of 100 jobs so it's about time.

The way things are at the moment, I have a job as a mortgage broker (commission only), a job as a train driver that I believe that I just have to pass a medical to secure and an interview to be a bank manager. It's taken a long time to get to this position!

Slacker!


Good luck with that lot.

Generali

StevieJ wrote: »

I think we will concentrate on the 100's of billions of pounds deficit spending for now :eek: Tell you we will leave it to you to check the travel receipts.

Well you know what they say, "Look after the hundreds of billions and the pennies will take care of themselves".

ruggedtoast

Generali wrote: »

Thanks for your kind words everybody - it looks like things are starting to come together. I've applied for well in excess of 100 jobs so it's about time.

The way things are at the moment, I have a job as a mortgage broker (commission only), a job as a train driver that I believe that I just have to pass a medical to secure and an interview to be a bank manager. It's taken a long time to get to this position!

Good grief go for the train driver job!

Generali

ruggedtoast wrote: »

Good grief go for the train driver job!

The train driver job pays $50,000 and involves shift work. Probably 80,000 after shift payments. Shift work reduces your life expectancy considerably. On the plus side, I could do a masters and it's a job it's almost impossible to be fired from. Also I would acheive God-like status with my son!

The bank manager job would involve working the odd Saturday and pays $130,000pa and very generous perks (including a subsidised mortgage and company car which would dramatically reduce my living costs). I wouldn't have to commute as I could afford to live very near work.

Still think I should be a train driver?

dopester

Bank manager has to be better than mortgage advisor - so long as you can get people saving and liquid, and not keep exposing their wealth to property.

You were bigging-up the BTL scene in Sydney on the other thread. :rolleyes:

What a dooming job that is, as far as I'm concerned. We obviously do not share the same outlook for Australia and Sydney property values. I'm expecting values to crash crash crash hard.

Tougher employment conditions, pressures on pay, company profits falling, and property values which are at pretty extreme levels.

Generali wrote: »

I think BTL is a better proposition in Aus (or Sydney at least) than in the UK due to different tax treatments and also what appears to be a genuine shortage of rental accomodation - tenants I know are also complaining about a lack of supply.

Generali

dopester wrote: »

Bank manager has to be better than mortgage advisor - so long as you can get people saving and liquid, and not keep exposing their wealth to property.

You were bigging-up the BTL scene in Sydney on the other thread. :rolleyes:

What a dooming job that is, as far as I'm concerned. We obviously do not share the same outlook for Australia and Sydney property values. I'm expecting values to crash crash crash hard.

Tougher employment conditions, pressures on pay, company profits falling, and property values which are at pretty extreme levels.

Ah well, re the BTL in Sydney thing, it's about cashflow, not capital values. You can get a gross yield of about 8% with a tenant in place in large swathes of the Western Suburbs because everyone knows you're not going to get capital growth out West 'cos who wants to live with the Westies?

I'm pretty bearish on Sydney property prices. That doesn't make Western Sydney BTL a bad investment unless you're investing for capital growth or even looking to maintain capital. If you're investing specifically to get a positive flow of cash then it's a great investment right now. You can get 8% yield on most properties in suburbs like Wentworthville, Blacktown, Toongabbie, Westmead, Greystanes and even Parramatta. The RBA rate is 3%, term deposit rates are 4-5%.

My guess is short term BTL will make money (1 year), mid-term there'll be a paper loss which may be quite significant (3 years perhaps due to falling capital values). Longer than that the cashflow gains should outweigh the capital losses. Not a great play for the massively leveraged but for someone with cash I reckon it's great.

dopester

Edited by Dopester.

Short-version. I believe any person who has AUS capital/money is best off putting spreading it between savings accounts savings paying 4% to 5% than in Sydney BTL, even with 8% yields, after the capital losses to come.

That applies to an investor who could buy outright (without debt) to buy a BTL, or one who would have to take on a mortgage at 3%,4%,5% to go BTL investing.

There is no under-supply. Capital values will fall, and rental values will fall just like in the UK.

fc123

Man ...your head's busy at the mo DS. Nice to see you around though...gives me a reason to log on again.

dopester

fc123 wrote: »

Man ...your head's busy at the mo DS. Nice to see you around though...gives me a reason to log on again.

Yes that was a little too much indepth forecasting - and I could be wrong. It just seems many lessons learnt here seemingly aren't thought to apply to Australia?

Hi fc. I thought my posts on deflation, and regrettably, the consequences it will bring for many people, had turned you a bit against me. Some people think I want bad things, but that is not true. I just see it as the least damaging solution for the majority of people and which allows opportunity for future generations. My deflation in-depth posts are over. I've tried to warn and hope people may have taken strategies to protect themselves, or at least partially hedge against the risks.

I've missed your interesting tales from the retail-side, and all the other interesting posts I read you for. Such as major real-world ones where schools suddenly closing down, leaving you and other parents with decisions to make, such as moving..

Throughout my time here, and all the discussions goneby, I've always considered you a fine example of a balanced, hard-working, creative, value-producing individual and business-person.