Just taking stock

tomterm8

Generali wrote: »

StevieJ - It was the economic orthodoxy of the time that this pricing model should bec used for nationalised industries.

I think that is one of the scariest things... that this pricing model was economic orthodoxy... it suggest that nearly all the economists can be wrong all the time.

Who knows, maybe the current economic orthodoxy is equally as far up its own...

lostinrates

Generali, thank you my chum, yet again whetting my appetite for learning something. Its all so very interesting and foreign to me.

Thrugelmir

mitchaa wrote: »

Unemployment? Surely the majority of companies have already made their cut backs by now? Unemployment will increase no doubt but i question if the rising numbers will have an effect on the housing market. If we see a further 900k people end up in the dole queue, are they homeowners who will be forced to sell, or are they council tenants on welfare benefits?

Around 50% of the UK workforce is employed in SME's. Unlike the PLC's which shut factories or transfer complete offices abroad. The cut in employment in SME's will not hit the news. Pubs around here , already suffering difficult times, are cutting staff for example. One recently on the radio said that they had cut from 18 to 12 staff. Ok so only 6 people. But thats a 30% reduction in head count. Thats a fall out from the Honda plant shutdown. As disposal income for 4,500 people has been reduced. The impact of the recession is going to roll on as more businesses reduce their overheads to survive.

As an side expect a further contraction in the financial services sector. Not just the banks. But insurance and pension providers etc.

StevieJ

lostinrates wrote: »

Generali, thank you my chum, yet again whetting my appetite for learning something. Its all so very interesting and foreign to me.

I wouldn't bother learning that, it will not be coming back although it is relevant as economic history.

StevieJ

Generali wrote: »

All fair points StevieJ.

The 70,000 mortgages thing AFAIK is just a piece of number crunching - it's not really economics at all, more stats really.
.

So is we had the following forecast correct, would you think the market may have bottomed?

[SIZE=-1]AMIT KARA, UK ECONOMIST, UBS[/SIZE]
[SIZE=-1]"As far as the mortgage approvals numbers are concerned, they are broadly in line with expectation, marginally lower.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=-1]"But the big picture (is) we still expect a recovery in housing activity over the next few months, partly because demand has been fairly resilient at these low levels but also because the supply of funding is going to be a lot more generous with Northern Rock coming into the market.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=-1]"So we are looking for approvals at around 55,000-60,000 by the end of the year."[/SIZE]

mewbie_2

StevieJ wrote: »

would you think the market may have bottomed?

I don't think the market has bottomed. The States is still dropping, looking for a bottom which will enable proper valuation of all that toxic stuff. They are 18 months ahead of us, and had less of a dare-I-say bubble than the UK.

I could post links to back this up, but we all have internet access. It's just surprising how different our search results are. I recommend Google.

StevieJ

mewbie wrote: »

I don't think the market has bottomed. The States is still dropping, looking for a bottom which will enable proper valuation of all that toxic stuff. They are 18 months ahead of us, and had less of a dare-I-say bubble than the UK.

I could post links to back this up, but we all have internet access. It's just surprising how different our search results are. I recommend Google.

As has been stated many,many times using the US market as a predictor of the UK is a futile misuse of your Googling finger

mewbie_2

StevieJ wrote: »

As has been stated many,many times using the US market as a predictor of the UK is a futile misuse of your Googling finger

But as a comparison of some sorts it works for me.

We had a bigger bubble and started crashing after the States.
We had similar problems with sub-prime (oh yes), BTL, flipping and all the rest of the HPI nonsense.
Our economic outlook is worse than the US. I know, I know - they have a big debt - but they're the States, not some two bit backward once great country that doesn't make anything anymore.
They have Obama. We don't. Nor likely to have.

And finally the killer factor for me on a Bank holiday Sunday morning. It's what I reckon.

StevieJ

mewbie wrote: »

But as a comparison of some sorts it works for me.

We had a bigger bubble and started crashing after the States.
We had similar problems with sub-prime (oh yes), BTL, flipping and all the rest of the HPI nonsense.
Our economic outlook is worse than the US. I know, I know - they have a big debt - but they're the States, not some two bit backward once great country that doesn't make anything anymore.
They have Obama. We don't. Nor likely to have.

And finally the killer factor for me on a Bank holiday Sunday morning. It's what I reckon.

We had similar problems with sub-prime (oh yes), BTL, flipping and all the rest of the HPI nonsense.

No we didn't

mewbie_2

StevieJ wrote: »

We had similar problems with sub-prime (oh yes), BTL, flipping and all the rest of the HPI nonsense.

No we didn't

Yes we did.

http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/economics/britains-subprime-problem-is-bigger-than-you-think.aspx

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=axWmsMHJDjiQ&refer=home

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article2397.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/2816475/IMF-fears-over-Britains-sub-prime-market.html

http://www.spectator.co.uk/the-magazine/features/587641/welcome-to-subprime-britain-how-scared-should-you-be.thtml

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/property_and_mortgages/article2933895.ece

http://www.ashleymoore.co.uk/BuyToLet_article1.htm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/panorama/7037635.stm

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2007/aug/21/money.mortgages

Like I said. Google is your friend.