UK house prices down 23 percent in real terms.

Generali

StevieJ wrote: »

The irony is that can only be positive for the market as it makes it cheaper for people to purchase from abroad

I believe that there are about a dozen websites now in Bulgaria tracking the prices of 2-bed executive flats in Barnsley with forum members just waiting for the moment to swoop.

the_ash_and_the_oak

kennyboy66 wrote: »

They should be - however which measure of inflation to use would be one question.

In most other crashes, inflation has masked real declines in house prices.

The interesting thing is that many on here were explicitly warning of 50-70% nominal falls.
Now they are talking about real falls.
The real doomsters are then saying that falls are even higher because of the fall in sterling.
The complete nutters will probably go further by measuring houses against gold, oil, or bananas - anything that can be posted as a graph that looks a bit like Mount Everest.

Don't know anything about 50-70% falls - think 40% nominal is certainly possible. Not sure about using real falls right now in this kind of environment - feeling nominal is a good enough measure atm (caveat: I'd prob switch to real falls if there was any wage inflation)

the_ash_and_the_oak

StevieJ wrote: »

The irony is that can only be positive for the market as it makes it cheaper for people to purchase from abroad

Can't really get behind this. I know Russians in Mayfair or whatever were a contributory factor in the bubble - but not really feeling the idea that foreign buyers are going to be supporting the market across middle england.

fwiw think the foreign buyers in the bubble related to financial industry w big bonuses and lenient tax regime. Not really seeing so much of that on horizon right now imo

StevieJ

Generali wrote: »

I believe that there are about a dozen websites now in Bulgaria tracking the prices of 2-bed executive flats in Barnsley with forum members just waiting for the moment to swoop.

I think you have made that comment before , but property in Scotland, The Lakes, Chester,Bath, York, North Wales,West country,South Coast etc and let us not forget The Smoke may be fairly desirable to foreign investors at the right price. Add in the uncertainty about the Euro, may draw in Irish investors.

Generali

StevieJ wrote: »

I think you have made that comment before , but property in Scotland, The Lakes, Chester,Bath, York, North Wales,West country,South Coast etc and let us not forget The Smoke may be fairly desirable to foreign investors at the right price. Add in the uncertainty about the Euro, may draw in Irish investors.

Foreign buyers aren't going to be buying up 40-50,000 properties a month (5-600,000/year). That's the increase in sales numbers needed to prop up the market.

How many properties do you see foreigners wanting to buy in the UK out of interest? It's not like Britain is great for repeated family holidays as the weather's rubbish as is the skiing for 11 months a year. I just don't see it.

StevieJ

Generali wrote: »

Foreign buyers aren't going to be buying up 40-50,000 properties a month (5-600,000/year). That's the increase in sales numbers needed to prop up the market.

How many properties do you see foreigners wanting to buy in the UK

No idea, not saying they are going to prop up the market, I am saying can only be positive not negative.

lostinrates

Generali wrote: »

Foreign buyers aren't going to be buying up 40-50,000 properties a month (5-600,000/year). That's the increase in sales numbers needed to prop up the market.

How many properties do you see foreigners wanting to buy in the UK out of interest? It's not like Britain is great for repeated family holidays as the weather's rubbish as is the skiing for 11 months a year. I just don't see it.

Just where are the foreigners from now, too? Global recession...global consequences .

I think the smae old areas will remain prime to overseas, and domestic, investors.

Had to gigle the other day reading the key areas in SW london bnkers were loving'Fulham and wimbledon etc'...well, yes, sure,now, but because they could afford the areas they used to like. I rememeber Fulham being excused jokingly as west chelsea maybe 25 years ago, not being aspirational.

Thrugelmir

StevieJ wrote: »

I think you have made that comment before , but property in Scotland, The Lakes, Chester,Bath, York, North Wales,West country,South Coast etc and let us not forget The Smoke may be fairly desirable to foreign investors at the right price. Add in the uncertainty about the Euro, may draw in Irish investors.

The changes to personal taxation make it more likely that people with wealth are already looking for pads by Lake Geneva.

StevieJ

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The changes to personal taxation make it more likely that people with wealth are already looking for pads by Lake Geneva.

Good point.

ad9898_3

StevieJ wrote: »

I hope you will remind us of this when we are on -5% deflation at the end of the year

Don't be silly Steve, of course I won't.:D