Telegraph: wages collapse at fastest rate in 60 years

Dan:_4

lostinrates wrote: »

I am almost positive there is more bad news in industry/finance sector, if there is would you expect a knock on to things like HPs then?

The next main bout of bad news will be unemployment, this is alwasys the last thing to recover out of a recession and is likely to take years.

With the mortgage market showing improvements, low interest rates, and having already taken a 20% hit early on, I think it is unlikely we're see any further significant falls, maybe between 5-10% at the very most.

However, with the state of the economy I don't see how HPs can recover either, or show any signs of it rising - not for a good few years at least.

lostinrates

Dan: wrote: »

The next main bout of bad news will be unemployment, this is alwasys the last thing to recover out of a recession and is likely to take years.

With the mortgage market showing improvements, low interest rates, and having already taken a 20% hit early on, I think it is unlikely we're see any further significant falls, maybe between 5-10% at the very most.

However, with the state of the economy I don't see how HPs can recover either, or show any signs of it rising - not for a good few years at least.

Thank you . I think 5-10% is reasonably significant. 10% more would be another 50% of what we've already dropped, wouldn't it?

TBH, do think figures when they come through for now, will look more positive, I can't imagine they won't. But on the other hand I hear some more gloomy rumours from the city...I've been reading to see if Bendix might be hearing them too, similar/same rumour route you see.

the_ash_and_the_oak

Stablization at these prices would leave them precariously high and still vulnerable imo. can't really see it tbh

Generali

lostinrates wrote: »

I am almost positive there is more bad news in industry/finance sector, if there is would you expect a knock on to things like HPs then?

Cleverer people than me are saying that Bank of America and Citibank are insolvent.

House prices are extremely unlikely to rise in the face of rising unemployment. Taking an average of the past 3 recessions, unemployment has started rising 18 months after the end of the recession. The recession is still going on so even if things end right now we should still have a year or 2 of rising unemployment.

Let us not forget that these green shoots we are seeing are really just the economy no longer setting records for being the worst ever or at least the worst since WWII.

lemonjelly

Dan: wrote: »

The next main bout of bad news will be unemployment, this is alwasys the last thing to recover out of a recession and is likely to take years.

With the mortgage market showing improvements, low interest rates, and having already taken a 20% hit early on, I think it is unlikely we're see any further significant falls, maybe between 5-10% at the very most.

However, with the state of the economy I don't see how HPs can recover either, or show any signs of it rising - not for a good few years at least.

Given the thread on mortgage approvals started by Inspector Monkfish this morning, do you really think the mortgage market is showing improvements?

I'm not sure I do yet...

lostinrates

Generali wrote: »

Cleverer people than me are saying that Bank of America and Citibank are insolvent.

Heard those ion the rumour mill, and other scary names: and some stories that if they improbably do come to pass would impact on UK but in such a way so as not the rest of the global picture, negatively.

I have the weirdest example annoyingly, but cannot give it....:mad::rolleyes:

Alan_M_2

The next problem will be the inevitable increase in interest rates as has been explained on this forum by those far more knowledgeable about these things than I. They will start creeping back up in summer and towards the end of the year.

Unemployment will continue to increase, wages will be squeezed as it will become an employers market.

Banks will continue to hoard money as the requirements for them are tightened by the powers that be.

Mortgages will continue to be hard to come by for anyone other than prime buyers (which make up a large amount of the hosuing market) but FTB's are the key to the market moving....it does after all require a complete chain to move.

There are signs of recovery in my business sector....however the end customer has changed considerably......my last remaining large contractor went bust last week...so I am no longer selling to any company that build or fit out new builds. My entire business is now operating almost solely on refurbishments. People putting in extensions and such as they have no hope (or inclination) of moving house in the current climate.

I'd go with the assessment that we're 2 years into a 4-6 year cycle...then everything plateaus for a while, then the inevitable starts again....next bubble bursts.....2030 you heard it here first!

Dan:_4

lostinrates wrote: »

Thank you . I think 5-10% is reasonably significant. 10% more would be another 50% of what we've already dropped, wouldn't it?

TBH, do think figures when they come through for now, will look more positive, I can't imagine they won't. But on the other hand I hear some more gloomy rumours from the city...I've been reading to see if Bendix might be hearing them too, similar/same rumour route you see.

It would be significant to the average person and the media, but a lot of the FTBers on this baord are still expecting (hoping?) for a lot, lot more, which simply will not happen.

Also, this is where Dithering Dad's arguement comes in. If you wait for another 5-10ish% drop, it could quickly be wiped out with higher mortgage payments when interest rates increase.

the_ash_and_the_oak

Dan: wrote: »

It would be significant to the average person and the media, but a lot of the FTBers on this baord are still expecting (hoping?) for a lot, lot more, which simply will not happen.

Also, this is where Dithering Dad's arguement comes in. If you wait for another 5-10ish% drop, it could quickly be wiped out with higher mortgage payments when interest rates increase.

Kinda feeling this is then countered by the effect higher mortgage payments will have on prices when they arrive tho imo (for new people not existing that is). (side question: when do you think these higher rates are going to come into effect?)

Also not really feeling that its so much that FTBs are waiting primarily - is more I think they don't have enough savings. Still think the main problem isn't whether people can afford to keep what they already have but whether there's enough new people with money saved to keep the prices so high

mp2

Dan: wrote: »

Maybe not green shoots of recovery carolt, but I doubt prices are likely to fall much further.

theres nothing to support it dan. unless mortgage lending goes up significantly, it will keep falling until it does, or prices will reach the equlibrium based on current lending which is far far lower than where we are now.

theres just not enough money in the market at the moment.