NATIONWIDE - UK house prices fall 0.4 pct mm in April

inspector_monkfish

07:00 30Apr09 RTRS-UK HOUSE PRICES -0.4 PCT M/M IN APRIL VS +0.9 PCT MM IN MARCH - NATIONWIDE
07:00 30Apr09 UK HOUSE PRICES -15.0 PCT Y/Y IN APRIL VS -15.7 PCT Y/Y IN MARCH - NATIONWIDE
07:00 30Apr09 UK house prices fall 0.4 pct mm in April-Nationwide

LONDON, April 30 - British house prices resumed their slide in April, data from mortgage lender Nationwide showed on Thursday, suggesting last month's rise was no more than a blip in a downward trend.
Nationwide said the average house price fell 0.4 percent on the month, partly reversing a surprise 0.9 percent rise in March. Prices were 15 percent lower than a year earlier and down a fifth from peaks set in October 2007.

There have been a few tentative signs that housing market activity may be stabilising but little sign yet that prices have found their floor.

The building society said government initiatives to boost lending and help first-time buyers get on the property ladder were welcome but would not turn things around.

"For the most part, buyers will remain cautious as long as they think that prices will continue to fall," said Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide's chief economist.
"Economic fundamentals will continue to dominate housing market prospects," she added.

Britain's economy is expected to shrink by more than 3 percent this year, its sharpest contraction since the Second World War.

While record-low interest rates have fuelled a rise in homebuyer enquiries, mortgage lenders are still reluctant to lend to those without a significant equity cushion.

Job insecurity is also a powerful deterrent. The number of Britons out of work has risen to a decade high above 2 million and is expected to hit 3 million by the end of the year.

chucky

how come the updated version of this graph isn't poster anymore by the doom and gloom ghetto

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I think this was to be expected, more enquiries or even more sales doesn't necessarily mean a floor as been found, this time of year is traditionaly the busiest time of the year, I expect Halifax to post a similar small negative/positive, however with the economic factors being grim, I don't see any kind of floor while this remains the case.

Of course, I'm sure even this negative will be spun into a positive by the media, what they fail to understand though is houseprices never rise 2% a month every month in a boom, neither will they fall 2% every month in a bust, however I do expect to see larger drops MoM, later on in the year, but maybe not as many as we had last year.

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chucky wrote: »

how come the updated version of this graph isn't poster anymore by the doom and gloom ghetto

Because we all know that once the YoY figures have worked through, if you don't know how the graph works (as I'm sure some noobs wouldn't) it can look like falls, to the untrained eye have stopped, when in actual fact they haven't.

A more representative graph now, would be falls over time from peak, which would still show rises in any monthly figure, but whould also show the overall trend as going down, at this time, at least.

julieq

Why do you expect that ad? Tealeaves fall in a particular shape this morning, or is it just complete guesswork?

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julieq wrote: »

Why do you expect that ad? Tealeaves fall in a particular shape this morning, or is it just complete guesswork?

Well I suppose in the end it is just that, guesswork, just like anyone on here who makes a prediction about the future, no need to be @rsey about it:D, it is after all just an opinion like anyone else's, I try to take in as much info as I can find, and then post a comment on what I believe that information has told me.

So not quite tealeaves, I don't just have an opinion based on nothing at all, otherwise there would be little point posting it.;)

inspector_monkfish

seems like the Pound is happy this morning

against the Dollar its up from 1.4790 to 1.4890
in last couple of hours

IveSeenTheLight

Here is the actual link to the report
http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/apr_2009.pdf

Interestingly, house prices actually rose 0.6% from £150,946 to £151,861
The reported 0.4% drop is a seasonally adjusted figure.

Given that the market confidence is lower than in years gone past, it makes sense that the seasonaally adjusted expectations should be less than in years gone by

IveSeenTheLight

chucky wrote: »

how come the updated version of this graph isn't poster anymore by the doom and gloom ghetto

Ok, not the same graphe but some interesting ones taken from the Nationwide report

IveSeenTheLight

chucky wrote: »

how come the updated version of this graph isn't poster anymore by the doom and gloom ghetto

With the above graphs and the below graph on peoples expectations, there does seem to be a turn in peoples beliefs

the_ash_and_the_oak

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

With the above graphs and the below graph on peoples expectations, there does seem to be a turn in peoples beliefs

not sure I agree w above re:beliefs. I think sentiment has actually remained pretty good right the way through - so far at least. Think the general sentiment about houses hasn't been shaken that much at all considering