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US Q1 advance GDP due at 1.30 today....
inspector_monkfish
Posts: 9,276 Forumite
13:16 29Apr09 US: Outlook for US GDP Data
08:15 EST - The 1st release of Q1 GDP data is due at 8.30am ET (12.30gmt), with estimates centered around a decline of 4.7% to 5.0% SAAR. Only a handful of estimates run as high as the 6.3% decline published for Q4, but recall that, in the preliminary (2nd) release of Q4 GDP, the result was worse than the worst estimates. Extraordinary times make for bad forecasts. The composition of GDP is likely to be the overwhelming focus today. If personal consumption comes in as expected (up roughly 1% SAAR) or better and inventory reduction accounts for a big chunk of the decline in output, this will be seen as a good sign.
08:15 EST - The 1st release of Q1 GDP data is due at 8.30am ET (12.30gmt), with estimates centered around a decline of 4.7% to 5.0% SAAR. Only a handful of estimates run as high as the 6.3% decline published for Q4, but recall that, in the preliminary (2nd) release of Q4 GDP, the result was worse than the worst estimates. Extraordinary times make for bad forecasts. The composition of GDP is likely to be the overwhelming focus today. If personal consumption comes in as expected (up roughly 1% SAAR) or better and inventory reduction accounts for a big chunk of the decline in output, this will be seen as a good sign.
Please take the time to have a look around my Daughter's website www.daisypalmertrust.co.uk
(MSE Andrea says ok!)
(MSE Andrea says ok!)
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Comments
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Futures Rise Ahead of Q1 GDP ReportStocks looked to open higher, as [COLOR=#008000! important]Wall[COLOR=#008000! important] Street[/COLOR][/COLOR] awaited the release of the first-quarter gross domestic product, one of the most popular gagues of economic growth or contraction. Shortly before 7:45 a.m., Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures were trading above fair value.The first-quarter reading of the GDP's annual rate of growth is widely expected to have declined again, but the fall is expected to have slowed from the fourth quarter.Signs that the recession may be easing have been coming from various economic indicators over the last month, but the GDP is considered by most economists to be the arbitor of indicators, the best signal of the bunch.
http://www.smartmoney.com/investing/stocks/market-update-wednesday-apr-29-2009-18265/?hpadref=1:wall:
What we've got here is....... failure to communicate.
Some men you just can't reach.
:wall:0 -
IveSeenTheLight wrote: »Futures Rise Ahead of Q1 GDP Report
http://www.smartmoney.com/investing/stocks/market-update-wednesday-apr-29-2009-18265/?hpadref=1
came in worse than expected...
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=1656865Please take the time to have a look around my Daughter's website www.daisypalmertrust.co.uk
(MSE Andrea says ok!)0 -
Those Green Shoots Obama said he could see....he must have gone to specsavers!inspector_monkfish wrote: »
Apparently Europe also see Green Shoots!0 -
Graham_Devon wrote: »Those Green Shoots Obama said he could see....he must have gone to specsavers!
Apparently Europe also see Green Shoots!
The DOW must need specs as well
up 1%. 'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher0 -
The DOW must need specs as well up 1%.
yes, its quite bizarre.......
14:32 29Apr09 US STOCKS CLIMB DESPITE DROP IN GDP
14:32 29Apr09 DOW INDUSTRIALS ADVANCE MORE THAN 70 POINTS
14:33 29Apr09 GAINS SEEN ACROSS THE BOARD; FINANCIALS LEAD
14:46 29Apr09 US Stocks Stronger Despite Poor US GDP Data
DJ US Stocks Stronger Despite Poor US GDP Data
U.S. stocks were stronger Wednesday morning despite a report that showed that the economy contracted sharply in the first quarter.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was higher by about 85 points. The S&P 500 gained 1.2%, supported by jumps in its industrial and financial sectors, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.1%. Health-care stocks, which had rallied amid concerns about the flu outbreak in recent days, were broadly weaker. Pfizer was the only Dow component in negative territory.
The Commerce Department reported that gross domestic product decreased at a 6.1% annual rate in the first quarter. The economy contracted at a 6.3% annual rate in the fourth quarter. With a 0.5% slide in the third quarter, GDP has now fallen in three consecutive quarters. That hasn't happened in 34 years, since the third quarter of 1974 through the first quarter of 1975.
To the surprise of many economists, consumer spending increased 2.2% after dropping by 4.3% in the fourth quarter. But housing took a large bite out of the economy. Residential fixed investment fell 38%, reducing overall GDP by 1.36 percentage points. Fourth-quarter investment had fallen 22.8%, taking 0.80 of a percentage point out of GDP.
Among stocks to watch, Bank of America is due to hold a shareholder meeting at 10 a.m., with a closely watched proxy vote that will decide whether Chief Executive Ken Lewis keeps his board seat as chairman at the banking giant. Its shares were up 4.9%.
Time Warner shares rose 6% after it reported a slimmer-than-expected 14% dip in first-quarter earnings. The company plans to spin off all or parts of America Online to shareholders, the Wall Street Journal reported, though Time Warner said that its board hasn't made a decision. Time Warner Cable, which the parent company also spun off, reported a 31% fall in first-quarter profit, but its
shares were up more than 6%.
Dendreon shares more than doubled in value in early trading, reversing course from a dramatic selloff Tuesday which had come before the company unveiled convincing data on the prostate cancer treatment Provenge.
At 2:15 p.m., EDT, the Federal Reserve will release a policy statement after its two-day meeting. No change in interest rates is expected -- the central bank's fed-funds rate target is a range of zero to 0.25% -- though traders will watch to see whether policy makers decide to expand their purchases of U.S. debt.
The Treasury Department unveiled a record quarterly refunding, saying it will sell $71 billion of new securities next week to refund $52.2 billion in maturing issues and raise about $18.8 billion. The Treasury will also hold 30-year-bond auctions 12 times a year, from the current schedule of eight auctions annually.
Treasury prices were little-changed in morning trading, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year note hovering around 3%.Please take the time to have a look around my Daughter's website www.daisypalmertrust.co.uk
(MSE Andrea says ok!)0 -
Consumer spending up, inventories down, better numbers than Q4 despite reduced government spending. Green Shoots!"The state is the great fiction by which everybody seeks to live at the expense of everybody else." -- Frederic Bastiat, 1848.0
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Consumer spending up, inventories down, better numbers than Q4 despite reduced government spending. Green Shoots!
but worse than market expectationsPlease take the time to have a look around my Daughter's website www.daisypalmertrust.co.uk
(MSE Andrea says ok!)0 -
Remind me again what UK GDP contraction is in Q1?0
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Rochdale_Pioneers wrote: »Remind me again what UK GDP contraction is in Q1?
It was 1.9% in Q1.
The USA measure is an annualized amount for the quarter.
Broadly similar declines if you ask me.US housing: it's not a bubble
Moneyweek, December 20050 -
The headline rate yes, thankfully markets are more complex, subtle and intelligent than headline writing hacksinspector_monkfish wrote: »but worse than market expectations
On an annualised basis around 7.6%.Rochdale_Pioneers wrote: »Remind me again what UK GDP contraction is in Q1?"The state is the great fiction by which everybody seeks to live at the expense of everybody else." -- Frederic Bastiat, 1848.0
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