SARS didn't do the markets a lot of good - what about Swine Flu Epidemic

johnnyfind

It's not looking good...

Bah can't post my link: !!!!!!/U2N4L

amcluesent

No-one with an ounce of sense will go to work tomorrow. Stay away from enclosed spaces of trains, planes etc. Especially planes where the recycled air is a perfect environment to spread the virus.

Instead run to the shops and buy stocks of pulses, canned fruits/soups/veg, powdered milk, paraffin for your storm lamps, bottled water etc. Assume everything in the freezer will go off. Also fill the car to the brim with petrol. You need enough supplies for two weeks without any replenishment from the shops. Be prepared to humanely destroy pets rather than waste food on them.

I doubt many shops will have the masks needed to provide some protection, you need N95 or FFP2 class masks with 3 micron filtration.

Preparing for Emergencies

mewbie_2

What worries me is how the hell am I going to look after my pigs? I'll just have to bring them indoors with me and the kids.

bubblesmoney

see this report from 2003 which predicted this swine flu genetic shift and outbreak in humans. many of the big pandemics in the past have originated or brewed in pigs which provide a crucial brewing atmosphere for intermixing of swine, avian and human viruses allowing intermixing and genetic shift (rather than the more docile genetic drift) to occur. genetic shift in viruses catches the human immunity by surprise as it wouldnt have been exposed to the new strains produced by such drastic shifts that occur in nature.

since the 1918 after the great flu pandemic the swine flu infections in pigs have remained remarkably similar genetically apart from the usual genetic drift seeen with time but around 2003 the genetic shift (instead of drift) happened leading to loads of new strains leading to more virulent infections. this was flagged up as a risk for inter species transmission to humans. but like always money goes to fancy bioterrorism projects and multinationals instead of the more important lower publicity stuff and this seems to have been ignored.

now 6y down the line nature has had the genetic drift+shift and the swine flu has spread to humans. whats worse is that it spreads by human to human contact.

see more details from the 2003 article on swine flu which raises important questions about overcrowding in commercial pig farming that provide a fertile ground for such genetic drifts and shifts. earlier such overcrowding in east asia provided a fertile ground for new strains now the problem is world over at most commercial pig farms. some reports point to a concentration of cases around a commercial pig farm in the recent outbreak.

This is not to say that a smoking gun will never be found: there is already gossip in the Mexican press about an influenza epicentre around a huge Smithfield subsidiary in Veracruz state.

most of the masks shown in the news are not of a standard to keep out viruses. viruses need special masks to keep them out. and even these masks are ineffective if get wet with moisture present in our breath with time. also needs to be worn correctly. plus entry points of viruses is not necessarily only via breathing!

having worn these special masks on previous occassions while participating in training exercises for SARS preparedness at a national centre earmarked for SARS cases many years ago when the SARS drama started, i can say that the masks arent that comfortable to wear for long and it gets stuffy. plus if the outbreak were that huge then hospitals would be overwhelmed as staff would be affected as well. also i remember that for SARS isolation facilities they had provided my earlier place of work with special body suits etc. if ever such a patient need intensive care then working in such body suits would be a challenge to who ever was wearing them as they are far from comfortable or practical for intensive medical work. medical workers seem to have been affected in mexico. see some extracts from bbc

The number of cases increases significantly every day. The number of fatalities is also increasing. At least three doctors are said to have died from swine flu. There is great fear among the medical community. We know that the situation is very serious and that we are at high risk of infection.
But we are more scared of carrying it into our homes and infecting our loved ones. One of my colleagues that was exposed chose to stay in a hotel rather than run the risk of infecting her daughters.
These fears are getting worse as we realise that it is not possible to get antiviral drugs from pharmacies and that in the health sector they are close to being delivered in droppers.
Despite this, the government says that it can rely on antiviral drugs to treat a million cases. We do not have easy access to these, even though we are part of the health sector.
In one hospital doctors were given the anti-viral rimantadine, even though there is resistance to this drug. Also, fewer samples are being taken from severe cases, as there is a lack of means of transporting and cultivating the samples.
Dr Guadalupe

........

I'm a doctor responsible for managing vaccines in the northern Mexican state of Nuevo Leon.
Over the last two weeks we started seeing patients with high fever, muscle aches, sore throats and coughs. Those symptoms seemed a bit odd for us, but we didn't diagnose them with swine flu as we didn't know about it.
On Sunday we had our first death in the area. It was someone who came from Mexico City. But we don't have the means to confirm whether it was as a result of swine flu.

More than anything, we lack equipment and laboratory kits. All we can do is look at the symptoms and make a clinical diagnosis.
In the pharmacies, there is no Tamiflu available. They only have another medication and they don't even have enough of that.
So the vaccines we have are not enough we don't have the medication required. People here are not aware that this flu outbreak can kill people.
On behalf of all the medical community in Nuevo Leon I'd like to ask for help to get the medication, so we can treat people.
We need to have the means to diagnose people and, most importantly, the means to offer them treatment.
Dr Vicente Torres, Monterrey, Nuevo Leon, Mexico

.....

I am a doctor and I work in the State of Mexico. I don't work in the shock team; I am in the echocardiography team, but I do get some news from my colleagues in the hospital. There have been some cases of young people dying from respiratory infections, but this happened before the alert and they were not reported because the necessary tests weren't done. We doctors knew this was happening a week before the alert was issued and were told to get vaccinated. I went to buy some anti-virals for my husband, who is also a doctor, because he had contact with a young patient who presented influenza symptoms and died. I don't think pharmacies stock enough anti-virals.
I understand the government doesn't want to generate panic, but my personal opinion is that they issued the alert too late. Still now, the population is not getting the information they need. We have been out in the street and some people are not wearing face masks and are not taking any preventive measures.
Guadalupe, Mexico City

..........

I'm a specialist doctor in respiratory diseases and intensive care at the Mexican National Institute of Health. There is a severe emergency over the swine flu here. More and more patients are being admitted to the intensive care unit. Despite the heroic efforts of all staff (doctors, nurses, specialists, etc) patients continue to inevitably die. The truth is that anti-viral treatments and vaccines are not expected to have any effect, even at high doses. It is a great fear among the staff. The infection risk is very high among the doctors and health staff.
There is a sense of chaos in the other hospitals and we do not know what to do. Staff are starting to leave and many are opting to retire or apply for holidays. The truth is that mortality is even higher than what is being reported by the authorities, at least in the hospital where I work it. It is killing three to four patients daily, and it has been going on for more than three weeks. It is a shame and there is great fear here. Increasingly younger patients aged 20 to 30 years are dying before our helpless eyes and there is great sadness among health professionals here.
Antonio Chavez, Mexico City

........

I think there is a real lack of information and sadly, preventative action. In the capital of my state, Oaxaca, there is a hospital closed because of a death related to the porcine influenza. In the papers they recognise only two people dead for that cause. Many friends working in hospitals or related fields say that the situation is really bad, they are talking about 19 people dead in Oaxaca, including a doctor and a nurse. They say they got shots but they were told not to talk about the real situation. Our authorities say nothing. Life goes on as usual here.
Young people are going to schools and universities. Buses and planes go and come from Mexico City as frequently as before. Even with two people dead locally, last night the local baseball stadium was full, mainly with young people. What's really happening? I know vaccines are good for nothing, and if you take care, maybe you won't die, so, why not acknowledge the real situation? I know that the economic situation is not the best, and it will worsen with panic. But panic comes from a lack of information. Many people travel for pleasure or without any real need. Stopping those unjustified trips can help a lot to ease the situation. We must do something!
Alvaro Ricardez, Oaxaca City, Oaxaca, Mexico

............

I work as a resident doctor in one of the biggest hospitals in Mexico City and sadly, the situation is far from "under control". As a doctor, I realise that the media does not report the truth. Authorities distributed vaccines among all the medical personnel with no results, because two of my partners who worked in this hospital (interns) were killed by this new virus in less than six days even though they were vaccinated as all of us were. The official number of deaths is 20, nevertheless, the true number of victims are more than 200. I understand that we must avoid to panic, but telling the truth it might be better now to prevent and avoid more deaths.
Yeny Gregorio D!vila, Mexico City

i remember reading elsewhere today (dont remember where) that the authorities have ordered the medical staff not to speak to the press in mexico or something of that sort now.

guess the best bet will be antiviral drugs till the elusive vaccine is manufactured (if ever) or the virus dies a natural death or mutates into less virulent forms with time.

tomterm8

mewbie wrote: »

What worries me is how the hell am I going to look after my pigs? I'll just have to bring them indoors with me and the kids.

There are no reported cases of it spreading from pig to pig. It is much more likely to catch it from you. Therefore, leave it outside, and feed it while respecting basic hygeine, like washing your hand before touching the pig, and covering your nose when you sneeze.

iltisman

I bet getting anti virals out of the NHS will be almost impossible if this really takes hold in the UK.If you go with early symptoms they will tell you that you have a cold and clear off.Then a week later when you are deaths door they will tell you it is too advanced for anti virals.

michaels

I predict no long life food in the supermarkets by tomorrow night and petrol becoming harder to find with queues at filling stations.

GDB2222

amcluesent wrote: »

No-one with an ounce of sense will go to work tomorrow. Stay away from enclosed spaces of trains, planes etc. Especially planes where the recycled air is a perfect environment to spread the virus.

Instead run to the shops and buy stocks of pulses, canned fruits/soups/veg, powdered milk, paraffin for your storm lamps, bottled water etc. Assume everything in the freezer will go off. Also fill the car to the brim with petrol. You need enough supplies for two weeks without any replenishment from the shops. Be prepared to humanely destroy pets rather than waste food on them.

I doubt many shops will have the masks needed to provide some protection, you need N95 or FFP2 class masks with 3 micron filtration.

It's a bit early for panic shopping, although there have been posts here in the past about laying in stocks of baked beans and water.

Also, it is not clear why the Scots who got the flu have had only mild symptoms. Do we just possibly have some immunity in this country from pandemics in the past?

Finally, on the face masks, just over £2 each - try this link:
http://www.screwfix.com/cats/A331070/Workwear-PPE/Protective-Clothing/Respiratory-Protection

Davesnave

Finally, on the face masks, just over £2 each - try this link:
http://www.screwfix.com/cats/A331070...ory-Protection

Very expensive! You've missed the boat for all the the cheaper ones.

Of course I saw this coming and bought mine last week, before all the MPI.

I can rent you a folded hanky in Peckham, if you're quick...:rotfl:

misskool

normal face masks do nothing except give a false sense of security.much better to concentrate on good hygiene practice.