Official GDP forecasts to be slashed in UK Budget

inspector_monkfish

FROM REUTERS....

10:10 22Apr09 Official GDP forecasts to be slashed in UK Budget

09:10 GMT - Central to today's [UK BUDGET] will be the expected and dramatic revision to Govt [GROWTH F/CS] with Chanc Darling predicted to opt for something close to a 3.5% contraction this year vs his central target of -1.0% in the Nov pre-budget. Note that the OECD is forecasting a 3.7% drop in UK output this year, the IMF -3.8% and the CBI -3.9%. Any of these estimates would mark the largest annual contraction since 1945.

Crucial for the path of public finances will also be the speed of the recovery with Darling expected to veer towards calling a v-shaped recession. He is likely to say the economy will start to pick up by year end and that official figs will show positive growth in Q1. In Nov he predicted a 1.5-2.0% growth rate for 2010 and 3% in the following 3 years.

Market consensus for next year is for a small 0-0.5% rise in GDP.

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inspector_monkfish wrote: »

FROM REUTERS....

10:10 22Apr09 Official GDP forecasts to be slashed in UK Budget

09:10 GMT - Central to today's [UK BUDGET] will be the expected and dramatic revision to Govt [GROWTH F/CS] with Chanc Darling predicted to opt for something close to a 3.5% contraction this year vs his central target of -1.0% in the Nov pre-budget. Note that the OECD is forecasting a 3.7% drop in UK output this year, the IMF -3.8% and the CBI -3.9%. Any of these estimates would mark the largest annual contraction since 1945.

Crucial for the path of public finances will also be the speed of the recovery with Darling expected to veer towards calling a v-shaped recession. He is likely to say the economy will start to pick up by year end and that official figs will show positive growth in Q1. In Nov he predicted a 1.5-2.0% growth rate for 2010 and 3% in the following 3 years.

Market consensus for next year is for a small 0-0.5% rise in GDP.

Anybody with an ounce of common sense could see his figures in the pre-budget report last year were a joke, he'd better not try and bull$hit the markets again today, although considering he's only a year from becoming a 'Lord' when his party gets massacred at the polls, I doubt he cares.

lostinrates

But its going to be up 1.25% in 2010.

Generali

And up 3.5% in 2011.

Mon cul as the French would say.

lostinrates

Generali wrote: »

And up 3.5% in 2011.

Mon cul as the French would say.

C'est de poulet.

Vraiment, c'est une blague.

ruggedtoast

I'm fairly sure that boom and bust is over, house prices are both going up exponentially and not out of control, britain is immune from recession, facing hard times due to America, and that green shoots are shooting, but only for hard working families.

Graham_Devon

Debt at 79% of GDP in 2013!!!!

And thats the government forecast.

Holy !!!!!!!

lostinrates

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Debt at 79% of GDP in 2013!!!!

And thats the government forecast.

Holy !!!!!!!

Indeed. Very scary.

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Graham_Devon wrote: »

Debt at 79% of GDP in 2013!!!!

And thats the government forecast.

Holy !!!!!!!

What is staggering is borrowing will be 12% of GDP this year, looks like the IMF graph that was pulled, is in fact pretty much bang on the money. The UK is in really really bad shape, house prices rises anyone ?, forget it.

ruggedtoast

ad9898 wrote: »

What is staggering is borrowing will be 12% of GDP this year, looks like the IMF graph that was pulled, is in fact pretty much bang on the money. The UK is in really really bad shape, house prices rises anyone ?, forget it.

No no green shoots are showing house prices only ever go up britain is best placed to boom during the bust.

AND dont forget 3 extra people got a mortgage last month which is a 213% rise on the month before.

Green shoots!

nobby24

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Debt at 79% of GDP in 2013!!!!

And thats the government forecast.

Holy !!!!!!!

That means nothing to me, compared to how much in 2008?