House sales jump 40% in March

1984ReturnsForReal_2

Cat695 wrote: »

I would like to point out it does not say HOUSE PRICES ARE INCREASING!!!

Sorry I forgot the link....ooops

So did the BBC & HMRC!

Graham_Devon

chucky wrote: »

lol - that's not great.

just shows you that the numbers that are provided are not 100% accurate and don't really tell us what is going on.

This is why I'm wondering why they do it and the media just pedals it out.

I guess is IS correct. There were x amount of sales in March. BUT, it's one thing saying there are x amount of sales, when only (just plucked out of the air) a quarter of them actually get sold.

Does the CML have a VI? I'm not sure.

chucky

ad9898 wrote: »

Agree Dan, however prices still fell for 4 years from '92 onwards, with unemployment falling, taxes falling, public debt falling, personal debt, non existant by todays standards and IR's falling.

Apart from IR's all the above are increasing this time, and we all know, including the markets where IR's will go in the future, the future being very important if we have outstanding loans that go past 2-3 years.

not that you can derive anything from this but from the last recessions...

Peak was Q4 79 dropping until Q2 82 (2.5 years).

Peak was Q2 89, dropping until Q4 95 (6.5 years).

So comparing it to 1992 isn't the best comparison as the early 80s recession was only 2.5 years for house prices to recover.

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I've just done a google search, and it seems CML figures DO include sold subject to contract.

I.e. the house is sold, therefore, thats a sale. Whether it's completed is a seperate thing, and calculated under completions, which the land registry does.

What the gross mortgage lending figures!

If that is the case I would say your goggling is as reliable as Dave the pubs dog.

StevieJ

Dan: wrote: »

Yes but in 1991 prices had only fallen by less then 10%.

And interest rates were sky high :eek:

Graham_Devon

Really2 wrote: »

What the gross mortgage lending figures!

If that is the case I would say your goggling is as reliable as Dave the pubs dog.

Well I've put the question out twice and have said I'm willing for anyone to correct me.

So instead of just going for the insult, you could correct me if I'm wrong?

ad9898_3

Dan: wrote: »

Yes, but, prices only fell another 10ish% during those 4 years to total around 20% fall peak to trough. So, you could argue that the same crash has happened this time, only much quicker.

I agree they only fell another 10% over that period (and to be honest that would be more than enough for me if it happened this time), but I still feel the recession is much worse this time, GDP decline this year is going to be off the scale.

For what it's worth, my feeling is the bounce that we may well be seeing is due to cash/cash rich buyers who have sat on the sidelines for a while and have now decided to jump in, don't forget if a chain is say 5 houses long, it only needs one cash buyer at the bottom for everyone to complete.

If I'm honest, if I had the cash, I would probably buy now, not because I don't think prices will fall any more than they have done, just that if I had the title deeds in my hand, and they weren't resting with mortgage company I'd feel fine, and wouldn't care less where house prices went after that, as it would be my home, as it is a cash purchase is still 3 years away.

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Well I've put the question out twice and have said I'm willing for anyone to correct me.

So instead of just going for the insult, you could correct me if I'm wrong?

Could you post link for your info for me as I am strugling to find it?

As far as I know it was esstimated on mortgage approvals.

How are the CML going to find out how many homes went SSTC?

chucky

ad9898 wrote: »

If I'm honest, if I had the cash, I would probably buy now, not because I don't think prices will fall any more than they have done, just that if I had the title deeds in my hand, and they weren't resting with mortgage company I'd feel fine, and wouldn't care less where house prices went after that, as it would be my home, as it is a cash purchase is still 3 years away.

there are obviously many more people with a similar view on the current climate.

as long as the price is right it doesn't really matter when you buy.

Graham_Devon

Really2 wrote: »

Could you post link for your info for me as I am strugling to find it?

As far as I know it was esstimated on mortgage approvals.

How are the CML going to find out how many homes went SSTC?

Theres not one link. Hence why I stated what I did and was cautious to say "they do".

And it's very easy for the CML to find out what went SSTC. The mortgage lenders will be the ones denying the funds to allow the sale to complete. Plus estate agents would keep all this info which is complied somewhere.

I'm only asking the question. If you can tell me different, tell me. But there is no point saying I'm wrong, and then asking me questions about it to try and trip me up. I don't know, so thats why I asked!!

The other thing that does not add up is the CML stated that the average value of these houses sold added up to 40k.

That would suggest also that because loads did not sell when it came to contract stage, the average of those actually completed has plummeted to 40k a house.

Again, please correct me if I am wrong and this average value of 40k a house, is actually a true value. Because I would love to know where the 10k houses are to bring that average down so low.