Cheltenham resists price crash

penguine

Or should that be "Sellers in Cheltenham are in denial more than anywhere else"?

Cheltenham, the genteel town on the edge of the Cotswolds, has emerged almost unscathed from the housing crash over the past six months, with average property prices down by just 0.2% since last autumn, according to a new survey which identifies the most resilient spots in Britain's crisis-hit market.

The asking price for the average house in Cheltenham was £220,498 in September 2008, and is still £219,999 today, according to property search-engine Globrix.

From yesterday's Guardian. (The headline which I've quoted above was from the print version; it's different on the website.)

RabbitMad

Well I disagree with the statement about denial - Cheltenham is a nice place and its only forced sellers that drive the market in a down turn. If nobody in Cheltenham NEEDS to sell then why can't prices stay put.

However there are lies, lies and statistics, all this survey says is that the asking prices haven't dropped since last September - they have dropped since the september before.

Plus the actual purchase prices in Cheltenham were the asking price or higher 2 years back, now they will be 5-10% below asking prices.

blondends

My wife and I are looking to purchase in Cheltenham and prices are indeed high. We have viewed all properties currently on the market that match our requirements and have not come across one which we like enough to consider viewing a second time. We are now waiting for properties to come on to the market which to me suggests that supply and demand, in Cheltenham at least, is still weighted towards Sellers.

izzybusy23

blondends wrote: »

My wife and I are looking to purchase in Cheltenham and prices are indeed high. We have viewed all properties currently on the market that match our requirements and have not come across one which we like enough to consider viewing a second time. We are now waiting for properties to come on to the market which to me suggests that supply and demand, in Cheltenham at least, is still weighted towards Sellers.

Cheltenham is holiding its prices because of the racecourse and thinking its a prestigious town.. why don't you try the surrounding area's instead? I live between Glos and Chelt and house prices are coming down, albeit not as quickly as I would like. Cheltenham is nice enough but so are the surrounding area's.

penguine

RabbitMad wrote: »

its only forced sellers that drive the market in a down turn.

Not necessarily. People still choose to move for all the normal reasons, getting a job in a new area, growing family, downsizing for retirement etc.

All it takes is one "realistic" seller to set the new price for a street.

RabbitMad

penguine wrote: »

Not necessarily. People still choose to move for all the normal reasons, getting a job in a new area, growing family, downsizing for retirement etc.

All it takes is one "realistic" seller to set the new price for a street.

yes and no as blondends says - there is more demand in Cheltenham then supply so they are "realistic" sellers.

Also all those normal reasons for moving mean nothing if the house the realistic seller wants isn't realistically priced.

Plus as I pointed out Cheltenham prices have moved south, but have stabalised sooner than other areas. I feel that this is a short respite and they will head south again later in the year but my guess is as good as anybodies.

RabbitMad

I've been having a little play based upon some SSTC asking prices on right move for the GL51 3WH* postcode.

2 x 2beds have asking prices of £145,000 and £149,950. Property to rent on RM is advertised between £625 and £640 for this postcode and the surrounding area.

So assuming 0% HPI, 0% RPI (i.e rent won't increase) then it is cheaper to buy rather than rent over a 3.5 year period or longer. I think this means the prices in this area are there or thereabouts the correct value. However I don't think the market has the level of confidence required to reconise this (no further falls) so I reckon that the prices will go down until a repayment mortgage is cheaper than the rent so I expect the bottom of the market to be about £130,000 for this area.

*I've chosen this postcode as I know the area and I know that 2 bed house prices increased from approx £85,000 in Nov 2000 to £175,000 in June 2007 when I sold up and moved out.

Another thought I have had is one reason house prices in Cheltenham are "holding up" is that they didn't jump as much during the boom as they were already expensive. People desperate to get on the ladder (Prop up the pyramid) at any cost picked cheaper properties and flats etc.

I think I need to get some cash together as I see the time is almost right to buy back into the BTL market.

System

Having lived in Cheltenham for 2 years this doesn't surprise me, lovely place.

Edit: Shame about the footy team.

Sultana

Joeskeppi wrote: »

Having lived in Cheltenham for 2 years this doesn't surprise me, lovely place.
.

I don't think the 6,000 people who work at GCHQ are too worried about their jobs either.

Having said that I think asking prices did drop quite sharply last summer just before the start point for this survey.