Ok, so lets take this seriously.

skap7309

People and the media are entirely within their rights to report anything they want.

The way i see it is that mortgages are still going to be rejected 10 fold if the sheeple believe everything they hear, prices are going to be kept artificially high, houses are not going to shift and the crash is just going to be extended far longer than necessary. When IR's NEED to be raised that will be the final nail in the coffin for the housing market. Granted, ATM it is going to be very temping for many (myself included) but if it is struggling along now what will it be like with 8% rates?

I think there will be two stages to this crash, we are at the end of stage one. The housing market is looking attractive for many and IRs alone are the reason for this. When they are raised we enter stage two and the cycle is started all over again. A bit like the 90's crash where many thought it had ended and then there was another 4 years of falls.

From a personal point of view this plays directly into my hands because it gives me far longer to save for a deposit. Long may it continue.

Graham_Devon

Really2 wrote: »

why, anyone out of the market for over 6 months is a FTB.

Why? Because some STR's who would be included in the savings figures for FTB's would totally skew any figure.

STR's classed as FTB's will not be keeping the housing cycle going, so there, in my mind, is no point in including these people into FTB calculations.

I'm talking first time buyers who will be able to go in and buy your average starter home, relieving the current owners to go and buy another home, which keeps the whole cycle going.

Without those people, the housing market is up the creek.

I saw some fgures posted by someone, may have been on here, and it included STR's and BTL landlords, and made it look as if FTB's were sitting on way above average chunks of money, which simply was not the case, but it was used to say FTB's have the means to go and buy.

Really2

ninky wrote: »

owners of the business my OH works for seem to think the recession is coming to an end. it's construction related (they are the biggest company in their specialization in europe) and they've just had a load of new orders in and have been asking staff to do overtime etc.

strange.

I think the main point we will show negative growth for the remainder of the year. Many on here forget a 0.1% decline on GDP of the previous 1/4 keeps us in recession for another 1/4. It takes half a year of growth to get us out of recession.

So 1st 1/4 of next year to start growth would not mean we were out of recession until the middle of next year.

StevieJ

Graham_Devon wrote: »

So how. Seriously. Would love some of the more optimistic ones to explain how we can defy every other country who is in, or approaching recession, and come out quicker and reach the bottom in the matter of what, 5 months after such a HUGE boom?

Genuine question and I'm looking for genuine answers and would like a polite debate!!!

Where do you get 5 months from when Gdp went negative in Q2 2008 and has been negative ever since

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Why? Because some STR's who would be included in the savings figures for FTB's would totally skew any figure.

STR's classed as FTB's will not be keeping the housing cycle going, so there, in my mind, is no point in including these people into FTB calculations.

.

Graham they helped the market fall in price quickly how can you then say they will "skew" the figures when they buy?

Are you going to say house price fall were not as much because STR's skewed the figures.

Anyone trading in the property market is relevant as they all compete for the same houses.

Jonbvn

SingleSue wrote: »

Think it might be called trying to talk our way out of the recession.......

We have to remember that ecomics is not a real "science", in the true sense of the word. It really boils down to peoples confidence (or lack of) and perception. Therefore,if you can convince the majority of people that things are getting better, then things will improve.

Graham_Devon

Really2 wrote: »

Graham they helped the market fall in price quickly how can you then say they will "skew" the figures when they buy?

Are you going to say house price fall were not as much because STR's skewed the figures.

Anyone trading in the property market is relevant as they all compete for the same houses.

I see what you mean and I'm not looking to argue about the definition.

So can I just rephrase it, and say, genuine first time buyers? Thanks

Masomnia

Graham_Devon wrote: »

So how. Seriously. Would love some of the more optimistic ones to explain how we can defy every other country who is in, or approaching recession, and come out quicker and reach the bottom in the matter of what, 5 months after such a HUGE boom?

I think it's possible that two different issues are being confused here. The housing market certainly has boomed over the last decade, but I'm not convinced that the economy itself has. The two are linked of course, but a recovery in the economy is not the same as a recovery in housing markets, and vice versa.

We went into recession almost a year ago now, so I don't think it's too rediculous to think that we'll come out of it a year or so later. If it's as dependent on the banks as we've been led to believe, then the positive results starting to come from that sector could lead to the beginning of the end in my view.

SingleSue

Dan: wrote: »

In early 1990 the crash was at the very early stages, so it would have been the equivalent of buying in late 2007 believing all the hype at the credit crunch would not lead to significant house prices falls or a recession.

Not really, the crash had been going on for a fair while by the time we purchased our house (we were actually later than others, same this time, our peak was 1 year ago exactly). The house we purchased had already reduced by 20k, a very sizeable sum in those days!

When we purchased our house, it was in very much the same time scale from the start of dropping house prices as to now...which is why I think it is dangerous. Yes it was a fairly new build property which accounted for a fair amount of the drop but the prices had been dropping for about the same as they have so far, in this area (the in this area is important as every area is different and would start dropping/rising at different times, same as with average house price)

We were young once and exciteable and willing to believe the media and I dare say there will be a fair few gullible ones like we were now.

SingleSue

skap7309 wrote: »

People and the media are entirely within their rights to report anything they want.

The way i see it is that mortgages are still going to be rejected 10 fold if the sheeple believe everything they hear, prices are going to be kept artificially high, houses are not going to shift and the crash is just going to be extended far longer than necessary. When IR's NEED to be raised that will be the final nail in the coffin for the housing market. Granted, ATM it is going to be very temping for many (myself included) but if it is struggling along now what will it be like with 8% rates?

I think there will be two stages to this crash, we are at the end of stage one. The housing market is looking attractive for many and IRs alone are the reason for this. When they are raised we enter stage two and the cycle is started all over again. A bit like the 90's crash where many thought it had ended and then there was another 4 years of falls.

From a personal point of view this plays directly into my hands because it gives me far longer to save for a deposit. Long may it continue.

Ah, you said it so much better than me, I must stop being emotive!

Your point about the 90's crash was what I was trying to get over....