Recession will be very long lasting. Or maybe it's almost over

penguine

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/apr/16/imf-warns-severe-long-lasting-recession

The IMF says the recession will be unusually long-lasting.

When many countries are involved, plunging into recession simultaneously, downturns also tend to be longer. This time, it finds that 65% of the world's countries are in recession – more than at any other time since 1960.

This toxic combination of banking collapse and synchronised recession leads the IMF to predict that the current recession is likely to be particularly painful, and it urges rich and poor countries to work together to build a co-ordinated response, instead of tackling crisis-hit countries one by one.

But the new Bank of England member says it's almost over.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/apr/16/recession-over-david-miles-bank-of-england

The Bank of England is pumping £75bn into the economy through a process called quantitative easing in an effort to ease credit conditions. Miles said: "Economic history teaches us that a combination of tax cuts, running large fiscal deficits, substantial cuts in interest rates and more quantitative easing is likely, with a certain time lag, to have a substantial impact on demand in the economy and it may well be that the worst of the recession may well be behind us. That's not a confident prediction but a judgement about what may be the case."

lostinrates

penguine wrote: »

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/apr/16/imf-warns-severe-long-lasting-recession

The IMF says the recession will be unusually long-lasting.



But the new Bank of England member says it's almost over.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/apr/16/recession-over-david-miles-bank-of-england

LOL, well, its balanced!

I think they are telling the truth. Both of them.

mewbie_2

This what I think. <everyone groans>. Recession is when things are falling, quarter on quarter. Nothing can keep falling for ever. So recession as strictly defined will end. Possibly soon. But recession in people's minds, as in things are bad, investments are poor, economy is failing, unemployment, etc. - well that 'recession' could carry on for some considerable time.

geoffky

If this recession is near its end ( which i think is absolute tosh) it will be the easiest recession that i have had the pleasure to experience and all the others must of been ten times worse than this one?

MrDT

mewbie wrote: »

This what I think. <everyone groans>. Recession is when things are falling, quarter on quarter. Nothing can keep falling for ever. So recession as strictly defined will end. Possibly soon. But recession in people's minds, as in things are bad, investments are poor, economy is failing, unemployment, etc. - well that 'recession' could carry on for some considerable time.

Bang on the money imo.

mewbie_2

MrDT wrote: »

:rotfl:

Bang on the money imo.

Oh.er. thanks. I was just re-reading it (I'm sad that way) and was thinking "I didn't really get that quite right". Especially because Cleaver (the mad bull) thanked me, and therefore I must not have got my bear point across clearly enough.

edit: Oh dear. All the bloody bulls are thanking me.

Really2

geoffky wrote: »

If this recession is near its end ( which i think is absolute tosh) it will be the easiest recession that i have had the pleasure to experience and all the others must of been ten times worse than this one?

It will be any way you have no job or house to worry about losing.
I don't think you could ever look back and think this one is worse for you than any of the others.

Dan:_4

geoffky wrote: »

If this recession is near its end ( which i think is absolute tosh) it will be the easiest recession that i have had the pleasure to experience and all the others must of been ten times worse than this one?

Just because you get through it okay dosen't mean it will be the easiest recession for everyone else.

lostinrates

Really2 wrote: »

It will be any way you have no job or house to worry about losing.
I don't think you could ever look back and think this one is worse for you than any of the others.

Actually, scarily, I was about to propose a similar submission....that you might be more comfortable going into this one with your large saving pot and no debt and that might colour your attitude and coping mechanism?

bo_drinker

mewbie wrote: »

This what I think. <everyone groans>. Recession is when things are falling, quarter on quarter. Nothing can keep falling for ever. So recession as strictly defined will end. Possibly soon. But recession in people's minds, as in things are bad, investments are poor, economy is failing, unemployment, etc. - well that 'recession' could carry on for some considerable time.

The after effects will last for years

Really2

lostinrates wrote: »

Actually, scarily, I was about to propose a similar submission....that you might be more comfortable going into this one with your large saving pot and no debt and that might colour your attitude and coping mechanism?

I would only think so if you were not working,
If you were saving for a house I would be bricking it like everyone else because you could end up losing all your savings if you lost your job.