Experts say wait 5 years to buy back into property

Radiantsoul

crazygaijin wrote: »

The last crash inthe 90s did take more than 5 years to reach bottom.

This time however things are going to be far worse. The average price went far higher above the mean average than it did in the last crash. So will have further to fall which will take longer.

I`d say 5 years from now before bottom is about right (7yrs total). Look at this graph again,

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/property/uk-house-prices-will-plummet-look-at-this-scary-chart-14664.aspx

we are not even in capitulation yet, we have a long way to fall.

That chart is nonsense. It is just words applied to a curve, it probably doesn't explain every crash and you can't explain the relative scale of each phase.

Cleaver

Radiantsoul wrote: »

That chart is nonsense. It is just words applied to a curve.

I can tell you from experience that that type of comment doesn't get you many marks in a Statistics 'A' Level exam.

whathavewedone

RDB I seem to recall from another post when I mentioned on a thread I wasn't working because my children are 1 and 2 (well just turned 3 now) that you accused me of draining your taxes having jumped to the (entirely wrong) conclusion that I was a single mum on benefits and the government was paying my mortgage.

You were very worked up about the fact that you were going to have to back to work after your maternity leave in order for you and your husband to pay the rent and the bills.

Seems to me that you're a rather bitter person, begrudging people poorer than you any of your uniquely hard earned taxes and so horribly jealous of people who have more than you that you spend your time fantasising about them and their families being out on the street. (Going on a couple of your recent posts).

Has it ever occurred to you that if all your economic wet dreams come true then you might lose that job you depend on. What if your husband loses his job? You might then have to claim benefits and become one of those awful people you hate so much.

Be careful what you wish for.

chucky

novazombie wrote: »

Why is this crash taking so much longer than any others in history?

In the 90s crash it only lasted a couple of years and once it started prices fell quite quickly. This time its taking ages.

It started in 2007 and now its 2009 and we are only 20% down. Moneyweek is saying wait 5 years before the bottom. Well thats longer than any other crash ever. Why so long and drawn out this time?

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/property/its-time-to-get-back-into-property-asian-property-14660.aspx

"I think it will be at least five years before I'd consider buying property in Britain. "

you forgot to mention this will happen in some areas - other areas will be bouncing back whilst others are still struggling, so it won't be 5 years everywhere in the UK.

mewbie_2

chucky wrote: »

you forgot to mention this will happen in some areas - other areas will be bouncing back whilst others are still struggling, so it won't be 5 years everywhere in the UK.

It's like hearing the first cuckoo...

StevieJ

Chucky, you are letting them get to you, why should it be 5 years anywhere. Falls have been quicker this time (not slower) and huge stimulus packages are in place that may create high inflation including (low interest rates 15% in the 90's:D). The original article was a joke it only had the one throw away line with absoloutely no crtical analysis.

chucky

StevieJ wrote: »

Chucky, you are letting them get to you, why should it be 5 years anywhere. Falls have been quicker this time (not slower) and huge stimulus packages are in place that may create high inflation including (low interest rates 15% in the 90's:D). The original article was a joke it only had the one throw away line with absoloutely no crtical analysis.

good point it will be two years - let's just hope that people can afford to buy

mewbie_2

StevieJ wrote: »

Chucky, you are letting them get to you, why should it be 5 years anywhere. Falls have been quicker this time (not slower) and huge stimulus packages are in place that may create high inflation including (low interest rates 15% in the 90's:D). The original article was a joke it only had the one throw away line with absoloutely no crtical analysis.

We've just had eight years of total madness, including a BTL bonanza built entirely on HPI and massive geared borrowings. Enough to collapse, or nearly collapse the whole global economy.

A two year correction and business as usual isn't my expectation. But hey - it takes two views to make a market.

bluey890

in the current climate everyone is an expert, they all saw it coming, in hindsight.
couldnt believe them b4, whyis it different now.

StevieJ

There is a tendency for the future to be not quite what people expect good or bad